Quarterback Sleepers, Busts, and Changes

Comparing my quarterback rankings to the "conventional wisdom" (as measured by ESPN live draft rankings), we come up with the following:

Sleepers

All off-season I have been drooling over Jay Cutler. He has shown that he has a lot of talent, and in his third year, he should improve even more. I was a little worried about potential chemistry problems with Brandon Marshall during the summer, but they look like they are still on the same page on the football field. I increased his attempts from 467 to 480, and have predicted only a slight improvement in yards/attempt (from 7.5 to 7.6). I also predicted a slight increase in career TD percentage, from 4.8 to 5 percent. Cutler can be taken in the 6th round of most drafts, and would be a bargain as a QB1 at that spot.

There has been a lot of attention on the Packer's QB situation, and right now Aaron Rodgers is the 20th ranked QB according to ESPN's live drafts. This may be because his role has only recently become clear, but I have him higher than most at 10th. I have him with 550 attempts, which is less than they have had in each of the last two years under McCarthy. Last year in very limited action, Rodgers had 7.8 yards per attempt and a 3.6% TD rate. I have him pegged for 7.2 yards per attempt and a 3% TD rate, numbers that I think are reasonable given the talent of Green Bay's receiving corps. Rodgers can be taken as an early 9th round pick in most drafts, and will be a great QB2 for your team.

Busts

Ben Roethlisberger is going as the 5th QB in ESPN live drafts, but I have him at 9th. I have projected him for more attempts than last year (410 vs. 404), higher yards per attempt than last year's 7.9 (his career average of 8.1), and slightly less than last year's career high TD percentage of 7.9 (but, at 6%, I still have him higher than his career avergate of 5.8%). The defenses that he will be facing are slightly better than average against the pass, so I see no reason to increase the ratings I have given him. Let someone else draft him while you are waiting to take Cutler.

Marc Bulger was one of the top 5 QBs a few years back, but no more. The conventional wisdom has him as the 12 rated QB, but I have him all the way down at #23. He still will have a horrible offensive line (he's already dinged up in the pre-season), and with the loss of Issac Bruce, he also has the least talented receiving corps he has ever had. I have him pegged for 418 attempts, more than in 2 of the last 3 years. I also have him just below his career average of 7.5 yards per attempt and 4.3% touchdown rate, but the numbers of 7.3 and 4.1% are just off his career marks and better than what he has done in the last two years.

Changes

David Garrard quietly had a fine season last year, with an incredibly low interception rate. I had him as the 6th best QB, while most others have him at 15th. I had him pegged to improve in yards/attempt from 7.7 to 7.8, but with a career average of 7.0, maybe 7.5 is a more realistic projection. I had his touchdown percentage dropping from 5.5 to 5.4%, but with a career average of 4.0%, let's change our projection to 5%. Finally, we raised our interception rate projection from 1% to 2% (his career average is 1.9%), and Garrard falls to the 10th rated QB. Still, he's a starter quality QB that you can easily draft in the 8th round, so he may still belong on the "sleeper" list.