For the first time, Chris Johnson (17 carries, 61 yards, 2 TDs) got significantly more carries than LenDale White (11 carries, 13 yards, 1 TD), and even got the ball in 2 goal-line situations, after White fumbled near the goal line on his only chance. White's plodding style just did not work agains the Vikings front, so we can expect Johnson to continue to get more carries, and he may not even get as may TDs stolen as I had thought.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings look commited to getting Adrian Peterson (18 carries) the ball over Chester Taylor (1 carry) when Peterson is fully healthy.
Showing newest 65 of 93 posts from September 2008. Show older posts
Showing newest 65 of 93 posts from September 2008. Show older posts
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
San Francisco - New Orleans Game Notes
The fact that Drew Brees can throw for 363 yards and 3 TDs with his top 2 receivers out is amazing. It looks like Lance Moore (7 catches, 101 yards, 2 TDs) has become his possession receiver, and Robert Meachum (2 catches, 99 yards, 1 TD) and Devery Henderson (1 catch, 81 yards) are his down-field threats.
What the Duece? With 83 yards on 21 touches, it looks like McAllister is part of the offense again. Just don't bet too much on him, as he remains an injury risk. Pierre Thomas becomes next to useless until Duece's next injury.
It appears that Mike Martz's offense has no emphasis on protecting the QB. O'Sullivan was sacked 6 times Sunday, and is taking the same kind of beating doled out to Jon Kitna last year. At this rate, he may not hold up for the season.
What the Duece? With 83 yards on 21 touches, it looks like McAllister is part of the offense again. Just don't bet too much on him, as he remains an injury risk. Pierre Thomas becomes next to useless until Duece's next injury.
It appears that Mike Martz's offense has no emphasis on protecting the QB. O'Sullivan was sacked 6 times Sunday, and is taking the same kind of beating doled out to Jon Kitna last year. At this rate, he may not hold up for the season.
Philadelphia - Chicago Game Notes
Brandon Lloyd, who was becoming Kyle Orton's #1 target on Chicago, was injured late in the first half. There is no official word on his injury yet, but expect him to miss a game at least.
Correll Buckhalter (16 carries for 66 yards and a TD, 2 catches for 24 yards) did a good job filling in for Brian Westbrook. Expect Westbrook to return and Buckhalter's role to minimize again.
DeSean Jackson (5-71-1) finally scored his first NFL touchdown after throwing one away against Dallas.
Correll Buckhalter (16 carries for 66 yards and a TD, 2 catches for 24 yards) did a good job filling in for Brian Westbrook. Expect Westbrook to return and Buckhalter's role to minimize again.
DeSean Jackson (5-71-1) finally scored his first NFL touchdown after throwing one away against Dallas.
Green Bay - Tampa Bay Game Notes
In case you needed evidence, Brian Griese (15-30-149-1-3) wont be having many more 400 yards days this season.
Earnest Graham (20 carries 111 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, but it was helped by a 47 yard run, and Warrick Dunn still carries 16 times. Don't expect Graham to put up these numbers with any kind of consistency.
For the second time this season, Ryan Grant carried 15 times for 20 yards. Some time soon, he should start losing carries to Brandon Jackson, who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry to Grant's 3.4. I wouldn't rely on either one of them right now.
Earnest Graham (20 carries 111 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, but it was helped by a 47 yard run, and Warrick Dunn still carries 16 times. Don't expect Graham to put up these numbers with any kind of consistency.
For the second time this season, Ryan Grant carried 15 times for 20 yards. Some time soon, he should start losing carries to Brandon Jackson, who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry to Grant's 3.4. I wouldn't rely on either one of them right now.
Baltimore - Pittsburgh Game Notes
Le'Ron MClain (16 carries 63 yards, 1 TD; 3 catches for 26 yards) again got the majority of the carries due to a Willis McGahee injury, and is clear cut starter 1B in Baltimore. Ray Rice (1 carry) is no doubt a third-string.
Rashard Mendenhall sent Rice a text message saying that he was going to have a "big game" against the Ravens. Maybe he meant to text "come up lame," as he is now on injured reserve with a broken left shoulder. Carey Davis (8 carries, 15 yards) got the majority of the carries until he too got hurt, then Mewelde Moore (8 carries, 13 yards) got a chance. Moore could not punch it in from the goal line, so if he starts next week, expect to see Davis or Najeh Davenport in short-yardage situations. Moore does make it on our waiver wire list, though.
Todd Heap had 0 catches. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Rashard Mendenhall sent Rice a text message saying that he was going to have a "big game" against the Ravens. Maybe he meant to text "come up lame," as he is now on injured reserve with a broken left shoulder. Carey Davis (8 carries, 15 yards) got the majority of the carries until he too got hurt, then Mewelde Moore (8 carries, 13 yards) got a chance. Moore could not punch it in from the goal line, so if he starts next week, expect to see Davis or Najeh Davenport in short-yardage situations. Moore does make it on our waiver wire list, though.
Todd Heap had 0 catches. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
New Poll
Either the polls aren't very interesting, or people aren't noticing them, because voting has gone way down while site traffic has increased.
Anyway, there is a new poll to the right. Voice your opinion now on how the Cowboys can fix their offense "in crisis." Maybe I should have put a government bail-out option...
Anyway, there is a new poll to the right. Voice your opinion now on how the Cowboys can fix their offense "in crisis." Maybe I should have put a government bail-out option...
San Diego - Oakland Game Notes
Jamarcus Russell (22-37-277, 1 TD, 1 INT) had has first no-kidding decent day, which should help his receivers some. Zach Miller (5-95-1) might be a legit TE2.
Micheal Bush (128 yards on 21 touches) did a good job with Fargas out and McFadden ailing, but will have to compete with both of them for touches after the bye week and with a new head coach.
Phillip Rivers (14-25-180, 1 TD, 2 INTs) struggled for the first time this season against a Raiders pass defense that had before been vulnerable.
Micheal Bush (128 yards on 21 touches) did a good job with Fargas out and McFadden ailing, but will have to compete with both of them for touches after the bye week and with a new head coach.
Phillip Rivers (14-25-180, 1 TD, 2 INTs) struggled for the first time this season against a Raiders pass defense that had before been vulnerable.
Week 5 Waiver Picks - With Updates
Ranked in order, with the most desirable pick-up on top:
Bobby Engram, WR, SEA (owned in 45% of leagues). He was on last week's list, but since he is still owned by less than 66% of leagues, he is still fair game. Should be in the starting lineup and get plenty of targets this week.
Matt Jones, WR, JAX (owned in 22% of leagues). He has caught at least 5 passes in every game this year, and got his first TD on Sunday. He will not put up eye-popping numbers in this offense, but that kind of consistency is hard to find at wideout.
Lance Moore, WR, NO (owned in 2% of leagues). Moore appears to be the winner of the "who will catch passes in New Orleans while Colston and Shockey are out?" sweepstakes. He has 7 catches in each of the last two weeks, and should continue to get plenty of looks over the next 4 or 5 games, until the Saints' top two receivers come back.
Zach Miller, TE, OAK (owned in 19% of leagues). Miller caught 5 balls for 95 yards, and had a long touchdown. Jamarcus Russell (23-37-277, 1 TD 1 INT) is making progress, and while I don't think Russell will be worth owning this year, Miller, his favorite target, would be a good TE2 on your fantasy team.
Duece McAllister (owned of 52% of leagues). After being inexplicably absent in the Saints first two games, he was inexplicably a major part of thier offense on Sunday, getting 20 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown. He even got the goal-line touches. He will probably get injured soon, but for now, he is definately worth owning.
Mewelde Moore, RB, PIT (owned in 1% of leagues). With Willie Parker out for week 5 and Rashard Mendenhall out for the season, Moore will get most of the carries for at least one game. Don't expect a whole lot behind a banged-up offensive line in Jacksonville. After a week 6 bye, FWP should be back, and the Steelers might even sign someone else (Najeh Davenport? Shuan Alexander?) to take away backup carries from Moore.
Steve Breaston, WR, ARZ (owned in 3% of leagues). Breaston had a career-high 9 catches for 122 yards, and it looks like Anquan Boldin will be out at least one week with an injury. He won't repeat today's numbers, but should be a good pick-up while Boldin is out.
Deion Branch, WR, SEA (owned in 24% of leagues). A poor man's Bobby Engram. Will start next week, but shouldn't get nearly as many targets.
Bobby Engram, WR, SEA (owned in 45% of leagues). He was on last week's list, but since he is still owned by less than 66% of leagues, he is still fair game. Should be in the starting lineup and get plenty of targets this week.
Matt Jones, WR, JAX (owned in 22% of leagues). He has caught at least 5 passes in every game this year, and got his first TD on Sunday. He will not put up eye-popping numbers in this offense, but that kind of consistency is hard to find at wideout.
Lance Moore, WR, NO (owned in 2% of leagues). Moore appears to be the winner of the "who will catch passes in New Orleans while Colston and Shockey are out?" sweepstakes. He has 7 catches in each of the last two weeks, and should continue to get plenty of looks over the next 4 or 5 games, until the Saints' top two receivers come back.
Zach Miller, TE, OAK (owned in 19% of leagues). Miller caught 5 balls for 95 yards, and had a long touchdown. Jamarcus Russell (23-37-277, 1 TD 1 INT) is making progress, and while I don't think Russell will be worth owning this year, Miller, his favorite target, would be a good TE2 on your fantasy team.
Duece McAllister (owned of 52% of leagues). After being inexplicably absent in the Saints first two games, he was inexplicably a major part of thier offense on Sunday, getting 20 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown. He even got the goal-line touches. He will probably get injured soon, but for now, he is definately worth owning.
Mewelde Moore, RB, PIT (owned in 1% of leagues). With Willie Parker out for week 5 and Rashard Mendenhall out for the season, Moore will get most of the carries for at least one game. Don't expect a whole lot behind a banged-up offensive line in Jacksonville. After a week 6 bye, FWP should be back, and the Steelers might even sign someone else (Najeh Davenport? Shuan Alexander?) to take away backup carries from Moore.
Steve Breaston, WR, ARZ (owned in 3% of leagues). Breaston had a career-high 9 catches for 122 yards, and it looks like Anquan Boldin will be out at least one week with an injury. He won't repeat today's numbers, but should be a good pick-up while Boldin is out.
Deion Branch, WR, SEA (owned in 24% of leagues). A poor man's Bobby Engram. Will start next week, but shouldn't get nearly as many targets.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Arizona - New York Jets Game Notes
Brett Favre won't throw for 6 TDs every week. There's your expert analysis.
It appears that Favre and L. Coles (8-105, 3 TDs) have worked out any problems that may have existed when Favre first came over.
Leon Washington (11 total touches) started to eat into Thomas Jones' (20 total touches) playing time. Don't worry about this, unless it happens again next week.
Steve Breaston (9-122) had a nice breakout game, and now figures to get a start or two with Anquan Boldin out.
It appears that Favre and L. Coles (8-105, 3 TDs) have worked out any problems that may have existed when Favre first came over.
