Thursday, September 25, 2008

True Player Values - Quarterbacks, Week 3

This new toy is almost too much fun. Here are the to-date True Player Values for QBs:

Name Comp Att P Yards P TDs Int
Donavon McNabb 70 105 1017 4.5 1
Eli Manning 65 107 912 3 1
Kurt Warner 54 84 911 7.2 1
Drew Brees 84 113 888 3.9 3
Aaron Rodgers 64 99 866 2.8 0
Tony Romo 62 92 861 8.2 3
Jon Kitna 60 104 846 6.5 5
Phillip Rivers 57 85 744 8.8 2
Peyton Manning 71 120 701 3.8 4
David Garrard 56 85 681 1.6 4
JT O'Sullivan 50 75 668 1.6 1
Jay Cutler 73 108 663 6.5 2
Matt Hasselbeck 47 97 659 1.7 3
Trent Edwards 63 94 632 2.8 1
Kyle Orton 54 87 625 1.1 2
Carson Palmer 53 91 619 0.7 3
Jason Campbell 61 93 600 5.8 0
Derek Anderson 43 93 596 2.9 5
Chad Pennington 53 83 567 1.9 1
Brian Griese 56 98 528 3.7 3
Matt Schaub 42 70 517 1.5 5
Matt Ryan 34 64 502 1.4 2
Brett Favre 63 90 502 4 3
Marc Bulger 52 89 457 1.4 2
Matt Cassel 48 72 443 1.7 1
Ben Roethlisberger 38 58 430 3.1 1
Jake Delhomme 52 91 424 0.5 1
Kerry Collins 30 49 398 2.1 1

Eli Manning number 2? So far, the defenses he has faced are Washington (70.1%), St Louis (92.1%), and Cincinnati (89.4%). Its hard to believe that the Rams and Bengals actually have better than average pass defenses. In the Rams case, this is because people can run on them so easily, they don't need to pass. The Bengals defensive rating was wind-aided in their game against the Titans. I think this is a problem caused by sample size that will work itself out in the next few weeks. Anyway, Manning's next four games are against Seattle (124.1%), Cleveland (107.9%), Seattle (66.5%), and Pittsburgh (73.4%). So he might have a good game against the Seahawks, but other than that, I don't really see him putting up any better numbers than he has to this point.

Kurt Warner is the #3 QB by TPV, and #9 by actual yardage. His opponents to date have been San Francisco (66.5%), Miami (105.3%), and Washington (70.1%). His next four are the Jets (101.7%), Buffalo (100.1%), Dallas (78.2%), and Carolina (86%). So he could have a couple of good games, then a few tougher games.

Jay Cutler, one of our favorites, is the #2 passer by yards in the NFL but only #12 by TPV. So far, he has faced some pretty poor pass defenses: Oakland (124%), San Diego (167.8%), and New Orleans (123.1%). I expect that Oakland and San Diego are actually better than that, so Cutler's TPV should improve. His next four opponents are Kansas City (96.5), Tampa Bay (112.8%), Jacksonville (102.1%), and New England (114.8%). So, for the most part, he will continue to face below average defenses. His numbers may drop off a little, but there is no need to panic here.

Brett Favre owners, on the other hand, might have cause for concern. He is the #14 passer in terms of actual yardage, but #23 in terms of TPV. He has faced nothing but below average pass defenses in Miami (105.3%), New England (114.8%), and San Diego (167.8). Again, New England and San Diego's defenses are probably better than that (did I mention sample size), but they have been underperforming to date. He faces Arizona (89.4%) , Cincinnati (89.4%), Oakland (124%), and Kansas City (96.5%). Some of these defensive numbers may go up, meaning Favre's upcoming schedule probably isn't as tough as it looks.

So I don't think there are any great epiphanies here - Eli and Warner might be slightly better than their numbers indicate, and Cutler and Favre might be slightly worse. But none of these numbers jump out as something alarming or revealing.

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