A few of the cuts over the weekend forced us to change our ratings. Updated ratings are on the right-hand side under "2008 Positional Rankings."
The Bengals cut Rudi Johnson, which helped do decloud their muddy running back situation somewhat. Chris Perry will now be the starter, and will be spelled by Kenny Watson. Perry looks like a good late-round pick up now.
Chad Jackson was finally let go by the Patriots, which gives the #3 receiver job to Jabar Gaffney. Gaffney is now worth a late-round pick as well.
The Texans have put Chris Brown on injured reserve, ending his season. This puts Chris Taylor in the running back mix with Ahman Green and Steve Slayton. Green is an injury waiting to happen, so if two people in your league draft Taylor and Slayton in a late round, one of them will be richly rewarded. I really don't know which one it will be, but if I had a choice, I would take Slayton.
Kurt Warner has won the starting job in Arizona. We don't think he will hold it all year, but this of course makes Matt Leinart undraftable.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Friday, August 29, 2008
Consolidated Sleeper List
I have done a few sleeper lists by position, but here is my consolidated list for those of you with weekend drafts. After each name is the round that you should be able to get the player in a 10-team league. After all, a sleeper is not a sleeper if you take him 3 rounds too early.
WR Brandon Marshall - DEN - 3rd round - Will now only miss one game, and is entering the magic 3rd year for wide receivers.
RB Earnest Graham - TB - 4th round - Cadilac is not coming back, and Graham will remain the featured back even in the presence of Warrick Dunn.
WR Roddy White - ATL - 6th round - Broke out with terrible QBs last year, and won't be hurt very much by the presence of Matt Ryan.
QB Jay Cutler - DEN - 7th Round - The crown jewel of my sleepers. Cutler has shown talent in his first two years, and is entering his 3rd year as starter. He has good receivers and a suspect running game.
TE Chris Cooley - WAS - 7th round - Should improve on last year's numbers as Campbell improves.
QB Matt Schaub - HOU - 9th Round - Also has good receivers and poor running game. A porous defense seals the deal.
WR Derrick Mason - BAL - 10th round - Caught 103 balls last year, and like Roddy White, he did it with bad QBs. We project a steep dropoff, but not as steep as most.
QB Aaron Rodgers - GB - 11th round - Lost in the hype of the Favre fiasco. Has good receivers and a good scheme.
WR Ted Ginn - MIA - 11th round - Started to heat up towards the back end of the season last year. Is the #1 WR in Miami, and gets an upgrade in QB with Pennington.
TE Tony Scheffler - DEN - 11th round - Another Bronco in the passing game, another sleeper pick.
RB Steve Slayton - HOU - 12th round - All the other running backs in Houston could be injured by halftime of the first game. Slayton has the most talent and the least mileage of the Texan's running back corps.
WR Brandon Marshall - DEN - 3rd round - Will now only miss one game, and is entering the magic 3rd year for wide receivers.
RB Earnest Graham - TB - 4th round - Cadilac is not coming back, and Graham will remain the featured back even in the presence of Warrick Dunn.
WR Roddy White - ATL - 6th round - Broke out with terrible QBs last year, and won't be hurt very much by the presence of Matt Ryan.
QB Jay Cutler - DEN - 7th Round - The crown jewel of my sleepers. Cutler has shown talent in his first two years, and is entering his 3rd year as starter. He has good receivers and a suspect running game.
TE Chris Cooley - WAS - 7th round - Should improve on last year's numbers as Campbell improves.
QB Matt Schaub - HOU - 9th Round - Also has good receivers and poor running game. A porous defense seals the deal.
WR Derrick Mason - BAL - 10th round - Caught 103 balls last year, and like Roddy White, he did it with bad QBs. We project a steep dropoff, but not as steep as most.
QB Aaron Rodgers - GB - 11th round - Lost in the hype of the Favre fiasco. Has good receivers and a good scheme.
WR Ted Ginn - MIA - 11th round - Started to heat up towards the back end of the season last year. Is the #1 WR in Miami, and gets an upgrade in QB with Pennington.
TE Tony Scheffler - DEN - 11th round - Another Bronco in the passing game, another sleeper pick.
RB Steve Slayton - HOU - 12th round - All the other running backs in Houston could be injured by halftime of the first game. Slayton has the most talent and the least mileage of the Texan's running back corps.
Projections Updated
For your drafting pleasure this weekend, we have updated all our rankings. They are available in the right-hand column under "2008 Positional Rankings," and the spreadsheet is available as a Google document.
I will come out with a consolidated sleeper list later today.
Happy drafting!
I will come out with a consolidated sleeper list later today.
Happy drafting!
Thursday, August 28, 2008
TE Sleepers and Busts
A look at my tight end rankings vs. where the masses are now drafting them:
Sleepers
My #3 TE is Chris Cooley, who is being taken #7 in most drafts. Why do I have him so high? Anyone that can catch a ball through drywall gets put up high on my list:
Seriously, though, there are several reasons to like Cooley. He had 66 catches last year, and we are projecting him to improve that slightly to 70 (which is still below his career high of 71). We are projecting him for his career average yards per catch of 11.3, which is actually lower than what he has done the last two years. Finally, we are projecting 7 TDs for a guy who has had 6, 7, or 8 EVERY year of his career. Our numbers just don't seem too unreasonable at all.
I am having a love affair with just about everyone in the Broncos passing game, so it should surprise no one that Tony Scheffler is on this list. I have him as my #4 TE, while he is being drafted at #11. Scheffler is entering his 3rd year (breakout year for receivers and tight ends), and had 49 catches last year. With his improvement and the improvement of Jay Cutler, we are projecting him to get up to 59 catches. The 13.0 yards per catch we are projecting is higher than his 12.5 career average, but less than the 15.9 he displayed in his rookie season. Picking up a TE this good in the 9th round just feels right.
Busts
Dallas Clark had a career year last season, and we are projecting a return to earth. He is our #9 TE, while most have him at #4. Clark was helped out a lot by Marvin Harrison's injury last season. He had 58 catches in 2007, after a previous career high of 37. We are projecting him to fall down to 45 catches this year, still his second best season ever. The 12.5 yards per catch we are projecting is his career average, which he has been below for the last two years. Finally, we have him down for 6 TDs, a big drop-off from last year's 11, but still his second-best season. Let someone else jump on Clark in the 6th round, while you wait for Cooley or Scheffler.
Sleepers
My #3 TE is Chris Cooley, who is being taken #7 in most drafts. Why do I have him so high? Anyone that can catch a ball through drywall gets put up high on my list:
Seriously, though, there are several reasons to like Cooley. He had 66 catches last year, and we are projecting him to improve that slightly to 70 (which is still below his career high of 71). We are projecting him for his career average yards per catch of 11.3, which is actually lower than what he has done the last two years. Finally, we are projecting 7 TDs for a guy who has had 6, 7, or 8 EVERY year of his career. Our numbers just don't seem too unreasonable at all.
I am having a love affair with just about everyone in the Broncos passing game, so it should surprise no one that Tony Scheffler is on this list. I have him as my #4 TE, while he is being drafted at #11. Scheffler is entering his 3rd year (breakout year for receivers and tight ends), and had 49 catches last year. With his improvement and the improvement of Jay Cutler, we are projecting him to get up to 59 catches. The 13.0 yards per catch we are projecting is higher than his 12.5 career average, but less than the 15.9 he displayed in his rookie season. Picking up a TE this good in the 9th round just feels right.
Busts
Dallas Clark had a career year last season, and we are projecting a return to earth. He is our #9 TE, while most have him at #4. Clark was helped out a lot by Marvin Harrison's injury last season. He had 58 catches in 2007, after a previous career high of 37. We are projecting him to fall down to 45 catches this year, still his second best season ever. The 12.5 yards per catch we are projecting is his career average, which he has been below for the last two years. Finally, we have him down for 6 TDs, a big drop-off from last year's 11, but still his second-best season. Let someone else jump on Clark in the 6th round, while you wait for Cooley or Scheffler.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Wide Reciever Sleepers, Busts, and Changes
Looking through my rankings on wide receivers and the average draft positions reported by Rotoworld [Editor's note: an earlier revision of this article referenced the now-defunct Rotonews], I thought I should take a closer look at those that diverge by about 10 positions or so to see if my ratings are messed up or if I can justify the difference.
I will perform this exercise with tight ends tomorrow, then I'll post a consolidated sleeper list before the weekend. I'll try to keep the sleepers to a reasonable minimum - I saw one site this morning that actually had 12 QBs listed as sleepers. Think they'll hit on one? Thank they will blow their own horns when they do?
Anyway, the Wide Receivers:
Sleepers
I have Brandon Marshall as my #7 receiver, he is being drafted at #17. Marshall had 103 catches last year, and is entering his third year, where most receivers "break out." I was a little worried about his concentration and his conditioning what with the McDonald's bag incident and all, but he had a great camp and seems poised for another great season. We projected him to fall off to 88 receptions. Factoring in his two-game suspension, this came down to 77. We have him pegged for 13.5 yards per catch, just a slight improvement over last year's 13.4. He looks like a steal in the 4th round of most drafts.
Nobody likes receivers with rookie quarterbacks, and Roddy White is not an exception to the rule. We have him as the #17 receiver, the masses are drafting him at #27. Roddy broke out last year (his 3rd, by the way) with 83 catches. We projected him to fall slightly to 81 catches. We have also projected him to make 13.2 yards per catch, well below his career average of 15.2. What about his quarterback situation? Just look at the sad bunch of QBs that he had when he put up last year's big numbers. He is the unquestioned #1 receiver in Atlanta, and will quickly become Matt Ryan's security blanket.
For a guy with 103 catches last year, Derrick Mason is not getting any love. I have him as my #25 WR, the masses have him at #38. We projected him to fall all the way to 83 catches this year. He has more than that in 4 of the last 5 years, so this number hardly seems high. The 11.6 yards per catch we are projecting is higher than what he has had the last two years, but well below his career average of 12.7. He is a great backup WR you can get in the 10th round of most drafts.
Reggie Brown had a disappointing year last season. In his 3rd year, he had a career high in catches, but it was only 61. We projected him for 70, which actually seemed a little high, so we brought him back down to his 2007 total of 61. We project him for his career average yards per catch of 14.4. We have him as the #30 WR, a good bargain in the 12th round, and a post-hype bounceback candidate. I do reserve the right to knock him down further if his hamstring problems persist.
Another receiver I seem to have much higher than most is Ted Ginn. Ginn averaged 3.7 catches per game over the last 7 games in 2007, his rookie season. That comes out to 59 catches in a full season. Add in some improvement for Ginn, a better QB situation in Miami, and the fact that Ginn is now the unquestioned #1 receiver, and the 70 catches we have him projected for does not seem like a stretch. We have him as the #36 receiver, others have him at #49.
Busts
Despite all the offseason bru-ha-ha and recent injury news, Chad Johnson has not fallen very far on people's boards. He is my #16 WR, but is #9 for the masses. I have him projected for 94 catches and 15.1 yards per catch, which are actually on the generous side for Chad. Due to the injury, we raised his variance from 11% to 25% on yardage and from 48% to 60% on touchdowns. That essentially gives Johnson about a 2-game penalty due to his injury, which does not seem excessive. Let someone else have him this year.