Leon Washington (11 total touches) started to eat into Thomas Jones' (20 total touches) playing time. Don't worry about this, unless it happens again next week.
Steve Breaston (9-122) had a nice breakout game, and now figures to get a start or two with Anquan Boldin out.
Denver - Kansas City Game Notes
Denver continues to have no clear #1 running back. Ryan Torian is coming.
Eddie Royal (9-104) had his first big day with Brandon Marshall in the lineup; he should only continue to improve and may move past Marshall in a couple of years.
As a lot of experts (including yours truly) were ready to pronounce Larry Johnson done, he has come up with back-to-back great efforts. Granted, his 28 carry, 198 yard, 2 TD performance was against the lowly Broncos run defense, but at least he has shown an ability to put up numbers against bad defenses. Expect the hapless Chiefs to continue to ride him.
Eddie Royal (9-104) had his first big day with Brandon Marshall in the lineup; he should only continue to improve and may move past Marshall in a couple of years.
As a lot of experts (including yours truly) were ready to pronounce Larry Johnson done, he has come up with back-to-back great efforts. Granted, his 28 carry, 198 yard, 2 TD performance was against the lowly Broncos run defense, but at least he has shown an ability to put up numbers against bad defenses. Expect the hapless Chiefs to continue to ride him.
Cleveland - Cincinnati Game Notes
Derek Anderson continued his horrible play, but a 4th quarter rally staved off the Brady Quinn era for now. Expect Anderson to be kept on a short leash the rest of the season.
Jamal Lewis (25-79-1) had a good day, but not nearly as good as one might expect against the Bengals. This could spell trouble for Lewis, who has a very tough schedule this year.
Chris Perry (12-28-0) continued to do what he does, which is not impress. I can't believe he can go on like this all year without losing touches to Kenny Watson.
All the Bengals skill position players are in deep doo-doo if Carson Palmer does not recover from his elbow injury. This is starting to look like a lost season for the Bengals.
Jamal Lewis (25-79-1) had a good day, but not nearly as good as one might expect against the Bengals. This could spell trouble for Lewis, who has a very tough schedule this year.
Chris Perry (12-28-0) continued to do what he does, which is not impress. I can't believe he can go on like this all year without losing touches to Kenny Watson.
All the Bengals skill position players are in deep doo-doo if Carson Palmer does not recover from his elbow injury. This is starting to look like a lost season for the Bengals.
Atlanta - Carolina Game Notes
Roddy White (7 catches for 90 yards) had a nice game, proving he is the only member of the Falcons that can remain productive even in games where they struggle.
Jake Delhomme (20-29-294, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) seems to be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, and is even spreading the ball between Mushin Mohammed (8-147-1) and Steve Smith (6-96-1).
DeAngelo Williams (16 carries) and Johnathon Stewart (14 carries) continue to split carries, with Stewart getting the only goal-line carry and TD on Sunday.
Jake Delhomme (20-29-294, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) seems to be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, and is even spreading the ball between Mushin Mohammed (8-147-1) and Steve Smith (6-96-1).
DeAngelo Williams (16 carries) and Johnathon Stewart (14 carries) continue to split carries, with Stewart getting the only goal-line carry and TD on Sunday.
Washington - Dallas Game Notes
If Jason Campbell (20-31-231, 2 TDs, 0 Ints) doesn't stop developing at this pace, he will not be a draft-day bargain next year.
Clinton Portis (21 carries for 12 yards) looked like Marion Barber, breaking off long gains in the second half to keep the ball out of the hands of the Cowboys offense.
Santana Moss (8 catches for 145 yards) has shown the ability to be consistently productive, something I thought he was incapable of.
The Cowboys forgot that they had a pro bowl running back in Marion Barber (8 carries for 26 yards). The game was never so out of reach to abandon the running game the way they did, and I don't expect it to happen again.
Clinton Portis (21 carries for 12 yards) looked like Marion Barber, breaking off long gains in the second half to keep the ball out of the hands of the Cowboys offense.
Santana Moss (8 catches for 145 yards) has shown the ability to be consistently productive, something I thought he was incapable of.
The Cowboys forgot that they had a pro bowl running back in Marion Barber (8 carries for 26 yards). The game was never so out of reach to abandon the running game the way they did, and I don't expect it to happen again.
Houston - Jacksonville Game Notes
Matt Jones (5 catches, 71 yards, 1 TD) is becoming a legitimate go-to receiver for the Jaguars. Since he is owned in only 22% of leagues, he goes on our waiver list.
Maurice Jones-Drew (7 carries for 32 yards) and Fred Taylor (10 carries for 25 yards) had their third poor combined-yardage game of the year. This has to have their owners fretting about the banged-up Jaguars O-line.
Matt Schaub (29 of 40 for 307 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) quieted those calling for his ouster, at least for a week. Seriously, he finally looked good, in part because his offensive line was able to keep him off his back.
Andre Johnson (3 catches for 38 yards) did not have a big performance after his two-TD drop game last week. Owen Daniels (7 catches for 87 yards) and Steve Slaton (8 for 83, 1 TD) did most of the damage in the Texans passing game. Johnson was targeted 7 times in the game, and should be just fine.
Maurice Jones-Drew (7 carries for 32 yards) and Fred Taylor (10 carries for 25 yards) had their third poor combined-yardage game of the year. This has to have their owners fretting about the banged-up Jaguars O-line.
Matt Schaub (29 of 40 for 307 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) quieted those calling for his ouster, at least for a week. Seriously, he finally looked good, in part because his offensive line was able to keep him off his back.
Andre Johnson (3 catches for 38 yards) did not have a big performance after his two-TD drop game last week. Owen Daniels (7 catches for 87 yards) and Steve Slaton (8 for 83, 1 TD) did most of the damage in the Texans passing game. Johnson was targeted 7 times in the game, and should be just fine.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Week 5 Waiver Picks
Ranked in order, with the most desirable pick-up on top:
Bobby Engram, WR, SEA (owned in 45% of leagues). He was on last week's list, but since he is still owned by less than 66% of leagues, he is still fair game. Should be in the starting lineup and get plenty of targets this week.
Matt Jones, WR, JAX (owned in 22% of leagues). He has caught at least 5 passes in every game this year, and got his first TD on Sunday. He will not put up eye-popping numbers in this offense, but that kind of consistency is hard to find at wideout.
Lance Moore, WR, NO (owned in 2% of leagues). Moore appears to be the winner of the "who will catch passes in New Orleans while Colston and Shockey are out?" sweepstakes. He has 7 catches in each of the last two weeks, and should continue to get plenty of looks over the next 4 or 5 games, until the Saints' top two receivers come back.
Zach Miller, TE, OAK (owned in 19% of leagues). Miller caught 5 balls for 95 yards, and had a long touchdown. Jamarcus Russell (23-37-277, 1 TD 1 INT) is making progress, and while I don't think Russell will be worth owning this year, Miller, his favorite target, would be a good TE2 on your fantasy team.
Duece McAllister (owned of 52% of leagues). After being inexplicably absent in the Saints first two games, he was inexplicably a major part of thier offense on Sunday, getting 20 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown. He even got the goal-line touches. He will probably get injured soon, but for now, he is definately worth owning.
Steve Breaston, WR, ARZ (owned in 3% of leagues). Breaston had a career-high 9 catches for 122 yards, and it looks like Anquan Boldin will be out at least one week with an injury. He won't repeat today's numbers, but should be a good pick-up while Boldin is out.
Deion Branch, WR, SEA (owned in 24% of leagues). A poor man's Bobby Engram. Will start next week, but shouldn't get nearly as many targets.
Bobby Engram, WR, SEA (owned in 45% of leagues). He was on last week's list, but since he is still owned by less than 66% of leagues, he is still fair game. Should be in the starting lineup and get plenty of targets this week.
Matt Jones, WR, JAX (owned in 22% of leagues). He has caught at least 5 passes in every game this year, and got his first TD on Sunday. He will not put up eye-popping numbers in this offense, but that kind of consistency is hard to find at wideout.
Lance Moore, WR, NO (owned in 2% of leagues). Moore appears to be the winner of the "who will catch passes in New Orleans while Colston and Shockey are out?" sweepstakes. He has 7 catches in each of the last two weeks, and should continue to get plenty of looks over the next 4 or 5 games, until the Saints' top two receivers come back.
Zach Miller, TE, OAK (owned in 19% of leagues). Miller caught 5 balls for 95 yards, and had a long touchdown. Jamarcus Russell (23-37-277, 1 TD 1 INT) is making progress, and while I don't think Russell will be worth owning this year, Miller, his favorite target, would be a good TE2 on your fantasy team.
Duece McAllister (owned of 52% of leagues). After being inexplicably absent in the Saints first two games, he was inexplicably a major part of thier offense on Sunday, getting 20 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown. He even got the goal-line touches. He will probably get injured soon, but for now, he is definately worth owning.
Steve Breaston, WR, ARZ (owned in 3% of leagues). Breaston had a career-high 9 catches for 122 yards, and it looks like Anquan Boldin will be out at least one week with an injury. He won't repeat today's numbers, but should be a good pick-up while Boldin is out.
Deion Branch, WR, SEA (owned in 24% of leagues). A poor man's Bobby Engram. Will start next week, but shouldn't get nearly as many targets.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Week 4 Matchups - Running Game
Attached are the match ups for week 4. The column titled "Def RYds" is the amount of rushing yards the team gives up, compared to a league-average defense. For example, the Eagles give up only 32% as many rushing yards as a league-average defense. The column titled "Def RTDs" is the amount of rushing TDs the team gives up, compared to a league-average defense.
Through 3 weeks, there are 8 teams with outstanding run defenses. I think that all these defenses are for real, but some of the numbers will obviously go up as the season wears on. That is bad news for Matt Forte, Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain, Rashard Mendenhall, LenDale White, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Correll Buckhalter, and Steven Jackson this weekend.
| Team | Def RYds | Def RTDs | Opponent |
| Eagles | 32% | 34% | Bears |
| Steelers | 38% | 36% | Ravens |
| Ravens | 40% | 35% | Steelers |
| Vikings | 47% | 98% | Titans |
| Titans | 49% | 55% | Vikings |
| Cowboys | 55% | 97% | Redskins |
| Bears | 63% | 62% | Eagles |
| Bills | 68% | 84% | Rams |
| Browns | 85% | 86% | Bengals |
| Broncos | 87% | 65% | Chiefs |
| Chargers | 90% | 36% | Raiders |
| Panthers | 90% | 46% | Falcons |
| Jets | 92% | 161% | Cardinals |
| Cardinals | 92% | 77% | Jets |
| Raiders | 97% | 97% | Chargers |
| Jaguars | 102% | 128% | Texans |
| Buccaneers | 103% | 24% | Packers |
| Saints | 111% | 77% | 49ers |
| Redskins | 111% | 61% | Cowboys |
| Bengals | 114% | 97% | Browns |
| Packers | 115% | 93% | Buccaneers |
| Texans | 128% | 378% | Jaguars |
| Rams | 141% | 153% | Bills |
| Chiefs | 149% | 203% | Broncos |
| 49ers | 168% | 98% | Saints |
| Falcons | 185% | 293% | Panthers |
Through 3 weeks, there are 8 teams with outstanding run defenses. I think that all these defenses are for real, but some of the numbers will obviously go up as the season wears on. That is bad news for Matt Forte, Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain, Rashard Mendenhall, LenDale White, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Correll Buckhalter, and Steven Jackson this weekend.
