Running Back Booms, Busts, and Changes

Looking at my latest running back ratings, lets take a look at guys who I think are sleepers, busts, and maybe where I made a mistake and the "conventional wisdom" wins out.

Sleepers

Marion Barber and Marshawn Lynch are rated too high by everyone to consider them sleepers, but I have them even higher than most others. They both are looking at increased roles, don't have injury histories, and don't have anyone that is going to take away their goal-line carries. I think they are both worth mid first round picks, as opposed to late first round picks. They are even better in PPR formats.

I have Earnest Graham as my 12th running back, while the conventional wisdom has him at the 48th overall pick. Now, his value could come down if Cadillac Williams comes back, but that won't happen until at least mid-season, if at all. Even if Williams comes back, it will be a time-share situation at worst for Graham. If you pick up Graham in the 3rd round of your draft, you will wind up with a much better than average RB2. The bad news is that you COULD wind up losing him before your fantasy playoffs begin.

I have DeAngelo Williams as my 25th ranked back, while he tends to be going at #84 overall. Most are afriad of Jonathon Stewart becoming the starter, but his injuries and Williams' talent will keep Williams getting 12-13 carries per game. Plus, Carolina's coaches are considering using Stewart as a kick returner, something they would never do if they were planning on him being a featured back. So picking up DeAngelo in the 7th round of your draft would give you a very capable RB3.

Busts

Willie Parker's average draft position is 19, but I have him as the 36th rated running back. Rashard Mendenhall was drafted in the first round for a reason, as most see him as an every-down back, a role that Parker has not been able to fill. Parker will lose carries from last season, and will surely not get any goal line work. Let someone else take him as starter.

People seem to insist that Reggie Bush is going to break through. His current average draft position is 31st, but I have him as my 27 ranked back. Bush proved last year that he is not an every-down back, and even if Duece McAllister gets injured yet again, Pierre Thomas is more likely to get every-down carries. I don't think Bush is worth more than an RB3 at this point. In PPR leagues, he becomes an RB2.

Many are thinking (hoping?) that Darren McFadden will become the next Adrian Peterson, but I tend to think that he is the next Reggie Bush. His slender frame and his upright running style make him unlikely to find success on the ground in the NFL. Given the Raider's good run blocking, I may have him a little TOO low, but I gaurentee that someone in your league will take him way too early.

Changes

Ryan Grant is going 17th overall in the average draft, but I had him as my 25th ranked running back. I put together his ratings during his holdout, when it looked like Brandon Jackson might cut into his carries. Plus, I had raised his variance to account for the uncertainty in his playing status at the time. I had written a note to myself to lower the variance if the contract holdout ended, but I guess I never read it. Anyway, increasing his carries from 250 to 300 and cutting his variance in half makes him my 11th ranked running back, which is in line with the conventional wisdom.