The Schaub Gambit

Those of you that have been reading this blog since the beginning of the off-season (both of you) know that I was really high on the Texans' passing game early in the spring. I thought I would be spending most of this period of time pimping Matt Schaub, but it turns out that I have been all about Jay Cutler instead. After working on all the projections, formulas, etc., Schaub wound up 19th in my QB ratings - hardly a sleeper pick. So what happened? Is there something wrong with my ratings? Is taking Schaub a gamble that could pay off big time?

I've been planning on writing this article for a few days now, but Evan Silva's article this morning on Rotonews made it a lot easier for me. Evan laid out 5 reasons why Schaub is an intriguing pick:

1. Houston's receiving corps is very good
2. Houston's awful defense will force the offense to keep putting points on the board
3. Schaub is playing with urgency
4. The Texan's running backs are awful
5. Schaub loves to throw deep

His only downside is an injury concern, but he seems to be healthy this year, and his major injury last year was to his non-throwing shoulder. Also, he put up most of his good numbers last year without Andre Johnson, who we have as the #1 fantasy wide receiver.

So why #19? We have him projected to throw 409 of the Texans' 529 passes this year, because we just had a hard time believing he will get through the season uninjured. We had a 15% yardage variance and a 30% TD variance on him, also because of all the injuries. So, basically, we were penalizing Schaub twice for all his injuries last year.

If we move Schaub's variance to a more avergage 10% and 20%, he moves up to the 15th ranked QB. What is more interesting is if we add in Rosenfel's projections to Schaub's, to come up with a "Texan's QB" position. We have them combining for 3999 yards and 27 TDs, which would put them 6th, just behind... Jay Cutler. And Rosenfel's per-attempt numbers are worse than Schaub's, so if Matt plays the whole season, he could be the QB5 behind only the holy quadroika of Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees.

Schaub is available in the 11th round in most drafts (according to Rotoworld's ADP), and would make a great QB2.

Me? In my draft, I am going to try to grab Jay Cutler in the 7th round, and Schaub in the 11th. If I miss out on Cutler in the 7th, I'll get Schaub as my QB1 in the 9th round. If you do wind up putting all your marbles in the Schaub basket, make sure that you draft Rosenfels late or that your league rules will give you a way to be first in line to get Rosenfels should Schaub become injured.

Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler are major reasons why I don't think there is any need to draft a QB early this year - fill in all your RB, WR, and flex positions first, and maybe even grab your RB3 before getting a starting QB.