Week 4 Matchups - Passing Game
Attached are the match ups for week 4. The column titled "Def PYds" is the amount of passing yards the team gives up, compared to a league-average defense. For example, the Ravens give up 56% as many passing yards as a league-average defense. The column titled "Def PTDs" is the amount of passing TDs the team gives up, compared to a league-average defense.
The only top passing defense that I don't buy into is the 49ers, who have such a porous run defense that no one really needs to pass on them. The Saints will probably throw this weekend, and have success, so I wouldn't downgrade Brees any due to opponent (who he is going to throw to, on the other hand, is a different concern).
Every other defense above the Falcons are legitimately good (the Falcons have the same terrible run defense problem as the 49ers), so you might want to downgrade the passing games of their opponents.
The five teams on the bottom of this list, with the exception of the Chargers, have serious and real pass defense problems. So, I would feel good about starting QBs and receivers from the 49ers, Eagles, and Chargers this weekend. The Chiefs might get a boost, and I would start Bowe or Gonzalez, but I cannot bring myself to recommend Damon Haurd.
| Team | Def PYds | Def PTDs | Opponent |
| Ravens | 56% | 73% | Steelers |
| 49ers | 67% | 48% | Saints |
| Redskins | 70% | 68% | Cowboys |
| Steelers | 73% | 68% | Ravens |
| Titans | 77% | 61% | Vikings |
| Cowboys | 78% | 67% | Redskins |
| Falcons | 80% | 90% | Panthers |
| Panthers | 86% | 84% | Falcons |
| Cardinals | 89% | 53% | Jets |
| Bengals | 89% | 72% | Browns |
| Packers | 92% | 91% | Buccaneers |
| Rams | 92% | 191% | Bills |
| Chiefs | 97% | 101% | Broncos |
| Texans | 98% | 143% | Jaguars |
| Bills | 100% | 88% | Rams |
| Jets | 102% | 103% | Cardinals |
| Jaguars | 102% | 90% | Texans |
| Browns | 108% | 58% | Bengals |
| Vikings | 110% | 70% | Titans |
| Eagles | 110% | 55% | Bears |
| Buccaneers | 113% | 179% | Packers |
| Saints | 123% | 81% | 49ers |
| Bears | 124% | 78% | Eagles |
| Raiders | 124% | 95% | Chargers |
| Broncos | 152% | 128% | Chiefs |
| Chargers | 168% | 204% | Raiders |
The only top passing defense that I don't buy into is the 49ers, who have such a porous run defense that no one really needs to pass on them. The Saints will probably throw this weekend, and have success, so I wouldn't downgrade Brees any due to opponent (who he is going to throw to, on the other hand, is a different concern).
Every other defense above the Falcons are legitimately good (the Falcons have the same terrible run defense problem as the 49ers), so you might want to downgrade the passing games of their opponents.
The five teams on the bottom of this list, with the exception of the Chargers, have serious and real pass defense problems. So, I would feel good about starting QBs and receivers from the 49ers, Eagles, and Chargers this weekend. The Chiefs might get a boost, and I would start Bowe or Gonzalez, but I cannot bring myself to recommend Damon Haurd.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
True Player Values - Quarterbacks, Week 3
This new toy is almost too much fun. Here are the to-date True Player Values for QBs:
Eli Manning number 2? So far, the defenses he has faced are Washington (70.1%), St Louis (92.1%), and Cincinnati (89.4%). Its hard to believe that the Rams and Bengals actually have better than average pass defenses. In the Rams case, this is because people can run on them so easily, they don't need to pass. The Bengals defensive rating was wind-aided in their game against the Titans. I think this is a problem caused by sample size that will work itself out in the next few weeks. Anyway, Manning's next four games are against Seattle (124.1%), Cleveland (107.9%), Seattle (66.5%), and Pittsburgh (73.4%). So he might have a good game against the Seahawks, but other than that, I don't really see him putting up any better numbers than he has to this point.
Kurt Warner is the #3 QB by TPV, and #9 by actual yardage. His opponents to date have been San Francisco (66.5%), Miami (105.3%), and Washington (70.1%). His next four are the Jets (101.7%), Buffalo (100.1%), Dallas (78.2%), and Carolina (86%). So he could have a couple of good games, then a few tougher games.
Jay Cutler, one of our favorites, is the #2 passer by yards in the NFL but only #12 by TPV. So far, he has faced some pretty poor pass defenses: Oakland (124%), San Diego (167.8%), and New Orleans (123.1%). I expect that Oakland and San Diego are actually better than that, so Cutler's TPV should improve. His next four opponents are Kansas City (96.5), Tampa Bay (112.8%), Jacksonville (102.1%), and New England (114.8%). So, for the most part, he will continue to face below average defenses. His numbers may drop off a little, but there is no need to panic here.
Brett Favre owners, on the other hand, might have cause for concern. He is the #14 passer in terms of actual yardage, but #23 in terms of TPV. He has faced nothing but below average pass defenses in Miami (105.3%), New England (114.8%), and San Diego (167.8). Again, New England and San Diego's defenses are probably better than that (did I mention sample size), but they have been underperforming to date. He faces Arizona (89.4%) , Cincinnati (89.4%), Oakland (124%), and Kansas City (96.5%). Some of these defensive numbers may go up, meaning Favre's upcoming schedule probably isn't as tough as it looks.
So I don't think there are any great epiphanies here - Eli and Warner might be slightly better than their numbers indicate, and Cutler and Favre might be slightly worse. But none of these numbers jump out as something alarming or revealing.
| Name | Comp | Att | P Yards | P TDs | Int |
| Donavon McNabb | 70 | 105 | 1017 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 65 | 107 | 912 | 3 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 54 | 84 | 911 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 84 | 113 | 888 | 3.9 | 3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 64 | 99 | 866 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 62 | 92 | 861 | 8.2 | 3 |
| Jon Kitna | 60 | 104 | 846 | 6.5 | 5 |
| Phillip Rivers | 57 | 85 | 744 | 8.8 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 71 | 120 | 701 | 3.8 | 4 |
| David Garrard | 56 | 85 | 681 | 1.6 | 4 |
| JT O'Sullivan | 50 | 75 | 668 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 73 | 108 | 663 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 47 | 97 | 659 | 1.7 | 3 |
| Trent Edwards | 63 | 94 | 632 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 54 | 87 | 625 | 1.1 | 2 |
| Carson Palmer | 53 | 91 | 619 | 0.7 | 3 |
| Jason Campbell | 61 | 93 | 600 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 43 | 93 | 596 | 2.9 | 5 |
| Chad Pennington | 53 | 83 | 567 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 56 | 98 | 528 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Matt Schaub | 42 | 70 | 517 | 1.5 | 5 |
| Matt Ryan | 34 | 64 | 502 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Brett Favre | 63 | 90 | 502 | 4 | 3 |
| Marc Bulger | 52 | 89 | 457 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Matt Cassel | 48 | 72 | 443 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 38 | 58 | 430 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 52 | 91 | 424 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 30 | 49 | 398 | 2.1 | 1 |
Eli Manning number 2? So far, the defenses he has faced are Washington (70.1%), St Louis (92.1%), and Cincinnati (89.4%). Its hard to believe that the Rams and Bengals actually have better than average pass defenses. In the Rams case, this is because people can run on them so easily, they don't need to pass. The Bengals defensive rating was wind-aided in their game against the Titans. I think this is a problem caused by sample size that will work itself out in the next few weeks. Anyway, Manning's next four games are against Seattle (124.1%), Cleveland (107.9%), Seattle (66.5%), and Pittsburgh (73.4%). So he might have a good game against the Seahawks, but other than that, I don't really see him putting up any better numbers than he has to this point.
Kurt Warner is the #3 QB by TPV, and #9 by actual yardage. His opponents to date have been San Francisco (66.5%), Miami (105.3%), and Washington (70.1%). His next four are the Jets (101.7%), Buffalo (100.1%), Dallas (78.2%), and Carolina (86%). So he could have a couple of good games, then a few tougher games.
Jay Cutler, one of our favorites, is the #2 passer by yards in the NFL but only #12 by TPV. So far, he has faced some pretty poor pass defenses: Oakland (124%), San Diego (167.8%), and New Orleans (123.1%). I expect that Oakland and San Diego are actually better than that, so Cutler's TPV should improve. His next four opponents are Kansas City (96.5), Tampa Bay (112.8%), Jacksonville (102.1%), and New England (114.8%). So, for the most part, he will continue to face below average defenses. His numbers may drop off a little, but there is no need to panic here.
Brett Favre owners, on the other hand, might have cause for concern. He is the #14 passer in terms of actual yardage, but #23 in terms of TPV. He has faced nothing but below average pass defenses in Miami (105.3%), New England (114.8%), and San Diego (167.8). Again, New England and San Diego's defenses are probably better than that (did I mention sample size), but they have been underperforming to date. He faces Arizona (89.4%) , Cincinnati (89.4%), Oakland (124%), and Kansas City (96.5%). Some of these defensive numbers may go up, meaning Favre's upcoming schedule probably isn't as tough as it looks.
So I don't think there are any great epiphanies here - Eli and Warner might be slightly better than their numbers indicate, and Cutler and Favre might be slightly worse. But none of these numbers jump out as something alarming or revealing.
True Player Values - Running Backs Revisited
Oops. I found a mistake in my TPV algorithm that did not account for the fact that the Ravens and Texans have played 1 fewer game than everyone else. The result was the the ratings for their defenses were artificially high, making the rating for all running backs that have played them artificially high. When I saw that the Ravens defensive ratings were very high, it did not surprise me, but when I saw the Texans defense rated very high, I realized that something was amiss. That has now been fixed.
So the previous running back rankings posted yesterday where flawed. Here are the (hopefully) correct ones:
I don't think anyone should be surprised to see Barber at the top of this list, but the next four guys all warrant a closer look.
Lewis, Slayton, and Perry have all faced a combination of Dallas (54.6%), Pittsburgh (37.9%), Baltimore (40.2%), Tennessee (49.3%), and the Giants (60.4%), who happen to be 5 of the top 7 run defenses in the league. (The number in parens next to each team are their True Player Value defensive rating - it is the percentage of rush yards that the defense gives up compared to a league-average defense). So their mediocre-to-good performances against only great defenses have really increased their adjusted stats.
Over the next four games, Lewis faces Cincinnati (114%), the Giants (60.4%), Washington (111.3%), and Jacksonville (102.2 %). Now, I expect the Redskins and Jaguars defenses to improve some, but Lewis only has 1 defense in the class of what he started out against over his next four games. I really expect him to right the ship.
