Basic Draft Strategies - 2008

Every year in fantasy football, we face new challenges, mainly based upon the perceptions of our opponents. The drafting strategy that won you that championship last season may make you an also-ran this year.

I have always been a fan of Warren Buffett (and his son Jimmy), so years ago, when I started fantasy football, I tried the "zig when others zag" philosophy. Well, the problem with that was that while you were zigging with wide receivers and/or quarterbacks in the first few rounds, the rest of the league was zagging you out of all the decent running backs.

Since fantasy football began sometime in the 1980's, it has been obvious that having a strong running game is the key to winning championships. Running backs give you the most consistent production on a week-to-week basis. Thus, the mantra of drafting running backs in each of the first two rounds was created. If you did not follow the herd, you were stuck with the Jones brothers (Julius and Thomas) as your starting backfield last year, and you had plenty of time to concentrate on Christmas shopping for your family come December.

Ah, but things are starting to change this year. Teams are starting to pass more often, and there are more backfield tandem situations, where you don't have one back consistently getting 20+ carries per game. So the herd is starting to think about taking the top QBs and WRs in the first two rounds, instead of just going RB-RB. I've even seen some reputable sites (i.e. sites better than this one) espousing a WR-WR strategy. So how do we take advantage of this situation?

I still think that running backs will win championships. Even a receiver like Randy Moss can be shut down by a defense that is good enough and determined enough to do so, because Brady will recognize the defensive strategy and get the ball to Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Watson, etc. However, even when the defense gangs up on Ladanian Tomlinson, he will still get 15-20 carries and a few catches. He at least has the opportunity to break one that Moss may not get in such a situation.

So, the first round is still for running backs, in my opinion. I would take any of the top 8 running backs on my list (including Frank Gore) before thinking about taking a wide receiver. If you are at the back end of the first round and these 8 guys are gone and Randy Moss is still available, then you can take him. Just be sure to get a running back in round 2. Don't even think about a QB yet (more on that later).

In round two, it is OK to veer from the RB-RB draft strategy for the first time in years. If one of the top 8 RB's is still available, you should gleefully jump on him, but if not, the RB talent that will be taken in round 2 won't be much different from the talent that is available in round 3. Any of the top 6 wide receivers on my list (including Braylon Edwards) would be a good pick here. If all 14 of these guys are gone, then the next WR on my list is Brandon Marshall, but this is way too early to pick him up. Skip down in the list to get TJ Houshmanzadeh - you should be able to pick up Marshall in the 5th or 6th rounds of most drafts.

In Rounds 3 and 4, continue to fill in your starting RB's and WR's. After round 4, you should have 2 RB's and 2 WR's.

Round 5 depends on your league's rules. If you start 3 WR's, you definitely want to pick up your 3rd WR here (here is where Marshall would be a good choice). If you have a flex position, you also will want to draft a WR to fill it, as the WR's available here will score more points than the available RB's. If you don't have a 3rd WR or flex, then get your 3rd RB here. Although he won't be a week 1 starter on your team, I can guarantee you will need him, and you don't want to start the dregs that will be left over in rounds 9 and 10 starting at a RB slot when your normal starter goes down with an injury.

Round 6 is where you can finally start thinking about taking a quarterback. Many of your league mates have already taken one, so by waiting this late, I suppose that this is a case where we are "zigging while the others zag." The fact is that there is still plenty of starting QB material around here, but all the top RB's and WR's are long gone. So get your RB's and WR's while they last, and pick up a second-tier QB at a bargain price. At this point, you should be praying that Jay Cutler is available (he will be in most drafts). If not, Donovan McNabb is a good alternative. If neither of these guys are around, then you might want to skip a QB in this round and pick up David Garrard or Aaron Rodgers in round 8.

Now, you can start filling in backups with high-potential guys. How you back up each position depends on league rules of course, but I like to have at least 2 backups for RB and WR, with 1 backup for QB and TE. Don't waste roster space by trying to backup your kicker. If your roster sizes allow more backups, then go heavier on RB. It is very tough to find a starting RB after the draft, but someone start-worthy at QB or WR always seems to go undrafted each year.

I haven't mentioned TE's yet. There are a lot of TE's that are becoming start-worthy, and the gap between the top few TE's and the second level is not nearly as great as it used to be. Therefore, spending a 4th or 5th round pick to get Gates or Witten does not make as much sense as it used to. I would take a TE in round 8, where Tony Sheffler, Jeremy Shockey, and Owen Daniels should all be available. Any one of them will make a fine starting TE.

Kickers should be taken in the last round, and defenses should be taken in the next-to-last round. If your league has a "coach" option, then that should be bumped to the final round. The point differential between the best and the last taken in these positions just don't warrant wasting a higher-round pick.