The Perfect Draft

Some of you might start serious drafting this weekend, so I thought I would put together a draft plan for the "perfect draft." For this exercise, we assume that this is a 12-team league with standard (non-PPR) scoring. Teams will start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 K, and a defense. We will further assume that we have the 6th pick in the first round of a serpentine-style draft. Finally, we will assume that all of our league mates will draft based upon the ADP in ESPN.

The idea of this exercise is to give us an idea of how the draft will most likely play out and who we will be able to grab when - however; it is very important to remember that it only takes one "against the grain" pick by a league mate to mess up your plans for a round, or even the entire draft, so we will discuss some options in each round.


Round 1 (pick 6) - Marion Barber. Earlier than most would take him, but he is an every-down back that won't come out in goal line situations. If he is gone here, take the top running back on my list.
Round 2 (pick 19) - Andre Johnson. Any of the top 5 receivers on my list is a good pick here.
Round 3 (pick 30) - Tory Holt. There are no intriguing running backs left here, or I would take him. Holt will be Bulger's only worthwhile target on the Rams.
Round 4 (pick 43) - Earnest Graham. I don't think Cadillac is coming back, so you just picked up a great RB2 in the 4th round.
Round 5 (pick 54) - Brandon Marshall. Time to fill the flex spot. Matt Forte is the best RB left at this point, but I like Marshall better.
Round 6 (pick 67) - Jay Cutler. Time for a QB, and Cutler is a steal here. If he is missing, than David Garrard might be the best QB on my draft list. If so, wait to draft him (he will last a few more rounds), and fill in a TE or RB3. I am really leaning against taking a QB early this year, there are just too many good options down here.
Round 7 (pick 78) - DeAngelo Williams. You need a worthwhile RB3, and the pickings will get very slim after this one.
Round 8 (pick 91) - Jeremy Shockey. Time for a TE, and you could do a lot worse than one on a team with Drew Brees pulling the trigger.
Round 9 (pick 102) - Ted Ginn. He may fall a few more rounds, but we need to get who we can here.
Round 10 (pick 115) - Aaron Rodgers. Or the highest rated QB here. There should be some good ones still out there: Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna, Vince Young.
Round 11 (pick 126) - Chris Johnson. Getting a high-upside RB this late is great. If he is gone, look for Ricky Williams or Ray Rice.
Round 12 (pick 139) - Justin Gage. I like where the young guy is, and if VY develops, he stands to benefit the most. Other high-upside WR's available here are Drew Bennett, Vincent Jackson, and Sidney Rice.
Round 13 (pick 150) - Best player available. Someone has surely slipped through. Just look for a player with a high upside (i.e. aging veterans need not apply at this point). For agument's sake, we'll say it is Sidney Rice.
Round 15 (pick 163) - Steve Slayton. Same principle applies here.
Round 16 (pick 163) The highest rated defense available. I haven't even done fantasy defense ratings yet. Suffice it to say, I don't think its real important, but I guess will work on them this weekend.
Round 17 (pick 174) The highest rated kicker available. Read what I wrote about defenses.

So there you are. After the draft, your team looks like this:

QB - Jay Cutler
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Marion Barber
RB - Earnest Graham
RB - DeAngelo Williams
RB - Chris Johnson
RB - Steve Slayton
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Tory Holt
WR - Brandon Marshall
WR - Ted Ginn
WR - Justin Gage
WR - Sidney Rice
TE - Jeremy Shockey
K - Somebody
DEF - Who cares?

Do I need to write articles about how unimportant drafting Kickers and defenses is, or has that been covered. Basically, they are hard to predict (except for the first 1 or 2 defenses), and there is very little spread between the best and the 12th best.

Anyway, there is your championship team. You're welcome.