Changes
Another wideout in the news a lot during the offseason was Marvin Harrison. We had Marvin as the #29 receiver, the masses were taking him at #19. He had 20 catches in an injury-plagued season last year, and is 36 years old heading into this year. While Harrsion was out, Wayne, Gonzalez, and Clark gained a lot more momentum in the Colt's offense. I don't think that there is any question that Wayne is now the #1 receiver on the team. We have him projected for 70 catches at his career average of 13.4 yards per catch. However, setting his variance to 20% for yardage and 60% for touchdowns, along with the lower than career average catch total, was double-dipping his injury and age concerns. He has looked healthy all camp, so we are changing his variances to 12% and 30%, which brings him up to the #18 receiver.
I will perform this exercise with tight ends tomorrow, then I'll post a consolidated sleeper list before the weekend. I'll try to keep the sleepers to a reasonable minimum - I saw one site this morning that actually had 12 QBs listed as sleepers. Think they'll hit on one? Thank they will blow their own horns when they do?
Anyway, the Wide Receivers:
Sleepers
I have Brandon Marshall as my #7 receiver, he is being drafted at #17. Marshall had 103 catches last year, and is entering his third year, where most receivers "break out." I was a little worried about his concentration and his conditioning what with the McDonald's bag incident and all, but he had a great camp and seems poised for another great season. We projected him to fall off to 88 receptions. Factoring in his two-game suspension, this came down to 77. We have him pegged for 13.5 yards per catch, just a slight improvement over last year's 13.4. He looks like a steal in the 4th round of most drafts.
Nobody likes receivers with rookie quarterbacks, and Roddy White is not an exception to the rule. We have him as the #17 receiver, the masses are drafting him at #27. Roddy broke out last year (his 3rd, by the way) with 83 catches. We projected him to fall slightly to 81 catches. We have also projected him to make 13.2 yards per catch, well below his career average of 15.2. What about his quarterback situation? Just look at the sad bunch of QBs that he had when he put up last year's big numbers. He is the unquestioned #1 receiver in Atlanta, and will quickly become Matt Ryan's security blanket.
For a guy with 103 catches last year, Derrick Mason is not getting any love. I have him as my #25 WR, the masses have him at #38. We projected him to fall all the way to 83 catches this year. He has more than that in 4 of the last 5 years, so this number hardly seems high. The 11.6 yards per catch we are projecting is higher than what he has had the last two years, but well below his career average of 12.7. He is a great backup WR you can get in the 10th round of most drafts.
Reggie Brown had a disappointing year last season. In his 3rd year, he had a career high in catches, but it was only 61. We projected him for 70, which actually seemed a little high, so we brought him back down to his 2007 total of 61. We project him for his career average yards per catch of 14.4. We have him as the #30 WR, a good bargain in the 12th round, and a post-hype bounceback candidate. I do reserve the right to knock him down further if his hamstring problems persist.
Another receiver I seem to have much higher than most is Ted Ginn. Ginn averaged 3.7 catches per game over the last 7 games in 2007, his rookie season. That comes out to 59 catches in a full season. Add in some improvement for Ginn, a better QB situation in Miami, and the fact that Ginn is now the unquestioned #1 receiver, and the 70 catches we have him projected for does not seem like a stretch. We have him as the #36 receiver, others have him at #49.
Busts
Despite all the offseason bru-ha-ha and recent injury news, Chad Johnson has not fallen very far on people's boards. He is my #16 WR, but is #9 for the masses. I have him projected for 94 catches and 15.1 yards per catch, which are actually on the generous side for Chad. Due to the injury, we raised his variance from 11% to 25% on yardage and from 48% to 60% on touchdowns. That essentially gives Johnson about a 2-game penalty due to his injury, which does not seem excessive. Let someone else have him this year.
Changes
Another wideout in the news a lot during the offseason was Marvin Harrison. We had Marvin as the #29 receiver, the masses were taking him at #19. He had 20 catches in an injury-plagued season last year, and is 36 years old heading into this year. While Harrsion was out, Wayne, Gonzalez, and Clark gained a lot more momentum in the Colt's offense. I don't think that there is any question that Wayne is now the #1 receiver on the team. We have him projected for 70 catches at his career average of 13.4 yards per catch. However, setting his variance to 20% for yardage and 60% for touchdowns, along with the lower than career average catch total, was double-dipping his injury and age concerns. He has looked healthy all camp, so we are changing his variances to 12% and 30%, which brings him up to the #18 receiver.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Updates to player rankings
I have updated all the player rankings based on the happenings of the last week or so. The rankings under "2008 Positional Rankings" have been updated. I am too lazy, uh, I mean busy, to update the team-by-team projections.
I will create another post in the next few days when I update the google spreadsheet with these values. If any of you need it before then, let me know and I'll put it on my priority list.
Here are some of the things I changed:
Kevin Curtis is hurt and looks to miss about half the year. This hurts his ratings and helps DeSean Jackson.
Jason Hill looks to have won the slot position in San Fransisco from Arnaz Battle.
Antonio Gates seems like he is fully healed; my earlier projections had him missing a few games. This helps Gates and Phillip Rivers, and hurts Vince Jackson.
Matt Ryan is starting in Atlanta, which hurts every Falcon receiver.
Drew Carter is out for the year in Oakland. I have no idea who their #3 receiver is going to be now.
Earnest Graham is going to be sharing some time with Warrick Dunn. I had a reasonable split in carries (225-80), but I did not have Dunn down for any catches. So I added 10 catches for Dunn at Graham's expense.
Chad Johnson has a torn labrum, and there is a lot of debate over whether he can play through it this year. I had a high variance on Johnson already due to his summer shenanigans, so he still seems to be at an appropriate point in my ratings.
Rudi Johnson is falling faster than the Dow Industrial Average. Chris Perry and Kenny Watson will take up the slack. It looks like Perry will get the starts early, but expect Watson to be the 3rd down back and expect the brittle Perry to get hurt before too long.
Micheal Bush spent some time at FB with the Raiders this week before being moved back to tailback. This can't bode well for his projected role this season. I took 50 carries away from him and gave them to Darren McFadden. I still have McFadden lower than most sites though, I just don't think his build and his running style will be successful in the NFL.
Willis McGahee is still hurting, there is talk that the Ravens brass is upset at him, and Ray Rice is having a great pre-season. I bumped up Rice at the expense of McGahee. I love Rice as a late-draft pickup.
Finally, Payton Manning looks like he is going to be just fine. I had surreptitiously taken 1 game away from Manning's stats; now I added them back in.
I will create another post in the next few days when I update the google spreadsheet with these values. If any of you need it before then, let me know and I'll put it on my priority list.
Here are some of the things I changed:
Kevin Curtis is hurt and looks to miss about half the year. This hurts his ratings and helps DeSean Jackson.
Jason Hill looks to have won the slot position in San Fransisco from Arnaz Battle.
Antonio Gates seems like he is fully healed; my earlier projections had him missing a few games. This helps Gates and Phillip Rivers, and hurts Vince Jackson.
Matt Ryan is starting in Atlanta, which hurts every Falcon receiver.
Drew Carter is out for the year in Oakland. I have no idea who their #3 receiver is going to be now.
Earnest Graham is going to be sharing some time with Warrick Dunn. I had a reasonable split in carries (225-80), but I did not have Dunn down for any catches. So I added 10 catches for Dunn at Graham's expense.
Chad Johnson has a torn labrum, and there is a lot of debate over whether he can play through it this year. I had a high variance on Johnson already due to his summer shenanigans, so he still seems to be at an appropriate point in my ratings.
Rudi Johnson is falling faster than the Dow Industrial Average. Chris Perry and Kenny Watson will take up the slack. It looks like Perry will get the starts early, but expect Watson to be the 3rd down back and expect the brittle Perry to get hurt before too long.
Micheal Bush spent some time at FB with the Raiders this week before being moved back to tailback. This can't bode well for his projected role this season. I took 50 carries away from him and gave them to Darren McFadden. I still have McFadden lower than most sites though, I just don't think his build and his running style will be successful in the NFL.
Willis McGahee is still hurting, there is talk that the Ravens brass is upset at him, and Ray Rice is having a great pre-season. I bumped up Rice at the expense of McGahee. I love Rice as a late-draft pickup.
Finally, Payton Manning looks like he is going to be just fine. I had surreptitiously taken 1 game away from Manning's stats; now I added them back in.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Rotoworld's Mock Drafts are Awesome
I have absolutely no intention of becoming a Rotoworld pimp, but it seems I have been mentioning them a lot lately. You may have noticed that the last few days, I have referenced Rotoworld's average draft position (ADP), as opposed to ESPN's, which I had been using. The reason is because a few days ago, Rotoworld unveiled their mock drafts, and they are great.
Basically, you can pick your draft position and league size, then you go into a draft where everyone gets one minute per pick in a 15-round draft. Its a great way to see how your draft could turn out, and get those bonehead mistakes out of the way before your real draft. You can also look at any completed draft, to get a good idea of where your favorite sleeper is going on that particular day.
Basically, you can pick your draft position and league size, then you go into a draft where everyone gets one minute per pick in a 15-round draft. Its a great way to see how your draft could turn out, and get those bonehead mistakes out of the way before your real draft. You can also look at any completed draft, to get a good idea of where your favorite sleeper is going on that particular day.
The Schaub Gambit
Those of you that have been reading this blog since the beginning of the off-season (both of you) know that I was really high on the Texans' passing game early in the spring. I thought I would be spending most of this period of time pimping Matt Schaub, but it turns out that I have been all about Jay Cutler instead. After working on all the projections, formulas, etc., Schaub wound up 19th in my QB ratings - hardly a sleeper pick. So what happened? Is there something wrong with my ratings? Is taking Schaub a gamble that could pay off big time?
I've been planning on writing this article for a few days now, but Evan Silva's article this morning on Rotonews made it a lot easier for me. Evan laid out 5 reasons why Schaub is an intriguing pick:
1. Houston's receiving corps is very good
2. Houston's awful defense will force the offense to keep putting points on the board
3. Schaub is playing with urgency
4. The Texan's running backs are awful
5. Schaub loves to throw deep
His only downside is an injury concern, but he seems to be healthy this year, and his major injury last year was to his non-throwing shoulder. Also, he put up most of his good numbers last year without Andre Johnson, who we have as the #1 fantasy wide receiver.
So why #19? We have him projected to throw 409 of the Texans' 529 passes this year, because we just had a hard time believing he will get through the season uninjured. We had a 15% yardage variance and a 30% TD variance on him, also because of all the injuries. So, basically, we were penalizing Schaub twice for all his injuries last year.
If we move Schaub's variance to a more avergage 10% and 20%, he moves up to the 15th ranked QB. What is more interesting is if we add in Rosenfel's projections to Schaub's, to come up with a "Texan's QB" position. We have them combining for 3999 yards and 27 TDs, which would put them 6th, just behind... Jay Cutler. And Rosenfel's per-attempt numbers are worse than Schaub's, so if Matt plays the whole season, he could be the QB5 behind only the holy quadroika of Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees.
Schaub is available in the 11th round in most drafts (according to Rotoworld's ADP), and would make a great QB2.
Me? In my draft, I am going to try to grab Jay Cutler in the 7th round, and Schaub in the 11th. If I miss out on Cutler in the 7th, I'll get Schaub as my QB1 in the 9th round. If you do wind up putting all your marbles in the Schaub basket, make sure that you draft Rosenfels late or that your league rules will give you a way to be first in line to get Rosenfels should Schaub become injured.
Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler are major reasons why I don't think there is any need to draft a QB early this year - fill in all your RB, WR, and flex positions first, and maybe even grab your RB3 before getting a starting QB.
