Let the Johnson Era Begin

By now we all know that Romo will miss at least the Cowboy's next three games, maybe four, so let's try to use our True Player Value numbers to predict what Brad Johnson will be able to do.

Obviously, the Cowboys will be running a bit more - but since Felix Jones is also injured, it might not be as much more as they would like. Marion Barber will get to carry 20-25 times a game, with Tashard Choice getting 2-5 carries per game in relief.

My main concern about Johnson is his lack of mobility and the Cowboys offensive line. The Cowboys have a reputation as having a great offensive line, but since the Browns game in week 1, they have been allowing a lot of pressure on Romo. It looks to me like Flozell Adams has lost a step, as he is often getting beat around the corner. With the less mobile Johnson in the pocket, this problem will really start to show itself.

Given that he will be hit often, we have to worry about the durability of the 73-year-old Johnson (yeah, its a lame joke, but I can't resist). An injury to Johnson seems likely, then the Brooks Bollinger era would begin. We might see a lot of 3-step drops and quick releases in order to protect the 17-year veteran (and no, THAT is not an exageration).

By TPV, Romo has been averaging 326 yards per game. And while OTTO tells us that Johnson should have similar numbers due to having the same teammates and same system, this is one case where the talent gap is huge, and the talent gap will dictate a change in offensive philosophy. I think giving Johnson a base number that is 75% that of Romo is generous, which puts us at a 245 yard, 2 TD TPV for Johnson.

If we look at the 4-to-5-week period that Romo is expected to miss, this is what we get for Johnson's numbers against each opponent:

Week	Opponent	Yards	TDs
7	Rams	263	4.4
8	Bucs	225	2.1
9	Giants	229	2.1
10	BYE	0	0.0
11	Redskins	179	1.2

So, Johnson might be able to put up some nice numbers against the Rams, but after that, he does not look likely to put up number that you couldn't grab from anyone else. Tomorrow, we will tkae a look at QBs that won't have a bye in any of these weeks, who could wind up being a better fill-in.