Steve Slaton, on the other hand, faces Jacksonville (102.2 %), Indianapolis (153.6%), Miami (122.1 %), and Detriot (144.7%) over the next four games. He should own the city of Houston by the time that stretch of games is over. If you read this blog before your draft, you already own Slaton. Otherwise, if there is any way you can get Slaton, pounce on him.
Chris Perry draws Cleveland (84.8%), Dallas (54.6%), the Jets (91.8%), and Pittsburgh (37.9%) over the next four games. He might be better than his real numbers to date, but his schedule aint getting any easier. Pass on Perry.
Ryan Grant is rated so high based on his 92 yards against Minnesota, which come out to 196 adjusted yards. In contrast, his 20 yards against Detriot equate to 14 yards adjusted. That is quite a bit of inconsistency, not one of the things we look for here at FFV. Anyway, his next four games are against Tampa Bay (103.3%), Atlanta (185.2%), Seattle (79.4%), and Indianapolis (153.6%). A few chumps on the schedule and getting healthier should equate to better numbers for Grant.
So, in summation, expect Lewis, Slaton, and Grant to put up improved numbers over the next few weeks, but expect Chris Perry to keep performing at about the same level.
So the previous running back rankings posted yesterday where flawed. Here are the (hopefully) correct ones:
| Name | Rush | Ru Yards | Ru TDs |
| Marion Barber | 62 | 415 | 6.3 |
| Jamal Lewis | 44 | 352 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 31 | 348 | 1.8 |
| Chris Perry | 59 | 343 | 4.1 |
| Ryan Grant | 40 | 307 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 65 | 298 | 3.9 |
| Steven Jackson | 50 | 296 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 66 | 294 | 0.8 |
| Adrian Peterson | 65 | 278 | 1.1 |
| Frank Gore | 60 | 268 | 3.6 |
| Matt Forte | 73 | 268 | 1.3 |
| Michael Turner | 59 | 261 | 2.7 |
| Chris Johnson | 50 | 242 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 61 | 240 | 1.7 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 60 | 237 | 4.5 |
| Darren McFadden | 44 | 225 | 0.5 |
| Jonathon Stewart | 31 | 211 | 4.3 |
| Ladanian Tomlinson | 57 | 210 | 1.2 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 39 | 201 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 42 | 201 | 2.7 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 50 | 199 | 1 |
| Edgerin James | 62 | 187 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 43 | 187 | 2.6 |
| Fred Taylor | 49 | 186 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 26 | 182 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 18 | 170 | 2.2 |
| Earnest Graham | 37 | 169 | 0.3 |
| Thomas Jones | 49 | 160 | 0.9 |
| Reggie Bush | 42 | 158 | 1.5 |
| Le'Ron McClain | 36 | 152 | 2.3 |
I don't think anyone should be surprised to see Barber at the top of this list, but the next four guys all warrant a closer look.
Lewis, Slayton, and Perry have all faced a combination of Dallas (54.6%), Pittsburgh (37.9%), Baltimore (40.2%), Tennessee (49.3%), and the Giants (60.4%), who happen to be 5 of the top 7 run defenses in the league. (The number in parens next to each team are their True Player Value defensive rating - it is the percentage of rush yards that the defense gives up compared to a league-average defense). So their mediocre-to-good performances against only great defenses have really increased their adjusted stats.
Over the next four games, Lewis faces Cincinnati (114%), the Giants (60.4%), Washington (111.3%), and Jacksonville (102.2 %). Now, I expect the Redskins and Jaguars defenses to improve some, but Lewis only has 1 defense in the class of what he started out against over his next four games. I really expect him to right the ship.
Steve Slaton, on the other hand, faces Jacksonville (102.2 %), Indianapolis (153.6%), Miami (122.1 %), and Detriot (144.7%) over the next four games. He should own the city of Houston by the time that stretch of games is over. If you read this blog before your draft, you already own Slaton. Otherwise, if there is any way you can get Slaton, pounce on him.
Chris Perry draws Cleveland (84.8%), Dallas (54.6%), the Jets (91.8%), and Pittsburgh (37.9%) over the next four games. He might be better than his real numbers to date, but his schedule aint getting any easier. Pass on Perry.
Ryan Grant is rated so high based on his 92 yards against Minnesota, which come out to 196 adjusted yards. In contrast, his 20 yards against Detriot equate to 14 yards adjusted. That is quite a bit of inconsistency, not one of the things we look for here at FFV. Anyway, his next four games are against Tampa Bay (103.3%), Atlanta (185.2%), Seattle (79.4%), and Indianapolis (153.6%). A few chumps on the schedule and getting healthier should equate to better numbers for Grant.
So, in summation, expect Lewis, Slaton, and Grant to put up improved numbers over the next few weeks, but expect Chris Perry to keep performing at about the same level.
My Week on the Waiver Wire
Two weeks into the season, and I've already used $58 of my $100 free agent budget. Time for some fiscal responsibility.
For the first time, I'm not desperate for QB help. I picked up JT O'Sullivan last week, and he should be fine to start against the Saints this week.
Brian Westbrook's injury does pose a problem, though. Correll Buckhalter is available, so I need to go after him. However, since I also have Brandon Jacobs, Thomas Jones, Ronnie Brown, and Ray Rice, I don't HAVE to get him, so will bid $5 on him and hope no one else wants to spend more than that for what would be to them, a 1-week fill-in. If I get him, I will drop Ray Rice.
If I don't get him, I will bid $1 on Bobby Engram, who will be a great addition in this PPR league. If I miss out on Engram, I will bid $1 on Sidney Rice, who I believe will put up better numbers now that he has a QB that can throw down the field, and who also will balance out my team by keeping the number of guys I have named "Rice" at 1.
For the first time, I'm not desperate for QB help. I picked up JT O'Sullivan last week, and he should be fine to start against the Saints this week.
Brian Westbrook's injury does pose a problem, though. Correll Buckhalter is available, so I need to go after him. However, since I also have Brandon Jacobs, Thomas Jones, Ronnie Brown, and Ray Rice, I don't HAVE to get him, so will bid $5 on him and hope no one else wants to spend more than that for what would be to them, a 1-week fill-in. If I get him, I will drop Ray Rice.
If I don't get him, I will bid $1 on Bobby Engram, who will be a great addition in this PPR league. If I miss out on Engram, I will bid $1 on Sidney Rice, who I believe will put up better numbers now that he has a QB that can throw down the field, and who also will balance out my team by keeping the number of guys I have named "Rice" at 1.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
True Player Values - Running Backs, Week 3
After a lot of work to our database program (there were some errors in the matrix solving algorithm), we finally came up with True Player Values through the first 3 weeks of the season. For those of you that don't want to read down to find out what True Player Values are, they basically adjust a player's stats for the defense that he faced.
One thing that I found out after the program spat out the results is that at this point in the season, the meaning of True Player Values is hard to interpret. The reason for this is that one outstanding performance in three games can tilt the overall rankings way too much. My first inclination to fix this problem was to average this year's defensive ratings with last year's, to get some stability in the ratings, or to use the last few weeks of last season to get more games in the equation. The problem is, I don't know exactly how many weeks of games I need to use until the numbers start to be reliable. So, for this season, I am just going to publish the numbers from this year's games, and we will hopefully see when the numbers start to make sense. My guess is that this will occur around week 8. Using this information, we can have a better idea of how to adjust these numbers for next season.
Of course, we could find that these calculations are correct and the guys on the top of the list this week will wind up being the statistical leaders for the year, but I doubt it.
Since these numbers right now are just "for fun," I will only post them sporadically, on slow fantasy news days.
So here are the league's top rushers, using True Player Values:
The top 5 rushers in the league, in terms of real yardage, are 1) Micheal Turner, 2) Adrian Peterson, 3) Julius Jones, 4) Matt Forte, and 5) Frank Gore. Those guys rank 12th, 11th, 15th, 13th, and 9th on this list. All of these guys have had big days that have been discounted because they were against terrible teams, such as the Lions, Colts, or Rams. Furthermore, the Lions, Colts, and Rams have really bad defensive ratings because they gave up a lot of yards to these guys, which penalizes the players even more. This is one of the effects that I think will go away after a few more weeks of stats are accumulated.
It is interesting to note that Jamal Lewis has been running better than anyone according to these stats, because he has faced Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, three teams that give up less than 50% of the rushing yards of a league average defense. When Cleveland faces lesser run defenses, Lewis should be fine.
Its also interesting to see Chris Perry so high. He has faced Baltimore, Tennessee, and the Giants, also three much better than average defenses. The problem with both Perry and Lewis is that both of their teams have brutal schedules in terms of run defenses, so they won't get many opportunities to show just how good they are.
Ryan Grant, on the other hand, will be facing some lesser run defenses in coming weeks, so it will be interesting to see if he breaks out.
NOTE: A previous version of this post had a rounding problem that gave everyone either 0 or 1 TD. This has been fixed.
NOTE: Another bug was found in the database that invalidates all these numbers. An updated post, with correct numbers and more analysis, is found here.
One thing that I found out after the program spat out the results is that at this point in the season, the meaning of True Player Values is hard to interpret. The reason for this is that one outstanding performance in three games can tilt the overall rankings way too much. My first inclination to fix this problem was to average this year's defensive ratings with last year's, to get some stability in the ratings, or to use the last few weeks of last season to get more games in the equation. The problem is, I don't know exactly how many weeks of games I need to use until the numbers start to be reliable. So, for this season, I am just going to publish the numbers from this year's games, and we will hopefully see when the numbers start to make sense. My guess is that this will occur around week 8. Using this information, we can have a better idea of how to adjust these numbers for next season.
Of course, we could find that these calculations are correct and the guys on the top of the list this week will wind up being the statistical leaders for the year, but I doubt it.
Since these numbers right now are just "for fun," I will only post them sporadically, on slow fantasy news days.
So here are the league's top rushers, using True Player Values:
| Name | Rush | Ru Yards | Ru TDs |
| Jamal Lewis | 44 | 456 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 62 | 411 | 2.9 |
| Chris Perry | 59 | 398 | 1.8 |
| Willie Parker | 66 | 375 | 1.1 |
| Ryan Grant | 40 | 326 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 50 | 320 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 65 | 318 | 2.1 |
| Chris Johnson | 50 | 286 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 60 | 279 | 2 |
| Steve Slaton | 31 | 267 | 0.8 |
| Adrian Peterson | 65 | 264 | 0.6 |
| Michael Turner | 59 | 262 | 1.8 |
| Matt Forte | 73 | 254 | 0.7 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 60 | 254 | 2.5 |
| Julius Jones | 61 | 223 | 1 |
| Jonathon Stewart | 31 | 222 | 2.3 |
| Darren McFadden | 44 | 214 | 0.3 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 39 | 210 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 43 | 203 | 1.6 |
| Ladanian Tomlinson | 57 | 202 | 0.9 |
| Brian Westbrook | 42 | 195 | 1.6 |
| Selvin Young | 26 | 190 | 0.6 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 50 | 179 | 0.5 |
| Edgerin James | 62 | 177 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 37 | 174 | 0.3 |
| Fred Taylor | 49 | 165 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 49 | 160 | 0.6 |
| Felix Jones | 18 | 158 | 1.1 |
| Lendale White | 49 | 156 | 1.8 |
| Reggie Bush | 42 | 150 | 0.8 |
The top 5 rushers in the league, in terms of real yardage, are 1) Micheal Turner, 2) Adrian Peterson, 3) Julius Jones, 4) Matt Forte, and 5) Frank Gore. Those guys rank 12th, 11th, 15th, 13th, and 9th on this list. All of these guys have had big days that have been discounted because they were against terrible teams, such as the Lions, Colts, or Rams. Furthermore, the Lions, Colts, and Rams have really bad defensive ratings because they gave up a lot of yards to these guys, which penalizes the players even more. This is one of the effects that I think will go away after a few more weeks of stats are accumulated.