I've been planning on writing this article for a few days now, but Evan Silva's article this morning on Rotonews made it a lot easier for me. Evan laid out 5 reasons why Schaub is an intriguing pick:
1. Houston's receiving corps is very good
2. Houston's awful defense will force the offense to keep putting points on the board
3. Schaub is playing with urgency
4. The Texan's running backs are awful
5. Schaub loves to throw deep
His only downside is an injury concern, but he seems to be healthy this year, and his major injury last year was to his non-throwing shoulder. Also, he put up most of his good numbers last year without Andre Johnson, who we have as the #1 fantasy wide receiver.
So why #19? We have him projected to throw 409 of the Texans' 529 passes this year, because we just had a hard time believing he will get through the season uninjured. We had a 15% yardage variance and a 30% TD variance on him, also because of all the injuries. So, basically, we were penalizing Schaub twice for all his injuries last year.
If we move Schaub's variance to a more avergage 10% and 20%, he moves up to the 15th ranked QB. What is more interesting is if we add in Rosenfel's projections to Schaub's, to come up with a "Texan's QB" position. We have them combining for 3999 yards and 27 TDs, which would put them 6th, just behind... Jay Cutler. And Rosenfel's per-attempt numbers are worse than Schaub's, so if Matt plays the whole season, he could be the QB5 behind only the holy quadroika of Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees.
Schaub is available in the 11th round in most drafts (according to Rotoworld's ADP), and would make a great QB2.
Me? In my draft, I am going to try to grab Jay Cutler in the 7th round, and Schaub in the 11th. If I miss out on Cutler in the 7th, I'll get Schaub as my QB1 in the 9th round. If you do wind up putting all your marbles in the Schaub basket, make sure that you draft Rosenfels late or that your league rules will give you a way to be first in line to get Rosenfels should Schaub become injured.
Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler are major reasons why I don't think there is any need to draft a QB early this year - fill in all your RB, WR, and flex positions first, and maybe even grab your RB3 before getting a starting QB.
Poll Results
The Brett Favre poll has ended. A whopping 17 of you voted, and the final tally is:
He'll be a top 5 QB - 0
He'll be worth starting - 13
He'll be a QB2 - 2
He'll blow goats - 2
I was surprised more of you didn't put him at QB2, which is where our rankings (he is the #14 QB) would put him. He appears to be going as the #11 QB in most drafts right now (using rotoworld's ADP), so it seems that the masses are putting him on the border of being a QB1.
A new post is up to the right. No Wayne's World references this time.
He'll be a top 5 QB - 0
He'll be worth starting - 13
He'll be a QB2 - 2
He'll blow goats - 2
I was surprised more of you didn't put him at QB2, which is where our rankings (he is the #14 QB) would put him. He appears to be going as the #11 QB in most drafts right now (using rotoworld's ADP), so it seems that the masses are putting him on the border of being a QB1.
A new post is up to the right. No Wayne's World references this time.
2008 Kicker Ratings
Here are the kicker ratings, for what they are worth. Please take a kicker as your last pick (unless your league has the even more worthless "coach" position).
The difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker is 17 points, or the same as the difference between Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb. In other words, you need to make sure that you have decent backups everywhere before you grab that extra point per week that the top kicker will give you.
This was based on 1 point per XP, 3 points per FG, and -1 per missed FG.
The difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker is 17 points, or the same as the difference between Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb. In other words, you need to make sure that you have decent backups everywhere before you grab that extra point per week that the top kicker will give you.
This was based on 1 point per XP, 3 points per FG, and -1 per missed FG.
| Name | Pos | XP | FGM | FGA | Fantasy Points |
| Adam Venatierri | K | 56 | 25 | 30 | 126 |
| Nick Folk | K | 50 | 26 | 31 | 123 |
| Steven Gostkowski | K | 40 | 28 | 33 | 119 |
| Matt Prater | K | 35 | 29 | 35 | 116 |
| Rob Bironas | K | 30 | 30 | 35 | 115 |
| David Akers | K | 38 | 27 | 32 | 114 |
| Nick Kaeding | K | 41 | 25 | 28 | 113 |
| Sean Suisham | K | 36 | 27 | 32 | 112 |
| John Kasay | K | 33 | 28 | 33 | 112 |
| Shane Graham | K | 36 | 26 | 30 | 110 |
| Mason Crosby | K | 27 | 29 | 34 | 109 |
| Josh Scobee | K | 43 | 23 | 27 | 108 |
| Robbie Gould | K | 28 | 28 | 34 | 106 |
| Jason Elam | K | 22 | 29 | 32 | 106 |
| Kris Brown | K | 36 | 25 | 30 | 106 |
| Mike Nugent | K | 27 | 28 | 34 | 105 |
| Jeff Reed | K | 37 | 24 | 28 | 105 |
| Phil Dawson | K | 31 | 25 | 29 | 102 |
| Jason Hanson | K | 28 | 26 | 30 | 102 |
| Matt Bryant | K | 31 | 25 | 30 | 101 |
| Ryan Longwell | K | 39 | 22 | 26 | 101 |
| Josh Brown | K | 29 | 25 | 30 | 99 |
| Matt Stover | K | 27 | 25 | 30 | 97 |
| Niel Rackers | K | 30 | 22 | 25 | 93 |
| Rian Lindell | K | 21 | 24 | 27 | 90 |
| Sebastian Janikowski | K | 30 | 22 | 29 | 89 |
| Joe Nedney | K | 25 | 22 | 25 | 88 |
| Lawrence Tynes | K | 33 | 20 | 25 | 88 |
| Jay Feely | K | 22 | 22 | 27 | 83 |
| Dan Carpenter | K | 25 | 20 | 25 | 80 |
| Martin Gramatica | K | 22 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| Olindo Mare | K | 15 | 12 | 15 | 48 |
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Basic Draft Strategies - 2008
Every year in fantasy football, we face new challenges, mainly based upon the perceptions of our opponents. The drafting strategy that won you that championship last season may make you an also-ran this year.
I have always been a fan of Warren Buffett (and his son Jimmy), so years ago, when I started fantasy football, I tried the "zig when others zag" philosophy. Well, the problem with that was that while you were zigging with wide receivers and/or quarterbacks in the first few rounds, the rest of the league was zagging you out of all the decent running backs.
Since fantasy football began sometime in the 1980's, it has been obvious that having a strong running game is the key to winning championships. Running backs give you the most consistent production on a week-to-week basis. Thus, the mantra of drafting running backs in each of the first two rounds was created. If you did not follow the herd, you were stuck with the Jones brothers (Julius and Thomas) as your starting backfield last year, and you had plenty of time to concentrate on Christmas shopping for your family come December.
Ah, but things are starting to change this year. Teams are starting to pass more often, and there are more backfield tandem situations, where you don't have one back consistently getting 20+ carries per game. So the herd is starting to think about taking the top QBs and WRs in the first two rounds, instead of just going RB-RB. I've even seen some reputable sites (i.e. sites better than this one) espousing a WR-WR strategy. So how do we take advantage of this situation?
I still think that running backs will win championships. Even a receiver like Randy Moss can be shut down by a defense that is good enough and determined enough to do so, because Brady will recognize the defensive strategy and get the ball to Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Watson, etc. However, even when the defense gangs up on Ladanian Tomlinson, he will still get 15-20 carries and a few catches. He at least has the opportunity to break one that Moss may not get in such a situation.
So, the first round is still for running backs, in my opinion. I would take any of the top 8 running backs on my list (including Frank Gore) before thinking about taking a wide receiver. If you are at the back end of the first round and these 8 guys are gone and Randy Moss is still available, then you can take him. Just be sure to get a running back in round 2. Don't even think about a QB yet (more on that later).
In round two, it is OK to veer from the RB-RB draft strategy for the first time in years. If one of the top 8 RB's is still available, you should gleefully jump on him, but if not, the RB talent that will be taken in round 2 won't be much different from the talent that is available in round 3. Any of the top 6 wide receivers on my list (including Braylon Edwards) would be a good pick here. If all 14 of these guys are gone, then the next WR on my list is Brandon Marshall, but this is way too early to pick him up. Skip down in the list to get TJ Houshmanzadeh - you should be able to pick up Marshall in the 5th or 6th rounds of most drafts.
In Rounds 3 and 4, continue to fill in your starting RB's and WR's. After round 4, you should have 2 RB's and 2 WR's.
Round 5 depends on your league's rules. If you start 3 WR's, you definitely want to pick up your 3rd WR here (here is where Marshall would be a good choice). If you have a flex position, you also will want to draft a WR to fill it, as the WR's available here will score more points than the available RB's. If you don't have a 3rd WR or flex, then get your 3rd RB here. Although he won't be a week 1 starter on your team, I can guarantee you will need him, and you don't want to start the dregs that will be left over in rounds 9 and 10 starting at a RB slot when your normal starter goes down with an injury.
Round 6 is where you can finally start thinking about taking a quarterback. Many of your league mates have already taken one, so by waiting this late, I suppose that this is a case where we are "zigging while the others zag." The fact is that there is still plenty of starting QB material around here, but all the top RB's and WR's are long gone. So get your RB's and WR's while they last, and pick up a second-tier QB at a bargain price. At this point, you should be praying that Jay Cutler is available (he will be in most drafts). If not, Donovan McNabb is a good alternative. If neither of these guys are around, then you might want to skip a QB in this round and pick up David Garrard or Aaron Rodgers in round 8.
Now, you can start filling in backups with high-potential guys. How you back up each position depends on league rules of course, but I like to have at least 2 backups for RB and WR, with 1 backup for QB and TE. Don't waste roster space by trying to backup your kicker. If your roster sizes allow more backups, then go heavier on RB. It is very tough to find a starting RB after the draft, but someone start-worthy at QB or WR always seems to go undrafted each year.
I haven't mentioned TE's yet. There are a lot of TE's that are becoming start-worthy, and the gap between the top few TE's and the second level is not nearly as great as it used to be. Therefore, spending a 4th or 5th round pick to get Gates or Witten does not make as much sense as it used to. I would take a TE in round 8, where Tony Sheffler, Jeremy Shockey, and Owen Daniels should all be available. Any one of them will make a fine starting TE.
Kickers should be taken in the last round, and defenses should be taken in the next-to-last round. If your league has a "coach" option, then that should be bumped to the final round. The point differential between the best and the last taken in these positions just don't warrant wasting a higher-round pick.
I have always been a fan of Warren Buffett (and his son Jimmy), so years ago, when I started fantasy football, I tried the "zig when others zag" philosophy. Well, the problem with that was that while you were zigging with wide receivers and/or quarterbacks in the first few rounds, the rest of the league was zagging you out of all the decent running backs.
Since fantasy football began sometime in the 1980's, it has been obvious that having a strong running game is the key to winning championships. Running backs give you the most consistent production on a week-to-week basis. Thus, the mantra of drafting running backs in each of the first two rounds was created. If you did not follow the herd, you were stuck with the Jones brothers (Julius and Thomas) as your starting backfield last year, and you had plenty of time to concentrate on Christmas shopping for your family come December.
Ah, but things are starting to change this year. Teams are starting to pass more often, and there are more backfield tandem situations, where you don't have one back consistently getting 20+ carries per game. So the herd is starting to think about taking the top QBs and WRs in the first two rounds, instead of just going RB-RB. I've even seen some reputable sites (i.e. sites better than this one) espousing a WR-WR strategy. So how do we take advantage of this situation?
I still think that running backs will win championships. Even a receiver like Randy Moss can be shut down by a defense that is good enough and determined enough to do so, because Brady will recognize the defensive strategy and get the ball to Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Watson, etc. However, even when the defense gangs up on Ladanian Tomlinson, he will still get 15-20 carries and a few catches. He at least has the opportunity to break one that Moss may not get in such a situation.
