Wide Reciever Sleepers, Busts, and Changes

Looking through my rankings on wide receivers and the average draft positions reported by Rotoworld [Editor's note: an earlier revision of this article referenced the now-defunct Rotonews], I thought I should take a closer look at those that diverge by about 10 positions or so to see if my ratings are messed up or if I can justify the difference.

I will perform this exercise with tight ends tomorrow, then I'll post a consolidated sleeper list before the weekend. I'll try to keep the sleepers to a reasonable minimum - I saw one site this morning that actually had 12 QBs listed as sleepers. Think they'll hit on one? Thank they will blow their own horns when they do?

Anyway, the Wide Receivers:

Sleepers

I have Brandon Marshall as my #7 receiver, he is being drafted at #17. Marshall had 103 catches last year, and is entering his third year, where most receivers "break out." I was a little worried about his concentration and his conditioning what with the McDonald's bag incident and all, but he had a great camp and seems poised for another great season. We projected him to fall off to 88 receptions. Factoring in his two-game suspension, this came down to 77. We have him pegged for 13.5 yards per catch, just a slight improvement over last year's 13.4. He looks like a steal in the 4th round of most drafts.

Nobody likes receivers with rookie quarterbacks, and Roddy White is not an exception to the rule. We have him as the #17 receiver, the masses are drafting him at #27. Roddy broke out last year (his 3rd, by the way) with 83 catches. We projected him to fall slightly to 81 catches. We have also projected him to make 13.2 yards per catch, well below his career average of 15.2. What about his quarterback situation? Just look at the sad bunch of QBs that he had when he put up last year's big numbers. He is the unquestioned #1 receiver in Atlanta, and will quickly become Matt Ryan's security blanket.

For a guy with 103 catches last year, Derrick Mason is not getting any love. I have him as my #25 WR, the masses have him at #38. We projected him to fall all the way to 83 catches this year. He has more than that in 4 of the last 5 years, so this number hardly seems high. The 11.6 yards per catch we are projecting is higher than what he has had the last two years, but well below his career average of 12.7. He is a great backup WR you can get in the 10th round of most drafts.

Reggie Brown had a disappointing year last season. In his 3rd year, he had a career high in catches, but it was only 61. We projected him for 70, which actually seemed a little high, so we brought him back down to his 2007 total of 61. We project him for his career average yards per catch of 14.4. We have him as the #30 WR, a good bargain in the 12th round, and a post-hype bounceback candidate. I do reserve the right to knock him down further if his hamstring problems persist.

Another receiver I seem to have much higher than most is Ted Ginn. Ginn averaged 3.7 catches per game over the last 7 games in 2007, his rookie season. That comes out to 59 catches in a full season. Add in some improvement for Ginn, a better QB situation in Miami, and the fact that Ginn is now the unquestioned #1 receiver, and the 70 catches we have him projected for does not seem like a stretch. We have him as the #36 receiver, others have him at #49.

Busts

Despite all the offseason bru-ha-ha and recent injury news, Chad Johnson has not fallen very far on people's boards. He is my #16 WR, but is #9 for the masses. I have him projected for 94 catches and 15.1 yards per catch, which are actually on the generous side for Chad. Due to the injury, we raised his variance from 11% to 25% on yardage and from 48% to 60% on touchdowns. That essentially gives Johnson about a 2-game penalty due to his injury, which does not seem excessive. Let someone else have him this year.

Changes

Another wideout in the news a lot during the offseason was Marvin Harrison. We had Marvin as the #29 receiver, the masses were taking him at #19. He had 20 catches in an injury-plagued season last year, and is 36 years old heading into this year. While Harrsion was out, Wayne, Gonzalez, and Clark gained a lot more momentum in the Colt's offense. I don't think that there is any question that Wayne is now the #1 receiver on the team. We have him projected for 70 catches at his career average of 13.4 yards per catch. However, setting his variance to 20% for yardage and 60% for touchdowns, along with the lower than career average catch total, was double-dipping his injury and age concerns. He has looked healthy all camp, so we are changing his variances to 12% and 30%, which brings him up to the #18 receiver.