It is interesting to note that Jamal Lewis has been running better than anyone according to these stats, because he has faced Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, three teams that give up less than 50% of the rushing yards of a league average defense. When Cleveland faces lesser run defenses, Lewis should be fine.
Its also interesting to see Chris Perry so high. He has faced Baltimore, Tennessee, and the Giants, also three much better than average defenses. The problem with both Perry and Lewis is that both of their teams have brutal schedules in terms of run defenses, so they won't get many opportunities to show just how good they are.
Ryan Grant, on the other hand, will be facing some lesser run defenses in coming weeks, so it will be interesting to see if he breaks out.
NOTE: A previous version of this post had a rounding problem that gave everyone either 0 or 1 TD. This has been fixed.
NOTE: Another bug was found in the database that invalidates all these numbers. An updated post, with correct numbers and more analysis, is found here.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Explaining True Player Values
In the next week or so, I am going to start publishing players' True Player Value stats. So, I thought that now would be a good time to review what True Player Value is.
I have written a couple of posts in the past about True Player Value, so instead of making you dig through the blog to find them, I have consolidated them in this post, with a brief description.
True Player Value attempts to answer the question "How would a player perform if each of his games was played against a league-average defense?" The process basically involves rating each team's defense, then adjusting the stats of players to reflect what they would have done against an average defense. Thus, players with big games against the Raiders, Chiefs, and Lions are downgraded, while the stats of players that had to face the Vikings and Titans are improved. This makes it easy to see whose fast starts are for real, and who has benefited from facing porous defenses. Of course, the opposite is also true, as it will allow us to put a slow start in perspective if the player faced a tough schedule early in the season.
The entire formula for calculating team ratings used in calculating True Player Value can be found here.
Another thing that we look for in our projections is week-to-week consistency. Thus, we feel that players who have a lower standard deviation on their week-to-week adjusted performances are players that we should target. This will hopefully keep our fantasy team scoring at a consistent level, as opposed to scorching a team one week and laying an egg the next. How we use standard deviation in our projections is discussed here.
Finally, we like to reward players with nice matchups in the fantasy playoffs, so we weight those games slightly more strongly than others. An explanation of how we do that is found here.
I have written a couple of posts in the past about True Player Value, so instead of making you dig through the blog to find them, I have consolidated them in this post, with a brief description.
True Player Value attempts to answer the question "How would a player perform if each of his games was played against a league-average defense?" The process basically involves rating each team's defense, then adjusting the stats of players to reflect what they would have done against an average defense. Thus, players with big games against the Raiders, Chiefs, and Lions are downgraded, while the stats of players that had to face the Vikings and Titans are improved. This makes it easy to see whose fast starts are for real, and who has benefited from facing porous defenses. Of course, the opposite is also true, as it will allow us to put a slow start in perspective if the player faced a tough schedule early in the season.
The entire formula for calculating team ratings used in calculating True Player Value can be found here.
Another thing that we look for in our projections is week-to-week consistency. Thus, we feel that players who have a lower standard deviation on their week-to-week adjusted performances are players that we should target. This will hopefully keep our fantasy team scoring at a consistent level, as opposed to scorching a team one week and laying an egg the next. How we use standard deviation in our projections is discussed here.
Finally, we like to reward players with nice matchups in the fantasy playoffs, so we weight those games slightly more strongly than others. An explanation of how we do that is found here.
Green Finally the Starter in St Louis
In somewhat of a surprise/desperation move, Rams coach Scott Linehan has benched Marc Bulger and will start Trent Green.
This move is not without irony. If you remember, Green was the starter in 1999 until a pre-season injury knocked him out of the lineup and allowed virtual unknown Kurt Warner to take the reigns of the greatest show on turf. If not for that injury, Green could have won an MVP or two under the Mike Martz system with Marshall Faulk, Issac Bruce, and Torry Holt in their primes. (Note: Green did start a few games for the Rams in 2000, when Warner was injured).
With the demotion of Bulger, Green finally gets the starting gig he missed out on, though with considerably less talent around him. The results for the Rams won't be any better. Having Green behind center is not going to make the line start blocking better or receivers not name Torry start getting seperation from defenders. Furthermore, the aged and brittle (knocked out of the last two seasons) Green is very unlikely to survive behind the Rams revolving-door blocking scheme.
This move does not change my opinion of the Rams skill position players at all. I would say that Green could be used as a bye-week fill-in, but even that is risky, because he has a great chance of getting knocked out in the first quarter. Anyway, he goes on my waiver wire list.
This move is not without irony. If you remember, Green was the starter in 1999 until a pre-season injury knocked him out of the lineup and allowed virtual unknown Kurt Warner to take the reigns of the greatest show on turf. If not for that injury, Green could have won an MVP or two under the Mike Martz system with Marshall Faulk, Issac Bruce, and Torry Holt in their primes. (Note: Green did start a few games for the Rams in 2000, when Warner was injured).
With the demotion of Bulger, Green finally gets the starting gig he missed out on, though with considerably less talent around him. The results for the Rams won't be any better. Having Green behind center is not going to make the line start blocking better or receivers not name Torry start getting seperation from defenders. Furthermore, the aged and brittle (knocked out of the last two seasons) Green is very unlikely to survive behind the Rams revolving-door blocking scheme.
This move does not change my opinion of the Rams skill position players at all. I would say that Green could be used as a bye-week fill-in, but even that is risky, because he has a great chance of getting knocked out in the first quarter. Anyway, he goes on my waiver wire list.
Willie Parker out for Week 4
Willie Parker will miss week 4, and possibly more, with a sprained a knee. Starting in his place will be Rashard Mendenhall, who has been a disappointment so far in his rookie year, due to lack of use.
All that changes this week, as Mendenhall should get the majority of the work, with some spot relief by Mewelde Moore. Since Mendenhall is owned in 74% of leagues, it does not seem right to put him on my waiver wire list (I think about 67% is my cut-off), but if you are in one of the leagues where he is available, grab him.
The unfortunate part is that Mendenhall is facing a tough Ravens defense, but he is definately worth starting as a RB2 in most leagues.
I think FWP will regain the starting position when he gets back, but in the meantime, Mendenhall might carve out the role everyone expected him to have at the start of the season.
All that changes this week, as Mendenhall should get the majority of the work, with some spot relief by Mewelde Moore. Since Mendenhall is owned in 74% of leagues, it does not seem right to put him on my waiver wire list (I think about 67% is my cut-off), but if you are in one of the leagues where he is available, grab him.
The unfortunate part is that Mendenhall is facing a tough Ravens defense, but he is definately worth starting as a RB2 in most leagues.
I think FWP will regain the starting position when he gets back, but in the meantime, Mendenhall might carve out the role everyone expected him to have at the start of the season.
Monday, September 22, 2008
New York Jets - San Diego Game Notes
Phillip Rivers (19 of 25 from 250 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) is starting to come into his own - along with Jason Campbell, he is an early candidate to be 2009's version of Jay Cutler. Of course, if the offense improves as Ladanian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates heal completely, he might not sneak up on anybody.
Tampa Bay - Chicago Game Notes
Brandon Lloyd jumped out with a big day (6 catches for 124 yards and a TD) . He was targeted 10 times on 34 passes, so it appears that he has emerged as the #1 receiver in Chicago. Devin Hester was out, but I don't see him cutting into Lloyd's time much. Still, don't expect this type of output from any Bears receiver on a consistent basis.
Warrick Dunn (5 carries for 31 yards) and Earnest Graham (12 carries for 16 yards) were forgotten in the Buc's pass-crazy day, but it does not look like Graham will repeat the kind of year he had last season.
Antonio Bryant (10 catches for 138 yards) should have a chance to continue to get good numbers while filling in for Galloway, which looks like it will last at least another week. He has made our waiver wire list.
Warrick Dunn (5 carries for 31 yards) and Earnest Graham (12 carries for 16 yards) were forgotten in the Buc's pass-crazy day, but it does not look like Graham will repeat the kind of year he had last season.
Antonio Bryant (10 catches for 138 yards) should have a chance to continue to get good numbers while filling in for Galloway, which looks like it will last at least another week. He has made our waiver wire list.
Carolina - Minnesota Game Notes
Replacing Tarvaris Jackson with Gus Frerote had the intended effect - the Vikings connected on a 48 yard pass to Bernard Berrian and a 34 yard touchdown to Visanthe Shiancoe. Expect Sidney Rice's number to go up when he returns, which is expected to be this week. He is on our updated Waiver Wire list.
Pittsburgh - Philadelphia Game Notes
Donavon McNabb's numbers were down after the crazy night in Dallas. He now has a sternum injury and has lost a weapon in Westbrook for at least a game, so his numbers may not be elite again until he regains his health.
Corell Buckhalter (10 carries for 43 yards; 6 catches for 44 yards and a TD), did a good Westbrook imitation while he was out - he should be a solid fill-in until Westbrook comes back.
Roesthlisberger got pummeled and left late in the game with a hand injury. Even if he is OK for next week, he is sure to continue to get blasted behind the now-porous Steelers offensive line and will remain an injury risk. Big Ben's owners need to look at Byron Leftwich as insurance.
Willie Parker (13 carries for 20 yards) had a bad day, but Rashard Mendenhall go no carries and only 1 catch, showing that FWP is still an every-down back in Pittsburgh.
Corell Buckhalter (10 carries for 43 yards; 6 catches for 44 yards and a TD), did a good Westbrook imitation while he was out - he should be a solid fill-in until Westbrook comes back.
Roesthlisberger got pummeled and left late in the game with a hand injury. Even if he is OK for next week, he is sure to continue to get blasted behind the now-porous Steelers offensive line and will remain an injury risk. Big Ben's owners need to look at Byron Leftwich as insurance.
Willie Parker (13 carries for 20 yards) had a bad day, but Rashard Mendenhall go no carries and only 1 catch, showing that FWP is still an every-down back in Pittsburgh.
Miami - New England Game Notes
Matt Cassel looked a lot like Tavaris Jackson - unable to complete a pass down the field. He averaged 6.9 yards per completion. It is hard to believe that the Patriots will allow this to go on all season, but they don't have any other options that look any better right now.
