True Player Values - Running Backs Revisited

Oops. I found a mistake in my TPV algorithm that did not account for the fact that the Ravens and Texans have played 1 fewer game than everyone else. The result was the the ratings for their defenses were artificially high, making the rating for all running backs that have played them artificially high. When I saw that the Ravens defensive ratings were very high, it did not surprise me, but when I saw the Texans defense rated very high, I realized that something was amiss. That has now been fixed.

So the previous running back rankings posted yesterday where flawed. Here are the (hopefully) correct ones:

Name	Rush	Ru Yards	Ru TDs
Marion Barber	62	415	6.3
Jamal Lewis	44	352	0
Steve Slaton	31	348	1.8
Chris Perry	59	343	4.1
Ryan Grant	40	307	0
Clinton Portis	65	298	3.9
Steven Jackson	50	296	0
Willie Parker	66	294	0.8
Adrian Peterson	65	278	1.1
Frank Gore	60	268	3.6
Matt Forte	73	268	1.3
Michael Turner	59	261	2.7
Chris Johnson	50	242	0
Julius Jones	61	240	1.7
Marshawn Lynch	60	237	4.5
Darren McFadden	44	225	0.5
Jonathon Stewart	31	211	4.3
Ladanian Tomlinson	57	210	1.2
DeAngelo Williams	39	201	0
Brian Westbrook	42	201	2.7
Brandon Jacobs	50	199	1
Edgerin James	62	187	0
Joseph Addai	43	187	2.6
Fred Taylor	49	186	0
Selvin Young	26	182	1
Felix Jones	18	170	2.2
Earnest Graham	37	169	0.3
Thomas Jones	49	160	0.9
Reggie Bush	42	158	1.5
Le'Ron McClain	36	152	2.3

I don't think anyone should be surprised to see Barber at the top of this list, but the next four guys all warrant a closer look.

Lewis, Slayton, and Perry have all faced a combination of Dallas (54.6%), Pittsburgh (37.9%), Baltimore (40.2%), Tennessee (49.3%), and the Giants (60.4%), who happen to be 5 of the top 7 run defenses in the league. (The number in parens next to each team are their True Player Value defensive rating - it is the percentage of rush yards that the defense gives up compared to a league-average defense). So their mediocre-to-good performances against only great defenses have really increased their adjusted stats.

Over the next four games, Lewis faces Cincinnati (114%), the Giants (60.4%), Washington (111.3%), and Jacksonville (102.2 %). Now, I expect the Redskins and Jaguars defenses to improve some, but Lewis only has 1 defense in the class of what he started out against over his next four games. I really expect him to right the ship.

Steve Slaton, on the other hand, faces Jacksonville (102.2 %), Indianapolis (153.6%), Miami (122.1 %), and Detriot (144.7%) over the next four games. He should own the city of Houston by the time that stretch of games is over. If you read this blog before your draft, you already own Slaton. Otherwise, if there is any way you can get Slaton, pounce on him.

Chris Perry draws Cleveland (84.8%), Dallas (54.6%), the Jets (91.8%), and Pittsburgh (37.9%) over the next four games. He might be better than his real numbers to date, but his schedule aint getting any easier. Pass on Perry.

Ryan Grant is rated so high based on his 92 yards against Minnesota, which come out to 196 adjusted yards. In contrast, his 20 yards against Detriot equate to 14 yards adjusted. That is quite a bit of inconsistency, not one of the things we look for here at FFV. Anyway, his next four games are against Tampa Bay (103.3%), Atlanta (185.2%), Seattle (79.4%), and Indianapolis (153.6%). A few chumps on the schedule and getting healthier should equate to better numbers for Grant.

So, in summation, expect Lewis, Slaton, and Grant to put up improved numbers over the next few weeks, but expect Chris Perry to keep performing at about the same level.