So, the first round is still for running backs, in my opinion. I would take any of the top 8 running backs on my list (including Frank Gore) before thinking about taking a wide receiver. If you are at the back end of the first round and these 8 guys are gone and Randy Moss is still available, then you can take him. Just be sure to get a running back in round 2. Don't even think about a QB yet (more on that later).
In round two, it is OK to veer from the RB-RB draft strategy for the first time in years. If one of the top 8 RB's is still available, you should gleefully jump on him, but if not, the RB talent that will be taken in round 2 won't be much different from the talent that is available in round 3. Any of the top 6 wide receivers on my list (including Braylon Edwards) would be a good pick here. If all 14 of these guys are gone, then the next WR on my list is Brandon Marshall, but this is way too early to pick him up. Skip down in the list to get TJ Houshmanzadeh - you should be able to pick up Marshall in the 5th or 6th rounds of most drafts.
In Rounds 3 and 4, continue to fill in your starting RB's and WR's. After round 4, you should have 2 RB's and 2 WR's.
Round 5 depends on your league's rules. If you start 3 WR's, you definitely want to pick up your 3rd WR here (here is where Marshall would be a good choice). If you have a flex position, you also will want to draft a WR to fill it, as the WR's available here will score more points than the available RB's. If you don't have a 3rd WR or flex, then get your 3rd RB here. Although he won't be a week 1 starter on your team, I can guarantee you will need him, and you don't want to start the dregs that will be left over in rounds 9 and 10 starting at a RB slot when your normal starter goes down with an injury.
Round 6 is where you can finally start thinking about taking a quarterback. Many of your league mates have already taken one, so by waiting this late, I suppose that this is a case where we are "zigging while the others zag." The fact is that there is still plenty of starting QB material around here, but all the top RB's and WR's are long gone. So get your RB's and WR's while they last, and pick up a second-tier QB at a bargain price. At this point, you should be praying that Jay Cutler is available (he will be in most drafts). If not, Donovan McNabb is a good alternative. If neither of these guys are around, then you might want to skip a QB in this round and pick up David Garrard or Aaron Rodgers in round 8.
Now, you can start filling in backups with high-potential guys. How you back up each position depends on league rules of course, but I like to have at least 2 backups for RB and WR, with 1 backup for QB and TE. Don't waste roster space by trying to backup your kicker. If your roster sizes allow more backups, then go heavier on RB. It is very tough to find a starting RB after the draft, but someone start-worthy at QB or WR always seems to go undrafted each year.
I haven't mentioned TE's yet. There are a lot of TE's that are becoming start-worthy, and the gap between the top few TE's and the second level is not nearly as great as it used to be. Therefore, spending a 4th or 5th round pick to get Gates or Witten does not make as much sense as it used to. I would take a TE in round 8, where Tony Sheffler, Jeremy Shockey, and Owen Daniels should all be available. Any one of them will make a fine starting TE.
Kickers should be taken in the last round, and defenses should be taken in the next-to-last round. If your league has a "coach" option, then that should be bumped to the final round. The point differential between the best and the last taken in these positions just don't warrant wasting a higher-round pick.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Projections Available
I have posted my projection spreadsheet on Google docs. I can't figure out how to get it to post with the formulas instead of values, so if one of you is smarter than me, please don't hesitate to clue me in.
Anyway, a quick key.
The first several columns are the actual projection info:
Column A - player name.
Column B - position
Column C - team
Column D - Completions
Column E - Passing attempts
Column F - Passing yards
Column G - Passing TDs
Column H - Interceptions
Column I - Passing yardage variance %
Column J - Passing TD variance %
Column K - Receptions
Column L - Receiving Yards
Column M - Receiving TDs
Column N - Receiving Yardage Variance %
Column O - Receiving TD Variance %
Column P - Rushes
Column Q - Rushing Yards
Column R - Rushing TDs
Column S - Fumbles
Column T - Rushing Yard Variance %
Column U - Rushing TD Variance %
The next group are the yardage adjustments for variance. If you disagree with how I use variance, these are some columns you could change to create your own customized ratings.
Column W - Adjusted passing yards (passing yards minus 1 passing yard variance)
Column X - Adjusted passing TDs (passing TDs minus 1 passing TD variance)
Column Y - Adjusted receiving yards (receiving yards minus 1 receiving yard variance)
Column Z - Adjusted receiving TDs (receiving TDs minus 1 receiving TD variance)
Column AA - Adjusted rushing yards (rushing yards minus 1 rushing yard variance)
Column AB - Adjusted rushing TDs (rushing TDs minus 1 rushing TD variance)
The next group are the points per categories. This section should be customized to reflect your league's rules.
Column AD - Points per pass completion
Column AE - Points per passing yard
Column AF - Points per passing TD
Column AG - Points per interception
Column AH - Points per reception
Column AI - Points per receiving yard
Column AJ - Points per receiving TD
Column AK - Points per rush
Column AL - Points per rushing yard
Column AM - Points per rushing TD
Column AN - Points per fumble
Column AP - Fantasy points. This is a formula with the points per category in the previous section times the projected or adjusted projected value for that particular category.
Column AQ - ADP. This is the average draft position, according to ESPN live drafts.
Anyway, a quick key.
The first several columns are the actual projection info:
Column A - player name.
Column B - position
Column C - team
Column D - Completions
Column E - Passing attempts
Column F - Passing yards
Column G - Passing TDs
Column H - Interceptions
Column I - Passing yardage variance %
Column J - Passing TD variance %
Column K - Receptions
Column L - Receiving Yards
Column M - Receiving TDs
Column N - Receiving Yardage Variance %
Column O - Receiving TD Variance %
Column P - Rushes
Column Q - Rushing Yards
Column R - Rushing TDs
Column S - Fumbles
Column T - Rushing Yard Variance %
Column U - Rushing TD Variance %
The next group are the yardage adjustments for variance. If you disagree with how I use variance, these are some columns you could change to create your own customized ratings.
Column W - Adjusted passing yards (passing yards minus 1 passing yard variance)
Column X - Adjusted passing TDs (passing TDs minus 1 passing TD variance)
Column Y - Adjusted receiving yards (receiving yards minus 1 receiving yard variance)
Column Z - Adjusted receiving TDs (receiving TDs minus 1 receiving TD variance)
Column AA - Adjusted rushing yards (rushing yards minus 1 rushing yard variance)
Column AB - Adjusted rushing TDs (rushing TDs minus 1 rushing TD variance)
The next group are the points per categories. This section should be customized to reflect your league's rules.
Column AD - Points per pass completion
Column AE - Points per passing yard
Column AF - Points per passing TD
Column AG - Points per interception
Column AH - Points per reception
Column AI - Points per receiving yard
Column AJ - Points per receiving TD
Column AK - Points per rush
Column AL - Points per rushing yard
Column AM - Points per rushing TD
Column AN - Points per fumble
Column AP - Fantasy points. This is a formula with the points per category in the previous section times the projected or adjusted projected value for that particular category.
Column AQ - ADP. This is the average draft position, according to ESPN live drafts.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
The Perfect Draft
Some of you might start serious drafting this weekend, so I thought I would put together a draft plan for the "perfect draft." For this exercise, we assume that this is a 12-team league with standard (non-PPR) scoring. Teams will start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 K, and a defense. We will further assume that we have the 6th pick in the first round of a serpentine-style draft. Finally, we will assume that all of our league mates will draft based upon the ADP in ESPN.
The idea of this exercise is to give us an idea of how the draft will most likely play out and who we will be able to grab when - however; it is very important to remember that it only takes one "against the grain" pick by a league mate to mess up your plans for a round, or even the entire draft, so we will discuss some options in each round.
Round 1 (pick 6) - Marion Barber. Earlier than most would take him, but he is an every-down back that won't come out in goal line situations. If he is gone here, take the top running back on my list.
Round 2 (pick 19) - Andre Johnson. Any of the top 5 receivers on my list is a good pick here.
Round 3 (pick 30) - Tory Holt. There are no intriguing running backs left here, or I would take him. Holt will be Bulger's only worthwhile target on the Rams.
Round 4 (pick 43) - Earnest Graham. I don't think Cadillac is coming back, so you just picked up a great RB2 in the 4th round.
Round 5 (pick 54) - Brandon Marshall. Time to fill the flex spot. Matt Forte is the best RB left at this point, but I like Marshall better.
Round 6 (pick 67) - Jay Cutler. Time for a QB, and Cutler is a steal here. If he is missing, than David Garrard might be the best QB on my draft list. If so, wait to draft him (he will last a few more rounds), and fill in a TE or RB3. I am really leaning against taking a QB early this year, there are just too many good options down here.
Round 7 (pick 78) - DeAngelo Williams. You need a worthwhile RB3, and the pickings will get very slim after this one.
Round 8 (pick 91) - Jeremy Shockey. Time for a TE, and you could do a lot worse than one on a team with Drew Brees pulling the trigger.
Round 9 (pick 102) - Ted Ginn. He may fall a few more rounds, but we need to get who we can here.
Round 10 (pick 115) - Aaron Rodgers. Or the highest rated QB here. There should be some good ones still out there: Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna, Vince Young.
Round 11 (pick 126) - Chris Johnson. Getting a high-upside RB this late is great. If he is gone, look for Ricky Williams or Ray Rice.
Round 12 (pick 139) - Justin Gage. I like where the young guy is, and if VY develops, he stands to benefit the most. Other high-upside WR's available here are Drew Bennett, Vincent Jackson, and Sidney Rice.
Round 13 (pick 150) - Best player available. Someone has surely slipped through. Just look for a player with a high upside (i.e. aging veterans need not apply at this point). For agument's sake, we'll say it is Sidney Rice.
Round 15 (pick 163) - Steve Slayton. Same principle applies here.
Round 16 (pick 163) The highest rated defense available. I haven't even done fantasy defense ratings yet. Suffice it to say, I don't think its real important, but I guess will work on them this weekend.
Round 17 (pick 174) The highest rated kicker available. Read what I wrote about defenses.
So there you are. After the draft, your team looks like this:
QB - Jay Cutler
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Marion Barber
RB - Earnest Graham
RB - DeAngelo Williams
RB - Chris Johnson
RB - Steve Slayton
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Tory Holt
WR - Brandon Marshall
WR - Ted Ginn
WR - Justin Gage
WR - Sidney Rice
TE - Jeremy Shockey
K - Somebody
DEF - Who cares?
Do I need to write articles about how unimportant drafting Kickers and defenses is, or has that been covered. Basically, they are hard to predict (except for the first 1 or 2 defenses), and there is very little spread between the best and the 12th best.
Anyway, there is your championship team. You're welcome.
The idea of this exercise is to give us an idea of how the draft will most likely play out and who we will be able to grab when - however; it is very important to remember that it only takes one "against the grain" pick by a league mate to mess up your plans for a round, or even the entire draft, so we will discuss some options in each round.
Round 1 (pick 6) - Marion Barber. Earlier than most would take him, but he is an every-down back that won't come out in goal line situations. If he is gone here, take the top running back on my list.
Round 2 (pick 19) - Andre Johnson. Any of the top 5 receivers on my list is a good pick here.
Round 3 (pick 30) - Tory Holt. There are no intriguing running backs left here, or I would take him. Holt will be Bulger's only worthwhile target on the Rams.
Round 4 (pick 43) - Earnest Graham. I don't think Cadillac is coming back, so you just picked up a great RB2 in the 4th round.
Round 5 (pick 54) - Brandon Marshall. Time to fill the flex spot. Matt Forte is the best RB left at this point, but I like Marshall better.