Randy Moss has been held to 47 total yards the last two weeks. He alligator-armed at least one ball on Sunday, and there are already rumours that he is not going all out.
Ronnie Brown (17 carries for 113 yards, 4 TDs) got all the touchdowns and the accolades, but Ricky Williams (16 carries for 98 yards) still got an almost even split of the carries. Expect this time share to continue, and either one will only be startable against the poor defenses.
Randy Moss has been held to 47 total yards the last two weeks. He alligator-armed at least one ball on Sunday, and there are already rumours that he is not going all out.
Ronnie Brown (17 carries for 113 yards, 4 TDs) got all the touchdowns and the accolades, but Ricky Williams (16 carries for 98 yards) still got an almost even split of the carries. Expect this time share to continue, and either one will only be startable against the poor defenses.
Kansas City - Atlanta Game Notes
Matt Ryan (12 of 18, 192 yards, 1 TD, no INTS) plays well when he is not asked to carry the team - he could be a very good one a few years down the road.
Roddy White (5 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD) had his first big day and appears to be developing a rapport with Ryan.
Tyler Thigpen is just plain awful. He shows no chance of ever being any good. Pigpen from the old Peanuts comic strip would be a better choice.
Larry Johnson (24 carries for 121 yards and a TD) had an encouraging day, even if you take away his 48 yard run.
Roddy White (5 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD) had his first big day and appears to be developing a rapport with Ryan.
Tyler Thigpen is just plain awful. He shows no chance of ever being any good. Pigpen from the old Peanuts comic strip would be a better choice.
Larry Johnson (24 carries for 121 yards and a TD) had an encouraging day, even if you take away his 48 yard run.
Houston - Tennessee Game Notes
Matt Schaub (17 of 37, 188 yards, no TDs, 3 INTs) is looking bad against 2 very good defenses, and now he has to face Jacksonville. Things should get better, but he may have developed a confidence problem now. Also, every time he gets knocked to the ground, he looks like he is not going to get up - I expect an injury or replacment due to ineffectiveness soon - all Schaub owners must also own Rosenfels or have a better plan B.
Steve Slaton (18 carries for 116 yards and a TD) was the Texans' lone bright spot, and must be owned in all leagues.
Chis Johnson and LenDale White are splitting carries (16 each), with White getting the goal line work. White still shakes his tummy like a bowl full of jelly after he scores - it is hard to believe he will have much longevity, but he will probably vulture TDs from Johnson all year long, even if Johnson starts getting a larger portion of the carries.
Steve Slaton (18 carries for 116 yards and a TD) was the Texans' lone bright spot, and must be owned in all leagues.
Chis Johnson and LenDale White are splitting carries (16 each), with White getting the goal line work. White still shakes his tummy like a bowl full of jelly after he scores - it is hard to believe he will have much longevity, but he will probably vulture TDs from Johnson all year long, even if Johnson starts getting a larger portion of the carries.
Cincinnati - New York Giants Game Notes
Carson Palmer (27-39-286, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had his first good day of the season against a good Giants defense, so his owners can breath a little easier now. It is obvious that he is looking to TJ Housmanzadeh as his #1 receiver.
Antonio Chatman (6 catches for 70 yards) won't repeat those numbers, especially with Chris Henry due back in week 5.
Chris Perry (20 carries for 74 yards, 1 TD), is still slogging it out with every down carries. He should have his best game of the year this week against Cleveland - other than that, the Bengals schedule is brutal in terms of run defenses faced.
Antonio Chatman (6 catches for 70 yards) won't repeat those numbers, especially with Chris Henry due back in week 5.
Chris Perry (20 carries for 74 yards, 1 TD), is still slogging it out with every down carries. He should have his best game of the year this week against Cleveland - other than that, the Bengals schedule is brutal in terms of run defenses faced.
Oakland - Buffalo Game Notes
Fred Jackson had only 1 catch to Marshawn Lynch's 4 - so much for Lynch losing passing-game work to Jackson.
Jamarcus Russell (9 of 19 for 156 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) finally had respectable looking numbers, but 84 of those yards came on a slant play to Jonnie Lee Higgins. Other than that, he was 8-18 for 72 yards, barely 4 yards per attempt.
Jamarcus Russell (9 of 19 for 156 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) finally had respectable looking numbers, but 84 of those yards came on a slant play to Jonnie Lee Higgins. Other than that, he was 8-18 for 72 yards, barely 4 yards per attempt.
Jacksonville - Indianapolis Game Notes
Manning still does not look like Peyton Manning, and after this week, lack of work in the pre-season is not an excuse. We still expect him to be fine.
The Jacksonville rushing game finally came around, with Fred Taylor rushing 26 times for 120 yards and MJD running 19 times for 107 yards and a touchdown. The Colts run defense look like it has reverted to 2006 regular season form without Bob Sanders, who will be out another 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain. Of course, they didn't look real great in the first two games with Sanders, either.
The Jacksonville rushing game finally came around, with Fred Taylor rushing 26 times for 120 yards and MJD running 19 times for 107 yards and a touchdown. The Colts run defense look like it has reverted to 2006 regular season form without Bob Sanders, who will be out another 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain. Of course, they didn't look real great in the first two games with Sanders, either.
Dallas - Green Bay Game Notes
Felix Jones is a definite weapon, and may start giving Barber more rest in the future. His talent is undeniable, but his scoring will be too inconsistent to rely upon from week to week.
Ryan Grant (13 carries) is taking over full-time duty from Brandon Jackson (3 carries), despite a lack of production to date. The Packers seem intent on having him return to late 2007 form.
Ryan Grant (13 carries) is taking over full-time duty from Brandon Jackson (3 carries), despite a lack of production to date. The Packers seem intent on having him return to late 2007 form.
Cleveland - Baltimore Game Notes
Le'Ron McClain is still getting plenty of carries (17), although McGahee (15) missed time with an eye injury on Sunday. Rice (5 carries) is clearly 3rd in the pecking order, for now.
Braylon Edwards and Derek Anderson are both still not in sync. If they can't get things going against the Bengals this week, Anderson is likely to lose his job. I projected the Browns to come back to earth this year, but I did not expect them to burn up on re-entry.
Braylon Edwards and Derek Anderson are both still not in sync. If they can't get things going against the Bengals this week, Anderson is likely to lose his job. I projected the Browns to come back to earth this year, but I did not expect them to burn up on re-entry.
Updated Waiver Wire Picks
After having a chance to sleep on it and reading some other sites' thoughts on waiver wire pickups, here is my updated list for the week:
Steve Slaton (owned in 56% of leagues) - Looks to be the #1 back in Houston, and seems to have the talent to stay there. Could still lose some goal-line carries to Chris Taylor, but should continue to put up good yardage. Shameless self-promotion: he was on my pre-season sleeper list, so you would have already grabbed him if you were paying attention.
JT O'Sullivan (owned in 45% of leagues) - Last week's big free agent, but since he is still owned by less than 50% of the leagues, I can put him here again. He did nothing against Detriot to make me think he won't continue to put up good numbers all year in Mike Martz's system.
Bobby Engram (owned in 40% of leagues) - Coming back from injury, and will go directly into the starting lineup in Seattle after a bye week. Especially valuable in PPR leagues.
Rudi Johnson (owned in 63% of leagues) - Now we know that Kevin Smith was not hurt - the Lions coaches were just riding the hot hand. Johnson could continue to be the hot hand until the inevitable injury.
Leron McClain (owned in 6% of leagues) - His carries were increased after an eye injury to McGahee, but he was getting a fair share of carries before. It looks like he is the #2 back in Baltimore and should get 10-15 carries a game, plus the goal-line work.
Deion Branch (owned in 20% of leagues) - Expected to start in week 5 for the Seahawks.
Sidney Rice (owned in 46% of leagues) - Coming back from an injury, and with a QB that can actually put the ball down field, Rice could put up some nice numbers this year.
Brian Greise (owned in 7% of leagues) - No, he won't throw 67 passes every week, and he needed that many to get just over 400 yards. That equates to 200 yards passing with a normal workload, which is what you should expect from Greise. Still, he is worth owning as a back-up.
Jeremy Stevens (owned in 1% of leagues) - I can't stand this guy personally, but he looked good down the stretch yesterday. He should start to edge out Alex Smith for catches, and would make a good bye-week fill-in.
Correll Buckhalter (owned in 6% of leagues) - It looks like Westbrook will probably miss only one game, and Buckhalter would make a good bye-week fill-in if needed. He is a must-have for Westbrook owners, not nearly as valuable to anybody else.
Antonio Bryant (owned in 10% of leagues) - He should continue to put up good numbers while Joey Galloway is out, which makes him a good bye week fill-in for this week. Long term potential is not very high.
These guys are mentioned by others, but I don't think they have much value:
Brady Quinn (owned in 8% of leagues) - What makes people think he will do any better than Anderson? Cleveland is a team with a lot of holes that overacheived last year, and is crashing back to earth. There is no guarentee that Quinn will start (the Browns play the Bengals this week, so Anderson might be able to "right the ship"), and if he does, I don't see a first-year starter coming in and making an immediate impact. Braylon Edwards will drop his balls just the same as with Anderson. If you own Anderson and have no other decent QBs, you might want to think Quinn (but think O'Sullivan first). If you don't have Anderson as a handcuff, don't waste a roster spot on Quinn.
Trent Green (owned in 1% of leagues) - The Ram's new starter could be valuable on a match-up basis, but he does not really have a good matchup until week 9 (Arizona). He will be injured before then.
Billy McMullen (owned in 1% of leagues) - With Engram and Branch coming back, his days in the sun are over.
Steve Slaton (owned in 56% of leagues) - Looks to be the #1 back in Houston, and seems to have the talent to stay there. Could still lose some goal-line carries to Chris Taylor, but should continue to put up good yardage. Shameless self-promotion: he was on my pre-season sleeper list, so you would have already grabbed him if you were paying attention.
JT O'Sullivan (owned in 45% of leagues) - Last week's big free agent, but since he is still owned by less than 50% of the leagues, I can put him here again. He did nothing against Detriot to make me think he won't continue to put up good numbers all year in Mike Martz's system.
Bobby Engram (owned in 40% of leagues) - Coming back from injury, and will go directly into the starting lineup in Seattle after a bye week. Especially valuable in PPR leagues.
Rudi Johnson (owned in 63% of leagues) - Now we know that Kevin Smith was not hurt - the Lions coaches were just riding the hot hand. Johnson could continue to be the hot hand until the inevitable injury.
Leron McClain (owned in 6% of leagues) - His carries were increased after an eye injury to McGahee, but he was getting a fair share of carries before. It looks like he is the #2 back in Baltimore and should get 10-15 carries a game, plus the goal-line work.
Deion Branch (owned in 20% of leagues) - Expected to start in week 5 for the Seahawks.
Sidney Rice (owned in 46% of leagues) - Coming back from an injury, and with a QB that can actually put the ball down field, Rice could put up some nice numbers this year.
