Moratorium lifted, Favre Projections

OK, I said that I would lift the moratorium on Favre when he practiced and didn't quit, so I guess now its over, although he still doesn't sound to me like he's real happy to be a Jet. In fact, some of his comments are almost comical. "I didn't realize the Jets were 4-12 last year." "I hope that at the end of the year I'll think I did the right thing."

Anyway, trying to project what Favre will do with the Jets, lets first look at the Jets passing stats for the last three seasons.

Year	Comp	Att	Comp %	Yards	Y/A	TDs	TD%	Int	Int %
2005	268	470	57.0%	2642	5.6	11	2.3%	15	3.2%
2006	313	488	64.1%	3222	6.6	17	3.5%	16	3.3%
2007	310	512	60.5%	3014	5.9	15	2.9%	19	3.7%
Average	297	490	60.6%	2959	6.0	14	2.9%	16.7	3.4%

Now, for Favre's numbers over the same time span:

Year	Comp	Att	Comp %	Yards	Y/A	TDs	TD%	Int	Int %
2005	372	607	61.3%	3881	6.4	20	3.3%	29	4.8%
2006	343	613	56.0%	3885	6.3	18	2.9%	18	2.9%
2007	356	535	66.5%	4155	7.8	28	5.2%	15	2.8%
Average	357	585	61.0%	3974	6.8	22	3.8%	20.7	3.5%

The most significant difference here is the number of passes thrown. So how much is Mangini going to play with his new toy? I think that the Jets will pass more than they did with Pennington/Clemens, but not as much as Favre has in the past. Lets split the difference and give him 535 passes for next season. Most of the other averages are pretty close to one another, except yards per attempt. Some of this is because the quarterbacks were not as talented as Favre, but also because the Jets receiving corps is not as good as that of the Packers. So again, lets split the difference and give Favre 6.4 yards per attempt, which is pretty close to what he had in 2005 and 2006. So we have a baseline that looks like this:

Favre	326	535	61.0%	3424	6.4	18	3.4%	18.7	3.5%

Plugging these numbers into the Jets receiving corps, and we find that the yards per completion should be just a bit higher. Looking at the Jets schedule tells us that their schedule is slightly favorable to the passing game. Finally, adding a handful of passes for Kellen Clemens gives us this result:

Name	Pos	Comp	Att	Yards	TDs	Ints	Yard Var	TD Var
Brett Favre	QB	320	525	3589	18	18	9	17
Kellen Clemens	QB	5	10	64	0	0	19	32
Total		326	535	3653	18	19