Round 6 (pick 67) - Jay Cutler. Time for a QB, and Cutler is a steal here. If he is missing, than David Garrard might be the best QB on my draft list. If so, wait to draft him (he will last a few more rounds), and fill in a TE or RB3. I am really leaning against taking a QB early this year, there are just too many good options down here.
Round 7 (pick 78) - DeAngelo Williams. You need a worthwhile RB3, and the pickings will get very slim after this one.
Round 8 (pick 91) - Jeremy Shockey. Time for a TE, and you could do a lot worse than one on a team with Drew Brees pulling the trigger.
Round 9 (pick 102) - Ted Ginn. He may fall a few more rounds, but we need to get who we can here.
Round 10 (pick 115) - Aaron Rodgers. Or the highest rated QB here. There should be some good ones still out there: Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna, Vince Young.
Round 11 (pick 126) - Chris Johnson. Getting a high-upside RB this late is great. If he is gone, look for Ricky Williams or Ray Rice.
Round 12 (pick 139) - Justin Gage. I like where the young guy is, and if VY develops, he stands to benefit the most. Other high-upside WR's available here are Drew Bennett, Vincent Jackson, and Sidney Rice.
Round 13 (pick 150) - Best player available. Someone has surely slipped through. Just look for a player with a high upside (i.e. aging veterans need not apply at this point). For agument's sake, we'll say it is Sidney Rice.
Round 15 (pick 163) - Steve Slayton. Same principle applies here.
Round 16 (pick 163) The highest rated defense available. I haven't even done fantasy defense ratings yet. Suffice it to say, I don't think its real important, but I guess will work on them this weekend.
Round 17 (pick 174) The highest rated kicker available. Read what I wrote about defenses.
So there you are. After the draft, your team looks like this:
QB - Jay Cutler
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Marion Barber
RB - Earnest Graham
RB - DeAngelo Williams
RB - Chris Johnson
RB - Steve Slayton
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Tory Holt
WR - Brandon Marshall
WR - Ted Ginn
WR - Justin Gage
WR - Sidney Rice
TE - Jeremy Shockey
K - Somebody
DEF - Who cares?
Do I need to write articles about how unimportant drafting Kickers and defenses is, or has that been covered. Basically, they are hard to predict (except for the first 1 or 2 defenses), and there is very little spread between the best and the 12th best.
Anyway, there is your championship team. You're welcome.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Steven Jackson Back in St Louis
Steven Jackson has flown to St Louis, and it appears he will be practicing with the Rams again soon. This gives him just over 2 weeks to get ready, which should be plenty of time if he not completely out of shape (ala LenWhale White).
So those of us that had Jackson near the top of our draft lists can breathe a sigh of relief. Let's look at Steven's projections a little more closely, if only because projecting someone on such a terrible offense to go so high does not sound like a good idea.
We have Jackson slated for 325 carries, which would be the second highest in his career. The first two years he was splitting carries with Marshall Faulk, the third year he had 346 carries, and last year's carries project to 316 when you figure in the 4 games he missed. He has no serious competition for his job, so he should be expected to shoulder the load again this year. The Rams may have to pass a lot (because they will be behind a lot), but no more than they did last year. So 310 carries might be a more conservative number, but 325 is in the right ballpark. We have him slated to catch 47 passes, which is actually a bit under his career pace for 16 games.
We are expecting Jackson to equal his 4.2 yards per carry of last season, below his career average of 4.4. Yes, their offensive line is still atrocious, but no worse than it was last year. Steven is only 25, and has only had one year with a lot of carries (2006, the year he had 346), so I don't think he is going to wear down in terms of yards per rush or be a high injury risk. We are projecting him to equal his career average of 8.3 yards per reception.
So, overall, I think Jackson deserves the rankings we have given him, and you should feel safe about drafting him in the first round of your drafts. He is our 8th RB in normal leagues, and even better in PPR leagues.
So those of us that had Jackson near the top of our draft lists can breathe a sigh of relief. Let's look at Steven's projections a little more closely, if only because projecting someone on such a terrible offense to go so high does not sound like a good idea.
We have Jackson slated for 325 carries, which would be the second highest in his career. The first two years he was splitting carries with Marshall Faulk, the third year he had 346 carries, and last year's carries project to 316 when you figure in the 4 games he missed. He has no serious competition for his job, so he should be expected to shoulder the load again this year. The Rams may have to pass a lot (because they will be behind a lot), but no more than they did last year. So 310 carries might be a more conservative number, but 325 is in the right ballpark. We have him slated to catch 47 passes, which is actually a bit under his career pace for 16 games.
We are expecting Jackson to equal his 4.2 yards per carry of last season, below his career average of 4.4. Yes, their offensive line is still atrocious, but no worse than it was last year. Steven is only 25, and has only had one year with a lot of carries (2006, the year he had 346), so I don't think he is going to wear down in terms of yards per rush or be a high injury risk. We are projecting him to equal his career average of 8.3 yards per reception.
So, overall, I think Jackson deserves the rankings we have given him, and you should feel safe about drafting him in the first round of your drafts. He is our 8th RB in normal leagues, and even better in PPR leagues.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Catching up...
There have been many events over the last week or so that warranted me going through all my projections and tweaking them, so I have updated all my positional rankings tonight (the team pages have not been updated).
Here are the highlights:
It appears that JT O'Sullivan will actually be the opening day starter for the 49ers. Right now I have him projected to start about 10 games, and for Alex Smith to start the remaining 6.
Josh Morgan looks to be starting for the 49ers at wideout, so his numbers were increased.
Rudi Johnson is still nursing the hamstring injuries that plagued him last year. It looks like he is now in a time share with Chris Perry, so I increased Perry's carries and reduced Johnson's.
Chris Henry is back with the Bengals, so I added him back in with about 35 catches. Chad Johnson's injury is rumored to be worse than the Bengals are letting on, but I haven't changed his numbers yet (his variance was already artifically high).
Miles Austin will miss about 3 weeks of the regular season, so his numbers go down to the benefit of Sam Hurd.
Kevin Smith is now starting in place of Tatum Bell, so Smith goes up, Bell comes down. I also increased Bell's variance, as it is now possible that he could be cut.
Andre Hall looks to be getting the short-yardage work in Denver, so his touchdowns are up at the expense of Selvin Young.
I have rewarded Calvin Johnson for his excellent preseason by increases his catches at the expense of Roy Williams. Both receivers are now projected for 74 grabs.
Matt Lienart looks like he will be the starter in Arizona, so I moved most of the Cardinals' passes to him. This hurt the Arizona receivers slightly.
Kyle Orton won the job in Chicago, so he gets the lion's share of the passes there. This did not affect the Bear's receivers much (i.e. you still don't want them on your team).
Ricky Williams may take a lot of early time from Ronnie Brown, and I now have them projected for the same number of carries through the season. Due to YPC and variance, however; Brown is still the better pick.
The Texans running back is now a committee of Ahman Green, Chris Brown, and Steve Slayton, but no one knows the mix. I put them all with 110 carries. Again, you don't want any of them. Maybe Slayton once both Green and Brown are injured (which will be about the 3rd quarter of week 1).
Joe Horn has been released, so he is off the chart.
Matt Hasselbeck's back has been hassling him (sorry), so his variance will be raised until we find out more.
Here are the highlights:
It appears that JT O'Sullivan will actually be the opening day starter for the 49ers. Right now I have him projected to start about 10 games, and for Alex Smith to start the remaining 6.
Josh Morgan looks to be starting for the 49ers at wideout, so his numbers were increased.
Rudi Johnson is still nursing the hamstring injuries that plagued him last year. It looks like he is now in a time share with Chris Perry, so I increased Perry's carries and reduced Johnson's.
Chris Henry is back with the Bengals, so I added him back in with about 35 catches. Chad Johnson's injury is rumored to be worse than the Bengals are letting on, but I haven't changed his numbers yet (his variance was already artifically high).
Miles Austin will miss about 3 weeks of the regular season, so his numbers go down to the benefit of Sam Hurd.
Kevin Smith is now starting in place of Tatum Bell, so Smith goes up, Bell comes down. I also increased Bell's variance, as it is now possible that he could be cut.
Andre Hall looks to be getting the short-yardage work in Denver, so his touchdowns are up at the expense of Selvin Young.
I have rewarded Calvin Johnson for his excellent preseason by increases his catches at the expense of Roy Williams. Both receivers are now projected for 74 grabs.
Matt Lienart looks like he will be the starter in Arizona, so I moved most of the Cardinals' passes to him. This hurt the Arizona receivers slightly.
Kyle Orton won the job in Chicago, so he gets the lion's share of the passes there. This did not affect the Bear's receivers much (i.e. you still don't want them on your team).
Ricky Williams may take a lot of early time from Ronnie Brown, and I now have them projected for the same number of carries through the season. Due to YPC and variance, however; Brown is still the better pick.
The Texans running back is now a committee of Ahman Green, Chris Brown, and Steve Slayton, but no one knows the mix. I put them all with 110 carries. Again, you don't want any of them. Maybe Slayton once both Green and Brown are injured (which will be about the 3rd quarter of week 1).
Joe Horn has been released, so he is off the chart.
Matt Hasselbeck's back has been hassling him (sorry), so his variance will be raised until we find out more.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Quarterback Sleepers, Busts, and Changes
Comparing my quarterback rankings to the "conventional wisdom" (as measured by ESPN live draft rankings), we come up with the following:
Sleepers
All off-season I have been drooling over Jay Cutler. He has shown that he has a lot of talent, and in his third year, he should improve even more. I was a little worried about potential chemistry problems with Brandon Marshall during the summer, but they look like they are still on the same page on the football field. I increased his attempts from 467 to 480, and have predicted only a slight improvement in yards/attempt (from 7.5 to 7.6). I also predicted a slight increase in career TD percentage, from 4.8 to 5 percent. Cutler can be taken in the 6th round of most drafts, and would be a bargain as a QB1 at that spot.
There has been a lot of attention on the Packer's QB situation, and right now Aaron Rodgers is the 20th ranked QB according to ESPN's live drafts. This may be because his role has only recently become clear, but I have him higher than most at 10th. I have him with 550 attempts, which is less than they have had in each of the last two years under McCarthy. Last year in very limited action, Rodgers had 7.8 yards per attempt and a 3.6% TD rate. I have him pegged for 7.2 yards per attempt and a 3% TD rate, numbers that I think are reasonable given the talent of Green Bay's receiving corps. Rodgers can be taken as an early 9th round pick in most drafts, and will be a great QB2 for your team.
Busts
Ben Roethlisberger is going as the 5th QB in ESPN live drafts, but I have him at 9th. I have projected him for more attempts than last year (410 vs. 404), higher yards per attempt than last year's 7.9 (his career average of 8.1), and slightly less than last year's career high TD percentage of 7.9 (but, at 6%, I still have him higher than his career avergate of 5.8%). The defenses that he will be facing are slightly better than average against the pass, so I see no reason to increase the ratings I have given him. Let someone else draft him while you are waiting to take Cutler.
Marc Bulger was one of the top 5 QBs a few years back, but no more. The conventional wisdom has him as the 12 rated QB, but I have him all the way down at #23. He still will have a horrible offensive line (he's already dinged up in the pre-season), and with the loss of Issac Bruce, he also has the least talented receiving corps he has ever had. I have him pegged for 418 attempts, more than in 2 of the last 3 years. I also have him just below his career average of 7.5 yards per attempt and 4.3% touchdown rate, but the numbers of 7.3 and 4.1% are just off his career marks and better than what he has done in the last two years.