Brian Greise (owned in 7% of leagues) - No, he won't throw 67 passes every week, and he needed that many to get just over 400 yards. That equates to 200 yards passing with a normal workload, which is what you should expect from Greise. Still, he is worth owning as a back-up.
Jeremy Stevens (owned in 1% of leagues) - I can't stand this guy personally, but he looked good down the stretch yesterday. He should start to edge out Alex Smith for catches, and would make a good bye-week fill-in.
Correll Buckhalter (owned in 6% of leagues) - It looks like Westbrook will probably miss only one game, and Buckhalter would make a good bye-week fill-in if needed. He is a must-have for Westbrook owners, not nearly as valuable to anybody else.
Antonio Bryant (owned in 10% of leagues) - He should continue to put up good numbers while Joey Galloway is out, which makes him a good bye week fill-in for this week. Long term potential is not very high.
These guys are mentioned by others, but I don't think they have much value:
Brady Quinn (owned in 8% of leagues) - What makes people think he will do any better than Anderson? Cleveland is a team with a lot of holes that overacheived last year, and is crashing back to earth. There is no guarentee that Quinn will start (the Browns play the Bengals this week, so Anderson might be able to "right the ship"), and if he does, I don't see a first-year starter coming in and making an immediate impact. Braylon Edwards will drop his balls just the same as with Anderson. If you own Anderson and have no other decent QBs, you might want to think Quinn (but think O'Sullivan first). If you don't have Anderson as a handcuff, don't waste a roster spot on Quinn.
Trent Green (owned in 1% of leagues) - The Ram's new starter could be valuable on a match-up basis, but he does not really have a good matchup until week 9 (Arizona). He will be injured before then.
Billy McMullen (owned in 1% of leagues) - With Engram and Branch coming back, his days in the sun are over.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Detroit - San Fransisco Game Notes
Mike Martz has found a way to combine an effective passing attack (over 9 yards per attempt) with plenty of Frank Gore (31 touches, 162 total yards, and a touchdown). Those that took Gore early in their drafts are very happy right now, and should continue to be pleased.
JT O'Sullivan is doing an early Tom Brady impression - spreading the ball around with no obvious favorite target, keeping all his receivers at a low fantasy value despite a strong passing game.
Rudi Johnson took over for Kevin Smith after 2 drives, in what was appearently a coaches decision. After the rookie Smith was bitching about his workload last week, he might find an all new workload behind the surprisingly effective Johnson.
JT O'Sullivan is doing an early Tom Brady impression - spreading the ball around with no obvious favorite target, keeping all his receivers at a low fantasy value despite a strong passing game.
Rudi Johnson took over for Kevin Smith after 2 drives, in what was appearently a coaches decision. After the rookie Smith was bitching about his workload last week, he might find an all new workload behind the surprisingly effective Johnson.
St Louis - Seattle Game Notes
Julius Jones (22 carries for 140 yards) looked great against an admittedly bad defense, but looks to have found something he hasn't had the last few years. He should not lose too many carries with the return of Maurice Morris, but the Seahawks will run less from here on out as they will be getting Bobby Engram and Dieon Branch back, and his numbers will go down as the Seahawks face tougher run defenses. This might be the time to sell high on Jones if possible.
As mentioned in another post, Engram and Branch make good waiver pick-ups for this week, as nobody has established themselves as a threat to take away any catches from Seattle's top 2 receivers.
As mentioned in another post, Engram and Branch make good waiver pick-ups for this week, as nobody has established themselves as a threat to take away any catches from Seattle's top 2 receivers.
New Orleans - Denver Game Notes
The Denver RB trio continues to cancel each other out, making none of them a viable fantasy option.
Drew Brees (39 of 48 for 421 yards) shows that he will still are it more than anyone, in case you were wondering. He even outperformed FFV darling Jay Cutler fantasy-wise.
Lance Moore (7 catches for 78 yards) took up the slack for the injured Marquez Colsten, but don't expect this trend to continue. It could be a different receiver every week.
Drew Brees (39 of 48 for 421 yards) shows that he will still are it more than anyone, in case you were wondering. He even outperformed FFV darling Jay Cutler fantasy-wise.
Lance Moore (7 catches for 78 yards) took up the slack for the injured Marquez Colsten, but don't expect this trend to continue. It could be a different receiver every week.
Arizona - Washington Game Notes
Jason Campbell (22 of 30, 193 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs) is starting to look comfortable in Jim Zorn's offense. Now in his third year as a starter, he could be a candidate to break out in 2009.
His numbers could have been better, but e had a long touchdown to Devin Thomas called back due to a penalty away from the play.
I would not be surprised to see him put up Hasselbeck-type numbers next year. Keep an eye on his development.
His numbers could have been better, but e had a long touchdown to Devin Thomas called back due to a penalty away from the play.
I would not be surprised to see him put up Hasselbeck-type numbers next year. Keep an eye on his development.
Dont forget about Branch, Engram
As I was studying the results of the Seahawks-Rams game, I realized that their passing game will pick up appreciably once they get Bobby Engram and Dieon Branch back. Engram is owned in about 40% of leagues, and Branch is owned in about 20% of leagues, so chances are at least one of them is available in your league. Engram is the more desirable of the two, but either one should be owned. If you have a bum on your roster that you can give up on, picking up either one of these guys and carrying them through the Seahawks week 4 bye would be a nice move.
Waiver Wire Picks
The best looking waiver wire options, based on Today's action:
Correll Buckhalter (owned in 6% of leagues) - When Brian Westbrook went down with an injury, Buckhalter got the majority of time in the Eagle's backfield and did his best Brian Westbrook imitation, getting 43 yards on 10 carries and 44 yards and a touchdown on 6 catches. Westbrook has a sprained ankle, and an MRI is due tomorrow. Buckhalter should be on the plus side of a split with Lorenzo Booker if Westbrook misses any time. Especially if McNabb is nursing a shoulder injury, the Eagles should lean on their backs.
Steve Slaton (owned in 56% of leagues) - The lone bright spot in the Texans' loss to the Titans was Slaton, who started, but was expected to split time with Chris Taylor. Slaton wound up with 18 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown, along with 4 receptions for 8 yards. Taylor got only 6 carries for 15 yards, so Slaton may have established himself as an every-down back. He is worth owning in any league.
Rudi Johnson (owned in 63% of leagues) - After starting today's game, Kevin Smith was inexplicably absent after the second drive and Johnson got all the snaps. He responded with 83 yards on 14 carries and 48 yards and a touchdown on 3 catches. It is not clear if Smith is hurt or in the doghouse, but Johnson has definately earned a larger portion of the carries. Of course, it seems unlikely that Johnson will last the season without getting hurt, but he at least makes a good fantasy back up for now.
Correll Buckhalter (owned in 6% of leagues) - When Brian Westbrook went down with an injury, Buckhalter got the majority of time in the Eagle's backfield and did his best Brian Westbrook imitation, getting 43 yards on 10 carries and 44 yards and a touchdown on 6 catches. Westbrook has a sprained ankle, and an MRI is due tomorrow. Buckhalter should be on the plus side of a split with Lorenzo Booker if Westbrook misses any time. Especially if McNabb is nursing a shoulder injury, the Eagles should lean on their backs.
Steve Slaton (owned in 56% of leagues) - The lone bright spot in the Texans' loss to the Titans was Slaton, who started, but was expected to split time with Chris Taylor. Slaton wound up with 18 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown, along with 4 receptions for 8 yards. Taylor got only 6 carries for 15 yards, so Slaton may have established himself as an every-down back. He is worth owning in any league.
Rudi Johnson (owned in 63% of leagues) - After starting today's game, Kevin Smith was inexplicably absent after the second drive and Johnson got all the snaps. He responded with 83 yards on 14 carries and 48 yards and a touchdown on 3 catches. It is not clear if Smith is hurt or in the doghouse, but Johnson has definately earned a larger portion of the carries. Of course, it seems unlikely that Johnson will last the season without getting hurt, but he at least makes a good fantasy back up for now.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Lay off the Texans this Weekend
The Houston Texans hit the field this Sunday for the first time since Hurricane Ike ravaged Houston.
Its not always easy to predict what a team will do the first time out after such an event (the Saints won their first game after Katrina - in what turned out to be a horrible season), but I have a feeling that the Texans will be distracted.
Most of these guys live in Houston and have their families there, meaning they are dealing with damage to homes, loss of power, and concern about their families in the recovery effort. As an example, the Houston Astros lost their first six games after Ike by a combined score of 38-5. One game was a no-hitter, another a one-hitter, and they were not competitive in any of the games. With the Texans going against the Titans and their strong defense this week, I just don't see Schaub and company making much impact.
In my own league, I'm pulling Schaub for Cassel this week, and am even benching Andre Johnson (for Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson). If I didn't have stud receivers, I would have started Johnson, but I don't think any other Texans offensive players are worth a risk this weekend.
Its not always easy to predict what a team will do the first time out after such an event (the Saints won their first game after Katrina - in what turned out to be a horrible season), but I have a feeling that the Texans will be distracted.
Most of these guys live in Houston and have their families there, meaning they are dealing with damage to homes, loss of power, and concern about their families in the recovery effort. As an example, the Houston Astros lost their first six games after Ike by a combined score of 38-5. One game was a no-hitter, another a one-hitter, and they were not competitive in any of the games. With the Texans going against the Titans and their strong defense this week, I just don't see Schaub and company making much impact.
In my own league, I'm pulling Schaub for Cassel this week, and am even benching Andre Johnson (for Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson). If I didn't have stud receivers, I would have started Johnson, but I don't think any other Texans offensive players are worth a risk this weekend.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Week 2 Quick Hits
I was wrong about Wes Welker being greatly affected by the loss of Tom Brady. It looks like they are using short passes to him in order to protect Cassel, and they should keep doing it, as Belicheck points out in this article.
Don't expect much in terms of fantasy value from Gus Frerote, but he should be somewhat better than Jackson at passing against stacked defensive lines. Maybe Sidney Rice will see a decent bump in value - but he is hurting right now and may not see much playing time this weekend. In fact, with Bernard Berrian also hurting, Frerote doesn't have much to throw to in his first start.
Don't expect much in terms of fantasy value from Gus Frerote, but he should be somewhat better than Jackson at passing against stacked defensive lines. Maybe Sidney Rice will see a decent bump in value - but he is hurting right now and may not see much playing time this weekend. In fact, with Bernard Berrian also hurting, Frerote doesn't have much to throw to in his first start.
A Closer look at JT O'Sullivan
Sometimes, it is hard to get a first impression out of your head. Sometimes, it is hard to admit when you are wrong.
That is why I missed out on realizing what a bargain JT O'Sullivan was last week (before the week 2 game). When he became the starter, I wrote a few times that "you don't want him." This week, he is the hot waiver wire commodity. We could have used our friend Otto to figure this out a week ago:
Opportunity - This is what changed once Alex Smith went on the disabled list, and we should have caught it. In all our pre-season projections, I assumed that the 49ers would eventually turn back to Smith, but that obviously won't happen now. So barring injury, O'Sullivan would hold the job all year.
