Examining Matt Cassel

The injury of Tom Brady definitely has a huge impact, as people in most leagues (especially Brady owners) are lining up to acquire Matt Cassel. If you are in one of those wild-wild-west leagues that allows owners to sign free agents at any time, then you probably have already missed out on him. However, if you are in a more civilized league that gives you a weekly transaction deadline, then we can take the time to figure out what Cassel's number might look like at the end of the year.

The problem with Cassel is that he did not start at QB in college - he was a backup to Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC. Before Sunday, he had thrown exactly 39 passes in the NFL, most of them in garbage time. So there is a huge lack of sample size that makes it almost impossible to asses Cassel's capabilities.

So now that I've told you its impossible to make an accurate prediction, let's try to make one anyway. Since he played behind them at USC, it is fair to say that Cassel does not have the talent of Palmer or Lienart (I know, I should make you pay for this kind of analysis). So if we use Cassel's 57 career attempts (including Sunday's), we can try to figure out what his totals will look like. He has completed 61% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt. Not quite Brady numbers, but reasonable given Cassel's supporting cast.

How many passes will Cassel throw? We had Brady projected for 550 passes, but that number will surely come down. The last time Belicheck coached a young, unproven QB who took over for an injured veteran (Brady in 2001), he threw 413 times in 14 games. A similar pace would put Cassel at about 450 passes this year (including what he threw on Sunday). This means about 6 fewer passes per game then expected under Brady, which sounds about right.

So far we have Cassel with 274-450-3195. Also looking at career averages, we come up with 23 TDS and 16 interceptions for this many passes. Those numbers seem high (except the interceptions), but again, remember the supporting cast. Looking at schedule, the Patriots actually face better than average pass defenses (because, generally, the run defenses that they face are horrible, so there is less reason to pass against their opponents). Adjusting for defensive ratings gives us final numbers for Cassel of 274 of 450 for 3119 yards, with 21 TDs and 16 INTs. These numbers leave the Patriots with 72 fewer completions and 1000 fewer passing yards than projected with Brady. We will figure out which receivers will lose these catches and yards as the week wears on.

Plug these values into our season projections, and Cassel becomes our 15th ranked QB, right between Matt Schaub and Jason Campbell. Definately worth a QB2 on most teams, but, hopefully, you have a better starter.