Changes
David Garrard quietly had a fine season last year, with an incredibly low interception rate. I had him as the 6th best QB, while most others have him at 15th. I had him pegged to improve in yards/attempt from 7.7 to 7.8, but with a career average of 7.0, maybe 7.5 is a more realistic projection. I had his touchdown percentage dropping from 5.5 to 5.4%, but with a career average of 4.0%, let's change our projection to 5%. Finally, we raised our interception rate projection from 1% to 2% (his career average is 1.9%), and Garrard falls to the 10th rated QB. Still, he's a starter quality QB that you can easily draft in the 8th round, so he may still belong on the "sleeper" list.
Sleepers
All off-season I have been drooling over Jay Cutler. He has shown that he has a lot of talent, and in his third year, he should improve even more. I was a little worried about potential chemistry problems with Brandon Marshall during the summer, but they look like they are still on the same page on the football field. I increased his attempts from 467 to 480, and have predicted only a slight improvement in yards/attempt (from 7.5 to 7.6). I also predicted a slight increase in career TD percentage, from 4.8 to 5 percent. Cutler can be taken in the 6th round of most drafts, and would be a bargain as a QB1 at that spot.
There has been a lot of attention on the Packer's QB situation, and right now Aaron Rodgers is the 20th ranked QB according to ESPN's live drafts. This may be because his role has only recently become clear, but I have him higher than most at 10th. I have him with 550 attempts, which is less than they have had in each of the last two years under McCarthy. Last year in very limited action, Rodgers had 7.8 yards per attempt and a 3.6% TD rate. I have him pegged for 7.2 yards per attempt and a 3% TD rate, numbers that I think are reasonable given the talent of Green Bay's receiving corps. Rodgers can be taken as an early 9th round pick in most drafts, and will be a great QB2 for your team.
Busts
Ben Roethlisberger is going as the 5th QB in ESPN live drafts, but I have him at 9th. I have projected him for more attempts than last year (410 vs. 404), higher yards per attempt than last year's 7.9 (his career average of 8.1), and slightly less than last year's career high TD percentage of 7.9 (but, at 6%, I still have him higher than his career avergate of 5.8%). The defenses that he will be facing are slightly better than average against the pass, so I see no reason to increase the ratings I have given him. Let someone else draft him while you are waiting to take Cutler.
Marc Bulger was one of the top 5 QBs a few years back, but no more. The conventional wisdom has him as the 12 rated QB, but I have him all the way down at #23. He still will have a horrible offensive line (he's already dinged up in the pre-season), and with the loss of Issac Bruce, he also has the least talented receiving corps he has ever had. I have him pegged for 418 attempts, more than in 2 of the last 3 years. I also have him just below his career average of 7.5 yards per attempt and 4.3% touchdown rate, but the numbers of 7.3 and 4.1% are just off his career marks and better than what he has done in the last two years.
Changes
David Garrard quietly had a fine season last year, with an incredibly low interception rate. I had him as the 6th best QB, while most others have him at 15th. I had him pegged to improve in yards/attempt from 7.7 to 7.8, but with a career average of 7.0, maybe 7.5 is a more realistic projection. I had his touchdown percentage dropping from 5.5 to 5.4%, but with a career average of 4.0%, let's change our projection to 5%. Finally, we raised our interception rate projection from 1% to 2% (his career average is 1.9%), and Garrard falls to the 10th rated QB. Still, he's a starter quality QB that you can easily draft in the 8th round, so he may still belong on the "sleeper" list.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Running Back Booms, Busts, and Changes
Looking at my latest running back ratings, lets take a look at guys who I think are sleepers, busts, and maybe where I made a mistake and the "conventional wisdom" wins out.
Sleepers
Marion Barber and Marshawn Lynch are rated too high by everyone to consider them sleepers, but I have them even higher than most others. They both are looking at increased roles, don't have injury histories, and don't have anyone that is going to take away their goal-line carries. I think they are both worth mid first round picks, as opposed to late first round picks. They are even better in PPR formats.
I have Earnest Graham as my 12th running back, while the conventional wisdom has him at the 48th overall pick. Now, his value could come down if Cadillac Williams comes back, but that won't happen until at least mid-season, if at all. Even if Williams comes back, it will be a time-share situation at worst for Graham. If you pick up Graham in the 3rd round of your draft, you will wind up with a much better than average RB2. The bad news is that you COULD wind up losing him before your fantasy playoffs begin.
I have DeAngelo Williams as my 25th ranked back, while he tends to be going at #84 overall. Most are afriad of Jonathon Stewart becoming the starter, but his injuries and Williams' talent will keep Williams getting 12-13 carries per game. Plus, Carolina's coaches are considering using Stewart as a kick returner, something they would never do if they were planning on him being a featured back. So picking up DeAngelo in the 7th round of your draft would give you a very capable RB3.
Busts
Willie Parker's average draft position is 19, but I have him as the 36th rated running back. Rashard Mendenhall was drafted in the first round for a reason, as most see him as an every-down back, a role that Parker has not been able to fill. Parker will lose carries from last season, and will surely not get any goal line work. Let someone else take him as starter.
People seem to insist that Reggie Bush is going to break through. His current average draft position is 31st, but I have him as my 27 ranked back. Bush proved last year that he is not an every-down back, and even if Duece McAllister gets injured yet again, Pierre Thomas is more likely to get every-down carries. I don't think Bush is worth more than an RB3 at this point. In PPR leagues, he becomes an RB2.
Many are thinking (hoping?) that Darren McFadden will become the next Adrian Peterson, but I tend to think that he is the next Reggie Bush. His slender frame and his upright running style make him unlikely to find success on the ground in the NFL. Given the Raider's good run blocking, I may have him a little TOO low, but I gaurentee that someone in your league will take him way too early.
Changes
Ryan Grant is going 17th overall in the average draft, but I had him as my 25th ranked running back. I put together his ratings during his holdout, when it looked like Brandon Jackson might cut into his carries. Plus, I had raised his variance to account for the uncertainty in his playing status at the time. I had written a note to myself to lower the variance if the contract holdout ended, but I guess I never read it. Anyway, increasing his carries from 250 to 300 and cutting his variance in half makes him my 11th ranked running back, which is in line with the conventional wisdom.
Sleepers
Marion Barber and Marshawn Lynch are rated too high by everyone to consider them sleepers, but I have them even higher than most others. They both are looking at increased roles, don't have injury histories, and don't have anyone that is going to take away their goal-line carries. I think they are both worth mid first round picks, as opposed to late first round picks. They are even better in PPR formats.
I have Earnest Graham as my 12th running back, while the conventional wisdom has him at the 48th overall pick. Now, his value could come down if Cadillac Williams comes back, but that won't happen until at least mid-season, if at all. Even if Williams comes back, it will be a time-share situation at worst for Graham. If you pick up Graham in the 3rd round of your draft, you will wind up with a much better than average RB2. The bad news is that you COULD wind up losing him before your fantasy playoffs begin.
I have DeAngelo Williams as my 25th ranked back, while he tends to be going at #84 overall. Most are afriad of Jonathon Stewart becoming the starter, but his injuries and Williams' talent will keep Williams getting 12-13 carries per game. Plus, Carolina's coaches are considering using Stewart as a kick returner, something they would never do if they were planning on him being a featured back. So picking up DeAngelo in the 7th round of your draft would give you a very capable RB3.
Busts
Willie Parker's average draft position is 19, but I have him as the 36th rated running back. Rashard Mendenhall was drafted in the first round for a reason, as most see him as an every-down back, a role that Parker has not been able to fill. Parker will lose carries from last season, and will surely not get any goal line work. Let someone else take him as starter.
People seem to insist that Reggie Bush is going to break through. His current average draft position is 31st, but I have him as my 27 ranked back. Bush proved last year that he is not an every-down back, and even if Duece McAllister gets injured yet again, Pierre Thomas is more likely to get every-down carries. I don't think Bush is worth more than an RB3 at this point. In PPR leagues, he becomes an RB2.
Many are thinking (hoping?) that Darren McFadden will become the next Adrian Peterson, but I tend to think that he is the next Reggie Bush. His slender frame and his upright running style make him unlikely to find success on the ground in the NFL. Given the Raider's good run blocking, I may have him a little TOO low, but I gaurentee that someone in your league will take him way too early.
Changes
Ryan Grant is going 17th overall in the average draft, but I had him as my 25th ranked running back. I put together his ratings during his holdout, when it looked like Brandon Jackson might cut into his carries. Plus, I had raised his variance to account for the uncertainty in his playing status at the time. I had written a note to myself to lower the variance if the contract holdout ended, but I guess I never read it. Anyway, increasing his carries from 250 to 300 and cutting his variance in half makes him my 11th ranked running back, which is in line with the conventional wisdom.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Player Rankings Updated
I have updated the player rankings, and put position-by-position links in the column to the right. As mentioned in the last few posts, I am now using a traditional (non-PPR) scoring system for the rankings. I have also updated Adrian Peterson's yardage. Over the next few days, I will continue to look at players that I have ranked as sleepers or busts, compared to what the "conventional wisdom" is telling us. Like with AD, I may convince myself to change the ratings, but I think in most cases I will be able to justify the difference.
A Closer Look At Variance
Yesterday we took a look at our astonishingly low ranking for Adrian Peterson, and we found that not penalizing for variance moved Peterson from 4th in our running back ratings to second.
So what's the deal?
Most running backs have a variance in the 10-13% range, while Peterson's is a sky-high 21%. Is this deserved? Peterson has been injured every year since his freshman year in college. He has an upright running style that is conducive to injuries. Sorry, but he will get injured this year. Drafting him is almost guaranteeing that you will have at least one game with 2 carries for 8 yards before Adrian goes down with another injury. Its gonna happen, trust me. So penalizing his increased injury risk with a higher variance makes absolute sense.
But is the base rushing number that we gave Peterson a good number? Last season, Adrian rushed for 5.6 yards per carry. Our original projection had him at 4.6. Now, 4.6 yards per carry is very, very, good, but is it fair to penalize Adrian a full yard per carry just because his average last season was off the charts. Let's look at some other great rookie rushers, and see what they did in their second season.
Eric Dickerson averaged 4.6 yards per carry as a rookie, then improved to 5.6 yards per carry in his record-setting sophomore season. George Rogers averaged 4.4 yards per carry as a rookie and in his second season. Ottis Anderson went from 4.8 yards per carry to 4.5 yards per carry. Looking at a recent example of someone with similar rookie yards per rush, Maurice Jones Drew had 5.7 yards per rush in his rookie season, then fell to 4.6 in his next season. So even though MJD fell by about a yard per carry, the other guys did not, and Dickerson actually improved by a complete yard per carry.
So we will re-calculate Peterson's numbers with 5.1 yards per carry as the base, which brings him back up to the second running back, even with the 21% yardage variance penalty.
So what's the deal?
Most running backs have a variance in the 10-13% range, while Peterson's is a sky-high 21%. Is this deserved? Peterson has been injured every year since his freshman year in college. He has an upright running style that is conducive to injuries. Sorry, but he will get injured this year. Drafting him is almost guaranteeing that you will have at least one game with 2 carries for 8 yards before Adrian goes down with another injury. Its gonna happen, trust me. So penalizing his increased injury risk with a higher variance makes absolute sense.
But is the base rushing number that we gave Peterson a good number? Last season, Adrian rushed for 5.6 yards per carry. Our original projection had him at 4.6. Now, 4.6 yards per carry is very, very, good, but is it fair to penalize Adrian a full yard per carry just because his average last season was off the charts. Let's look at some other great rookie rushers, and see what they did in their second season.
