So this is a good time for me to break out OTTO - a little palindrome used to help us remember what is important when evaluating a player in the world of fantasy football.
O - Opportunity. This is the most important thing when evaluating a player for fantasy football purposes. If a player has all the talent in the world, he is not going to help your fantasy team if he does not get the opportunity to play. Most of the civilized world knew that Jerious Norwood was a better back than Warrick Dunn last year, but the coaches refused to give Norwood more than 6 touches per game, so his fantasy value was very limited. On the other hand, most people are not gushing over the talent of rookies Matt Forte and Kevin Smith. However, they both have starting jobs and (especially in the case of Forte) are good bets to hold on to them all year. They will get enough carries that they are assured of having some level of fantasy production, although they are probably not in the top 40 talented backs in the league. Don't fall into the trap of getting the best overall players for your team - get the players who will score the most fantasy points. Opportunity is the #1 factor in determining who can score points, and who can't.
T - Teammates / System. A player surrounded by great teammates will always put up better fantasy numbers. Just look at the jump in production of Randy Moss when he went from the putrid Raiders' offense to Tom Brady and the Patriots. Likewise, Edgerrin James fell off a fantasy cliff when he moved from the high-octane Colts offense to the sputtering Cardinals offense. Good teammates will prolong drives, give you more touches, and increase your chances of winding up in the end zone. Poor teammates will increase the number of times you go 3-and-out. Also, the system is very important. Some systems are grind-it-out run oriented styles that benefit running backs at the expense of QB's and receivers, while other offenses open up to 3 and 4 wide sets that favor receivers, and still others place more emphasis on tight ends catching the ball. It is important to look at use patterns of coaches and offensive coordinators to understand how a player will be used in a particular system.
T - Talent. What, talent is only the 3rd most important factor? Yep. The fact is, with the exception of a few elite players, most players in the NFL have very similar talent levels. So you see many players among the fantasy elite scorers last year (Jon Kitna, Sean McDonald, Earnest Graham), who are average talent level players. The advantages that these players have in oppertunity, teammates, and system give them an edge of similarly-talented players. However; when evaluating a player that is being given a new role, it is always important to consider the talent of the player to decide what he is going to DO with that role.
O - Opponents. The defense that a player is going against is the final consideration. If a player is putting up huge numbers, do we expect the trend to continue, or is it because he just played the Bengals and the Raiders? If he is struggling, is there a problem, or is he just facing the toughest part of his schedule? That is why we invented "True Player Value" and washed all of our 2008 projections through the players' opponents to come up with final values. We will continue to calculate and comment upon True Player Value throughout the 2008 season.
In hindsight, OTTO, being a palindrome, might not be the best way to organize our thoughts, but then we would need to find a new mascot:
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