Eric Dickerson averaged 4.6 yards per carry as a rookie, then improved to 5.6 yards per carry in his record-setting sophomore season. George Rogers averaged 4.4 yards per carry as a rookie and in his second season. Ottis Anderson went from 4.8 yards per carry to 4.5 yards per carry. Looking at a recent example of someone with similar rookie yards per rush, Maurice Jones Drew had 5.7 yards per rush in his rookie season, then fell to 4.6 in his next season. So even though MJD fell by about a yard per carry, the other guys did not, and Dickerson actually improved by a complete yard per carry.
So we will re-calculate Peterson's numbers with 5.1 yards per carry as the base, which brings him back up to the second running back, even with the 21% yardage variance penalty.
Friday, August 15, 2008
I have Adrian Peterson Ranked Where?
After working many long, long, hours to get all my rankings done and posted, I'll admit that I did not look at them very closely before going to bed last night. Imagine my alarm when I looked them over this morning and saw Adrian Peterson ranked 9th among running backs!
I immediately figured there where a few possible reasons for this happening:
1. The weird scoring system that I used for making the fantasy values
2. The variance penalty working against Adrian
3. I completely screwed up
Hoping that #3 is not possible, let's look at the first two possiblities:
The rankings I came up with were based on a scoring system with 1 point for every 5 rushes, 1 point per reception, 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 3 points for rushing/receiving touchdown, and -1 point for every fumble. My reason for using this oddball system is simple: it is the system that is used by the big-money league that I am in.
However, change to a more standard scoring system of 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 points for rushing/receiving touchdowns, and -2 point per fumble, and Peterson shoots up to #4 in the running back rankings (between Marion Barber and Brian Westbrook).
This shows us how important it is to take your league's scoring system into account. Peterson's lack of receptions and lower carry numbers than other top backs sap a lot of his power in my league's scoring system. You must take scoring system into account when looking creating your draft list. Just taking a list off of the web or out of a magazine is not enough - the ratings must be molded to your league's scoring system.
If we take the variance penalty out of the rankings, then Peterson becomes the #2 back, behind Ladanian Tomlinson, where many believe he belongs. So are we penalizing players too much with this variance idea, or do we have Peterson's variance too high, or are we putting him right where he belongs? That is a topic for a later post.
Interestingly, if we go to a traditional point per reception scoring system, even with no variance penalty, Peterson falls to the #4 back, behind Marion Barber and Brian Westbrook. Again, consider your scoring system before jumping on the guy that everyone thinks is the greatest thing in the world - he may not be so great in your league.
For now, I will change all my ratings to use standard non-PPR formats. If there is another format you prefer to see, let me know.
I immediately figured there where a few possible reasons for this happening:
1. The weird scoring system that I used for making the fantasy values
2. The variance penalty working against Adrian
3. I completely screwed up
Hoping that #3 is not possible, let's look at the first two possiblities:
The rankings I came up with were based on a scoring system with 1 point for every 5 rushes, 1 point per reception, 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 3 points for rushing/receiving touchdown, and -1 point for every fumble. My reason for using this oddball system is simple: it is the system that is used by the big-money league that I am in.
However, change to a more standard scoring system of 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 points for rushing/receiving touchdowns, and -2 point per fumble, and Peterson shoots up to #4 in the running back rankings (between Marion Barber and Brian Westbrook).
This shows us how important it is to take your league's scoring system into account. Peterson's lack of receptions and lower carry numbers than other top backs sap a lot of his power in my league's scoring system. You must take scoring system into account when looking creating your draft list. Just taking a list off of the web or out of a magazine is not enough - the ratings must be molded to your league's scoring system.
If we take the variance penalty out of the rankings, then Peterson becomes the #2 back, behind Ladanian Tomlinson, where many believe he belongs. So are we penalizing players too much with this variance idea, or do we have Peterson's variance too high, or are we putting him right where he belongs? That is a topic for a later post.
Interestingly, if we go to a traditional point per reception scoring system, even with no variance penalty, Peterson falls to the #4 back, behind Marion Barber and Brian Westbrook. Again, consider your scoring system before jumping on the guy that everyone thinks is the greatest thing in the world - he may not be so great in your league.
For now, I will change all my ratings to use standard non-PPR formats. If there is another format you prefer to see, let me know.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
2008 Wide Receiving Rankings
These are based on a scoring system with 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 points for rushing/receiving touchdowns, and -2 point for every fumble.
It penalizes players for with higher week-to-week variance by subtracting 1 standard deviation from their total stats.
It penalizes players for with higher week-to-week variance by subtracting 1 standard deviation from their total stats.
| Name | Team | Rec | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Points |
| Randy Moss | NE | 91 | 1377 | 14 | 186 |
| Andre Johnson | HOU | 99 | 1397 | 13 | 182 |
| Reggie Wayne | IND | 95 | 1390 | 11 | 172 |
| Terrell Owens | DAL | 84 | 1340 | 13 | 171 |
| Marques Colston | NO | 97 | 1366 | 12 | 168 |
| Braylon Edwards | CLE | 76 | 1078 | 11 | 148 |
| Brandon Marshall | DEN | 83 | 1156 | 8 | 141 |
| TJ Housmanzadeh | CIN | 94 | 1028 | 8 | 133 |
| Torry Holt | STL | 88 | 1162 | 6 | 132 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARZ | 83 | 1173 | 7 | 132 |
| Steve Smith | CAR | 79 | 1104 | 8 | 129 |
| Plaxico Burress | NYG | 73 | 1105 | 9 | 128 |
| Santonio Holmes | PIT | 65 | 1134 | 7 | 126 |
| Greg Jennings | GB | 60 | 956 | 8 | 122 |
| Calvin Johnson | DET | 74 | 1147 | 6 | 121 |
| Chad Johnson | CIN | 94 | 1323 | 7 | 119 |
| Marvin Harrison | IND | 70 | 947 | 8 | 119 |
| Roddy White | ATL | 81 | 1098 | 6 | 119 |
| Anquan Boldin | ARZ | 83 | 1124 | 7 | 114 |
| Roy Williams | DET | 74 | 1103 | 8 | 111 |
| Wes Welker | NE | 94 | 1029 | 6 | 111 |
| Laveranues Coles | NYJ | 78 | 1017 | 7 | 111 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | NYJ | 91 | 1165 | 5 | 110 |
| Donald Driver | GB | 80 | 1122 | 5 | 109 |
| Derrick Mason | BAL | 83 | 922 | 6 | 106 |
| Dwayne Bowe | KC | 82 | 980 | 5 | 102 |
| Hines Ward | PIT | 70 | 837 | 7 | 100 |
| Nate Burleson | SEA | 53 | 740 | 9 | 98 |
| Reggie Brown | PHI | 61 | 871 | 6 | 96 |
| Bernard Berrian | MIN | 56 | 837 | 5 | 92 |
| Jerry Porter | JAX | 51 | 707 | 6 | 87 |
| Lee Evans | BUF | 62 | 961 | 6 | 87 |
| Santana Moss | WAS | 55 | 785 | 7 | 86 |
| Chris Chambers | SD | 54 | 761 | 6 | 85 |
| Ted Ginn | MIA | 70 | 860 | 5 | 84 |
| Bobby Engram | SEA | 59 | 725 | 4 | 82 |
| Patrick Crayton | DAL | 51 | 786 | 5 | 79 |
| Issac Bruce | SF | 55 | 774 | 4 | 78 |
| Justin Gage | TEN | 65 | 866 | 3 | 78 |
| Amani Toomer | NYG | 53 | 736 | 4 | 75 |
| Joey Galloway | TB | 42 | 682 | 4 | 73 |
| Reggie Williams | JAX | 41 | 528 | 6 | 72 |
| Anthony Gonzalez | IND | 48 | 690 | 4 | 71 |
| Drew Bennett | STL | 47 | 687 | 5 | 70 |
| Sidney Rice | MIN | 52 | 637 | 5 | 68 |
| Jabar Gaffney | NE | 55 | 657 | 6 | 66 |
| Justin McCareins | TEN | 50 | 743 | 3 | 65 |
| Vincent Jackson | SD | 42 | 667 | 3 | 64 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | CAR | 53 | 722 | 4 | 64 |
| Donte Stallworth | CLE | 45 | 637 | 3 | 64 |
| Kevin Walter | HOU | 49 | 610 | 4 | 63 |
| Javon Walker | OAK | 50 | 697 | 6 | 62 |
| James Jones | GB | 48 | 697 | 1 | 61 |
| Byrant Johnson | SF | 50 | 638 | 4 | 60 |
| Ronald Curry | OAK | 52 | 598 | 3 | 60 |
| Derek Hagan | MIA | 50 | 615 | 4 | 58 |
| Chris Henry | CIN | 36 | 521 | 6 | 55 |
| Michael Clayton | TB | 33 | 451 | 3 | 55 |
| Kevin Curtis | PHI | 39 | 519 | 3 | 53 |
| Shaun McDonald | DET | 43 | 517 | 2 | 53 |
| Mark Clayton | BAL | 48 | 556 | 3 | 52 |
| Marty Booker | CHI | 39 | 493 | 4 | 50 |
| Josh Reed | BUF | 45 | 501 | 1 | 50 |
| David Patten | NO | 34 | 522 | 2 | 49 |
| Brandon Stokley | DEN | 31 | 414 | 3 | 47 |
| DeSean Jackson | PHI | 40 | 480 | 3 | 45 |
| Brandon Lloyd | CHI | 38 | 562 | 2 | 45 |
| Deon Branch | SEA | 31 | 414 | 3 | 45 |
| Dennis Northcutt | JAX | 34 | 427 | 2 | 44 |
| DJ Hackett | CAR | 34 | 466 | 3 | 42 |
| Ike Hilliard | TB | 40 | 493 | 2 | 42 |
| Steven Smith | NYG | 52 | 501 | 3 | 41 |
| Darrell Jackson | DEN | 35 | 390 | 3 | 40 |
| Robert Meachem | NO | 33 | 533 | 2 | 40 |
| Antwaan Randle El | WAS | 40 | 479 | 3 | 39 |
| Courtney Taylor | SEA | 33 | 336 | 2 | 37 |
| Bobby Wade | MIN | 36 | 410 | 1 | 37 |
| Eddie Royal | DEN | 42 | 450 | 3 | 35 |
| Devin Hester | CHI | 29 | 443 | 2 | 35 |
| James Hardy | BUF | 35 | 420 | 2 | 34 |
| Andre Davis | HOU | 20 | 357 | 2 | 33 |
| Arnaz Battle | SF | 24 | 294 | 2 | 32 |
| Michael Jenkins | ATL | 24 | 349 | 2 | 32 |
| Troy Williamson | JAX | 26 | 350 | 2 | 32 |
| Laurent Robinson | ATL | 33 | 377 | 2 | 30 |
| Ernest Wilford | MIA | 21 | 303 | 2 | 30 |
| Rashied Davis | CHI | 28 | 345 | 1 | 30 |
| Devard Darling | KC | 22 | 312 | 2 | 29 |
| Chad Jackson | NE | 38 | 416 | 3 | 29 |
| Antonio Bryant | TB | 24 | 377 | 2 | 29 |
| Nate Washington | PIT | 15 | 251 | 2 | 27 |
| Limas Sweed | PIT | 25 | 324 | 2 | 25 |
| Demetrius Williams | BAL | 21 | 302 | 0 | 24 |
| Early Doucet | ARZ | 29 | 357 | 1 | 23 |
| Malcolm Kelly | WAS | 20 | 281 | 2 | 22 |
| Steve Breaston | ARZ | 29 | 297 | 1 | 22 |
| Brandon Jones | TEN | 20 | 249 | 1 | 22 |
| Jason Hill | SF | 24 | 294 | 1 | 22 |
| Mike Furrey | DET | 22 | 244 | 1 | 22 |
| Sam Hurd | DAL | 15 | 262 | 1 | 22 |
| Miles Austin | DAL | 12 | 197 | 1 | 21 |
| Ruvell Martin | GB | 14 | 229 | 1 | 21 |
| Robert Ferguson | MIN | 20 | 255 | 1 | 21 |
| Hank Baskett | PHI | 15 | 237 | 1 | 20 |
2008 Tight End Rankings
These are based on a scoring system with 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 points for rushing/receiving touchdowns, and -2 point for every fumble.
It penalizes players for with higher week-to-week variance by subtracting 1 standard deviation from their total stats.
It penalizes players for with higher week-to-week variance by subtracting 1 standard deviation from their total stats.
| Name | Team | Rec | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Points |
| Jason Witten | DAL | 81 | 1004 | 7 | 117 |
| Antonio Gates | SD | 73 | 910 | 8 | 112 |
| Chris Cooley | WAS | 70 | 752 | 7 | 93 |
| Tony Scheffler | DEN | 59 | 739 | 6 | 86 |
| Kellen Winslow | CLE | 80 | 901 | 4 | 84 |
| Jeremy Shockey | NO | 63 | 760 | 6 | 80 |
| Tony Gonzalez | KC | 77 | 778 | 3 | 79 |
| Owen Daniels | HOU | 59 | 746 | 5 | 78 |
| Dallas Clark | IND | 45 | 568 | 6 | 76 |
| Heath Miller | PIT | 45 | 529 | 6 | 70 |
| Vernon Davis | SF | 55 | 663 | 4 | 69 |
| Randy McMichael | STL | 57 | 631 | 4 | 65 |
| Todd Heap | BAL | 72 | 835 | 5 | 64 |
| Alge Crumpler | TEN | 45 | 574 | 5 | 63 |
| Zach Miller | OAK | 57 | 538 | 4 | 56 |
| Ben Watson | NE | 45 | 493 | 4 | 53 |
| Greg Olsen | CHI | 47 | 479 | 3 | 46 |
| LJ Smith | PHI | 48 | 547 | 5 | 44 |
| Desmond Clark | CHI | 33 | 394 | 3 | 44 |
| Mercedes Lewis | JAX | 41 | 439 | 3 | 44 |
| Kevin Boss | NYG | 37 | 467 | 4 | 41 |
| Donald Lee | GB | 33 | 373 | 1 | 34 |
| Chris Baker | NYJ | 28 | 278 | 3 | 32 |
| Anthony Fasano | MIA | 33 | 329 | 2 | 28 |
| Leonard Pope | ARZ | 20 | 215 | 3 | 28 |
| Alex Smith | TB | 28 | 268 | 3 | 27 |
| Jeb Putzier | SEA | 24 | 318 | 2 | 27 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | MIN | 31 | 327 | 1 | 24 |
| Sean McHugh | DET | 16 | 228 | 1 | 23 |
| Robert Royal | BUF | 25 | 251 | 1 | 22 |
| Michael Gaines | BUF | 25 | 226 | 1 | 22 |
| Jeff King | CAR | 25 | 222 | 2 | 22 |
| Ben Patrick | ARZ | 18 | 179 | 2 | 20 |
2008 Running Back Ratings
These are based on a scoring system with 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 points for rushing/receiving touchdowns, and -2 point for every fumble.
It penalizes players for with higher week-to-week variance by subtracting 1 standard deviation from their total stats.
It penalizes players for with higher week-to-week variance by subtracting 1 standard deviation from their total stats.
| Name | Team | Rec | Yards | TDs | Rush | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Points |
| Ladanian Tomlinson | SD | 46 | 338 | 3 | 320 | 1543 | 19 | 264 |
| Adrian Peterson | MIN | 25 | 287 | 1 | 294 | 1539 | 17 | 202 |
| Joseph Addai | IND | 40 | 373 | 3 | 270 | 1076 | 15 | 198 |
| Marion Barber | DAL | 59 | 445 | 3 | 270 | 1127 | 13 | 191 |
| Brian Westbrook | PHI | 72 | 657 | 4 | 225 | 1028 | 7 | 189 |
| Marshawn Lynch | BUF | 40 | 294 | 0 | 316 | 1332 | 10 | 184 |
| Clinton Portis | WAS | 50 | 390 | 1 | 325 | 1274 | 10 | 182 |
| Steven Jackson | STL | 47 | 396 | 2 | 325 | 1349 | 9 | 180 |
| Frank Gore | SF | 70 | 577 | 3 | 240 | 1152 | 5 | 163 |
| Jamal Lewis | CLE | 25 | 186 | 1 | 300 | 1171 | 9 | 149 |
| Ryan Grant | GB | 38 | 161 | 0 | 300 | 1193 | 9 | 147 |
| Larry Johnson | KC | 29 | 152 | 1 | 310 | 1332 | 9 | 147 |
| Brandon Jacobs | NYG | 31 | 284 | 2 | 250 | 1085 | 9 | 141 |
| Earnest Graham | TB | 26 | 176 | 0 | 225 | 951 | 11 | 140 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | JAX | 44 | 409 | 1 | 167 | 742 | 11 | 138 |
| Laurence Maroney | NE | 21 | 188 | 0 | 225 | 1060 | 8 | 133 |
| Edgerin James | ARZ | 20 | 184 | 0 | 300 | 1054 | 4 | 124 |
| Thomas Jones | NYJ | 27 | 176 | 1 | 290 | 1184 | 6 | 122 |
| Willis McGahee | BAL | 32 | 189 | 1 | 230 | 882 | 7 | 120 |
| Reggie Bush | NO | 77 | 587 | 3 | 160 | 623 | 6 | 119 |
| Matt Forte | CHI | 38 | 310 | 1 | 300 | 1140 | 8 | 119 |
| Ronnie Brown | MIA | 30 | 219 | 1 | 205 | 884 | 5 | 111 |
| Fred Taylor | JAX | 13 | 78 | 0 | 220 | 1020 | 5 | 109 |
| Justin Fargas | OAK | 22 | 167 | 0 | 200 | 854 | 5 | 100 |
| Jonathon Stewart | CAR | 24 | 183 | 2 | 200 | 875 | 5 | 95 |
| DeAngelo Williams | CAR | 23 | 183 | 1 | 200 | 875 | 4 | 93 |
| Maurice Morris | SEA | 22 | 170 | 1 | 180 | 769 | 4 | 91 |
| Lendale White | TEN | 19 | 98 | 0 | 190 | 691 | 7 | 91 |
| Darren McFadden | OAK | 30 | 232 | 1 | 200 | 732 | 6 | 90 |
| Selvin Young | DEN | 29 | 194 | 1 | 200 | 900 | 3 | 90 |
| Micheal Turner | ATL | 14 | 90 | 0 | 275 | 1080 | 4 | 90 |
| Chris Perry | CIN | 26 | 154 | 0 | 248 | 919 | 5 | 88 |
| Ricky Williams | MIA | 30 | 139 | 1 | 205 | 842 | 4 | 85 |
| Jerious Norwood | ATL | 29 | 267 | 1 | 130 | 786 | 1 | 82 |
| Chester Taylor | MIN | 25 | 177 | 0 | 140 | 632 | 4 | 82 |
| Willie Parker | PIT | 15 | 106 | 0 | 209 | 786 | 2 | 79 |
| Chris Johnson | TEN | 44 | 385 | 1 | 190 | 764 | 6 | 76 |
| Julius Jones | SEA | 19 | 155 | 1 | 180 | 698 | 2 | 71 |
| Ray Rice | BAL | 21 | 170 | 0 | 160 | 629 | 4 | 70 |
| Kenny Watson | CIN | 35 | 240 | 1 | 134 | 534 | 4 | 69 |
| Steve Slayton | HOU | 30 | 219 | 0 | 130 | 566 | 2 | 67 |
| Chris Taylor | HOU | 20 | 146 | 0 | 130 | 551 | 3 | 66 |
| Kevin Smith | DET | 22 | 158 | 1 | 200 | 740 | 3 | 66 |
| Kevin Jones | CHI | 15 | 109 | 1 | 150 | 555 | 2 | 61 |
| Felix Jones | DAL | 17 | 165 | 1 | 130 | 580 | 2 | 57 |
| Chris Brown | HOU | 20 | 141 | 1 | 110 | 468 | 2 | 56 |
| Ahman Green | HOU | 20 | 180 | 1 | 110 | 413 | 2 | 55 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | PIT | 10 | 80 | 0 | 148 | 543 | 6 | 52 |
| Pierre Thomas | NO | 23 | 213 | 1 | 125 | 578 | 5 | 51 |
| Leon Washington | NYJ | 27 | 211 | 1 | 71 | 334 | 2 | 50 |
| Duece McAllister | NO | 22 | 172 | 0 | 100 | 452 | 4 | 46 |
| Lamont Jordan | NE | 12 | 80 | 0 | 80 | 351 | 3 | 45 |
| Mewelde Moore | PIT | 18 | 169 | 2 | 80 | 316 | 1 | 44 |
| Ladell Betts | WAS | 20 | 169 | 1 | 93 | 338 | 1 | 41 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | NYG | 10 | 58 | 0 | 115 | 488 | 2 | 38 |
| Leonard Weaver | SEA | 33 | 273 | 1 | 30 | 134 | 1 | 38 |
| Warrick Dunn | TB | 10 | 92 | 0 | 80 | 305 | 1 | 36 |
| Kolby Smith | KC | 19 | 117 | 0 | 100 | 387 | 1 | 34 |
| Andre Hall | DEN | 115 | 483 | 3 | 33 | |||
| Fred Jackson | BUF | 15 | 141 | 0 | 58 | 322 | 0 | 32 |
| Cadilac Williams | TB | 7 | 40 | 0 | 64 | 251 | 4 | 31 |
| Tatum Bell | DET | 13 | 55 | 0 | 100 | 410 | 5 | 31 |
| Derrick Ward | NYG | 8 | 53 | 0 | 70 | 297 | 1 | 30 |
| Jason Wright | CLE | 12 | 118 | 0 | 60 | 261 | 1 | 30 |
| Antonio Pittman | STL | 9 | 55 | 0 | 75 | 285 | 1 | 28 |
| Micheal Pittman | DEN | 10 | 82 | 0 | 60 | 257 | 1 | 26 |
| Kevin Faulk | NE | 21 | 171 | 1 | 40 | 163 | 0 | 26 |
| Correll Buckhalter | PHI | 5 | 50 | 0 | 60 | 262 | 2 | 25 |
| Lorenzo Booker | PHI | 10 | 84 | 0 | 50 | 219 | 2 | 25 |
| Jesse Chatman | NYJ | 11 | 102 | 0 | 36 | 173 | 1 | 24 |
| Brian Calhoun | DET | 5 | 33 | 0 | 50 | 187 | 1 | 22 |
| Deshaun Foster | SF | 20 | 159 | 2 | 30 | 117 | 0 | 22 |
| JJ Arrington | ARZ | 24 | 212 | 1 | 24 | 70 | 0 | 22 |
| Brandon Jackson | GB | 18 | 138 | 0 | 45 | 157 | 1 | 22 |
| Dominc Rhodes | IND | 5 | 40 | 1 | 75 | 285 | 2 | 22 |
| Sammie Morris | NE | 5 | 25 | 0 | 35 | 150 | 2 | 22 |
| Brian Leonard | STL | 19 | 118 | 0 | 50 | 173 | 0 | 21 |
| Jamaal Charles | KC | 50 | 215 | 1 | 20 |
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