Teammates/System - Other than Frank Gore, O'Sullivan does not have teammates that will help him out a whole lot. The system is another story. Mike Martz's offensive scheme did a lot for unknowns Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger, and made the decent Jon Kitna put up very good numbers. O'Sullivan should benefit from the system as well.
Talent - This is where O'Sullivan is very questionable, but his nearly 10 yards per attempt average through two games shows that he is not too shabby.
Opponents - Of the 16 opponents on the 49er's schedule, 12 of them have average or worse passing yardage defenses. Two of the worst (Detriot and New Orleans) are in the 49er's next two games.
So, in hindsight, we should have expected O'Sullivan to be a good pick-up as soon as Smith went on the injured reserve. Going forward, I expect O'Sullivan to be startable in about half of his remaining games.
That is why I missed out on realizing what a bargain JT O'Sullivan was last week (before the week 2 game). When he became the starter, I wrote a few times that "you don't want him." This week, he is the hot waiver wire commodity. We could have used our friend Otto to figure this out a week ago:
Opportunity - This is what changed once Alex Smith went on the disabled list, and we should have caught it. In all our pre-season projections, I assumed that the 49ers would eventually turn back to Smith, but that obviously won't happen now. So barring injury, O'Sullivan would hold the job all year.
Teammates/System - Other than Frank Gore, O'Sullivan does not have teammates that will help him out a whole lot. The system is another story. Mike Martz's offensive scheme did a lot for unknowns Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger, and made the decent Jon Kitna put up very good numbers. O'Sullivan should benefit from the system as well.
Talent - This is where O'Sullivan is very questionable, but his nearly 10 yards per attempt average through two games shows that he is not too shabby.
Opponents - Of the 16 opponents on the 49er's schedule, 12 of them have average or worse passing yardage defenses. Two of the worst (Detriot and New Orleans) are in the 49er's next two games.
So, in hindsight, we should have expected O'Sullivan to be a good pick-up as soon as Smith went on the injured reserve. Going forward, I expect O'Sullivan to be startable in about half of his remaining games.
Back in Action
My apologies for not posting much this week, but with Hurricanes, travel, broken internet connections in hotels, and even Blogger problems, I have not been able to keep the content a the volume that I would like. Rest assured, that will not happen next week.
Going over my weekly routine, I have decided to make a few changes. I will try to get a weekly waiver advice column posted Sunday night, for those of you that are in leagues where you can pick up free agents immediately. This will slow down the game notes columns, but I will still try to get all these done by the end of the day Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be for in-depth looks at statistical trends and analysis, and Friday will be a day for "quick hits" of anything that I may have missed during the week. Saturdays I will leave open for any late-breaking news that may have an impact on Sunday's games.
Going over my weekly routine, I have decided to make a few changes. I will try to get a weekly waiver advice column posted Sunday night, for those of you that are in leagues where you can pick up free agents immediately. This will slow down the game notes columns, but I will still try to get all these done by the end of the day Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be for in-depth looks at statistical trends and analysis, and Friday will be a day for "quick hits" of anything that I may have missed during the week. Saturdays I will leave open for any late-breaking news that may have an impact on Sunday's games.
My Week on the Waiver Wire
Well, if you are following my team, you know I feel I am strong everywhere but QB. I picked up Matt Cassel off the waiver wire last week, and so now I have Cassel, Matt Schaub, and Sage Rosenfels.
After Cassel's so-so performance last week, I still feel like I need to add to my QB corps. So I will put in a claim for everybody's darling this week, JT O'Sullivan. I will bid $21 of my remaining $68 free-agent budget.
After Cassel's so-so performance last week, I still feel like I need to add to my QB corps. So I will put in a claim for everybody's darling this week, JT O'Sullivan. I will bid $21 of my remaining $68 free-agent budget.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
San Francisco - Seattle Game Notes
Matt Hasselbeck (18 of 36 for 189 yards, 2 INTs) should improve after week 5, when he gets Branch and Engram back. He might be available for cheap right now, but should be a solid QB2 by mid-season.
Julius Jones (26 carries for 127 yards and 1 TD) was better than expected. This could help him retain the starting spot when Maurice Morris returns. Remember, the 49ers run defense is not very good, but this week's opponents (Rams) are even worse. After a bye week in week 4, the Seahawks face the Giants, Packers, and Bucs; so ride Jones for one more game, then see if you can sell high.
Isaac Bruce (4 catches for 153 yards) showed that rumours of his death were greatly exageratted. He could continue to have occasional days like this in Mike Martz's offense.
JT O'Sullivan has been incredibly solid, averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt over the first two weeks.
Julius Jones (26 carries for 127 yards and 1 TD) was better than expected. This could help him retain the starting spot when Maurice Morris returns. Remember, the 49ers run defense is not very good, but this week's opponents (Rams) are even worse. After a bye week in week 4, the Seahawks face the Giants, Packers, and Bucs; so ride Jones for one more game, then see if you can sell high.
Isaac Bruce (4 catches for 153 yards) showed that rumours of his death were greatly exageratted. He could continue to have occasional days like this in Mike Martz's offense.
JT O'Sullivan has been incredibly solid, averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt over the first two weeks.
Indianapolis - Minnesota Game Notes
After looking out of sync in week 1, the Colts offense struggled in the first half of this game, getting shut out. The passing game finally came around in the second half, and should continue to improve as Peyton Manning gets in sync with his receivers after missing the entire preseason.
As many expected, Anthony Gonzalez (9 catches for 137 yards) benefited from the absence of Dallas Clark. With Clark back in the lineup this week, don't expect a repeat performance.
Has Marvin Harrison (1 catch for 16 yards) lost a step? After a strong week one against the Bears, it looks like Harrison will be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, and it will be tough to predict when he will have has strong weeks. Reggie Wayne is the unquestioned #1 receiver on this team now.
As many expected, Anthony Gonzalez (9 catches for 137 yards) benefited from the absence of Dallas Clark. With Clark back in the lineup this week, don't expect a repeat performance.
Has Marvin Harrison (1 catch for 16 yards) lost a step? After a strong week one against the Bears, it looks like Harrison will be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, and it will be tough to predict when he will have has strong weeks. Reggie Wayne is the unquestioned #1 receiver on this team now.
Tennessee - Cincinnati Game Notes
The wind and the weather were factors in Carson Palmer's poor day, but the Bengals offense has had trouble since the pre-season. As Chad Johnson points out, the problem starts with the offensive line. Palmer took a beating through the pre-season, and that has continued to date. This looks like it could be a long season for the Bengals starters.
Chris Perry not only has had pedestrian numbers (2.7 yards per carry), but also added two fumbles in this game. Expect Kenny Watson and Dede Dorsey to start cuting into his touches soon.
Yes, Chris Johnson is talented, but LenDale White will still get goal line carries. Johnson might start getting more touches between the 20's, though.
Chris Perry not only has had pedestrian numbers (2.7 yards per carry), but also added two fumbles in this game. Expect Kenny Watson and Dede Dorsey to start cuting into his touches soon.
Yes, Chris Johnson is talented, but LenDale White will still get goal line carries. Johnson might start getting more touches between the 20's, though.
Chicago - Carolina Game Notes
OK, I'm back in town so I will try to catch up on these posts. Hopefully, I will at least finish the game notes today and start getting some interesting content for the weekend up tomorrow.
Jonathon Stewart (14 carries for 77 yards) outperformed DeAngelo Williams (11-31), and saw nearly all the action in the second half. Williams will remain the starter for now, but it seems only a matter of time until Stewart gets a bigger piece of the pie.
Last week's hero Dante Rosario became an afterthought in the Carolina offense, with only 1 catch for 6 yards.
Bears tight end Greg Olsen had 2 catches and 2 fumbles; not a good way to get an increased workload.
Jonathon Stewart (14 carries for 77 yards) outperformed DeAngelo Williams (11-31), and saw nearly all the action in the second half. Williams will remain the starter for now, but it seems only a matter of time until Stewart gets a bigger piece of the pie.
Last week's hero Dante Rosario became an afterthought in the Carolina offense, with only 1 catch for 6 yards.
Bears tight end Greg Olsen had 2 catches and 2 fumbles; not a good way to get an increased workload.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Buffalo - Jacksonville Game Notes
David Garrard already has equaled his interception total from last year (3), proving that things tend to regress towards the mean.
Is Matt Jones (5 catches for 50 yards) finally becoming relevant? See if he continues to get looks after Jerry Porter returns from injury.
Fred Jackson (7 catches for 83 yards) is being used more in the passing game than Marshawn Lynch (4 catches all year), whom many (including I) thought would increase his value this year due to more passing-down work. Jackson seems to carved out a niche in the Bills offense, much to the chagrin of Lynch owners.
Is Matt Jones (5 catches for 50 yards) finally becoming relevant? See if he continues to get looks after Jerry Porter returns from injury.
Fred Jackson (7 catches for 83 yards) is being used more in the passing game than Marshawn Lynch (4 catches all year), whom many (including I) thought would increase his value this year due to more passing-down work. Jackson seems to carved out a niche in the Bills offense, much to the chagrin of Lynch owners.
New York Giants - St Louis Game Notes
Tory Holt caught 6 passes for 76 yards and a TD to prove that he is not all done yet. Expect less consistency from Holt as the Rams offense continues its struggles, but he is still worth starting nearly every week.
Randy McMichael had only 2 catches after 5 in the opener. The jury is still out on whether he will thrive in the Al Saunders scheme.
Ahmad Bradshaw finally got some carries and a couple of touchdowns, but was only used after the game was well in hand.
The Rams offense just looks out of sorts, and I don't expect things to get any better. Of course, this is the second offense that has looked awful against the Giants in two weeks, so maybe the defending champs deserve some credit.
Randy McMichael had only 2 catches after 5 in the opener. The jury is still out on whether he will thrive in the Al Saunders scheme.
Ahmad Bradshaw finally got some carries and a couple of touchdowns, but was only used after the game was well in hand.
The Rams offense just looks out of sorts, and I don't expect things to get any better. Of course, this is the second offense that has looked awful against the Giants in two weeks, so maybe the defending champs deserve some credit.
Oakland - Kansas City Game Notes
Kansas City was forced to go to their 3rd QB, Tyler Thigpen, early in this week 2 contest. Thigpen looked terrible, further limiting the value of Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. No one else in the Chiefs' passing game is worth owning.
Larry Johnson (12 carries for 22 yards) is not looking good. He is tentative and just looks slow. Looking this way against the awful Raiders run defense is particularly concerning. I think that LJ has one more year left in him, so don't totally panic yet, but this is starting to look like the begining stages of the Sean Alexander drop-off.
Jamarcus Russell (6 of 17 for 55 yards) still looks terrible and is not worth owning.
Darren McFadden (21 carries, 164 yards, TD), looked really good, with the only problem being 2 fumbles. Oh, yeah, and he is also dealing with a turf toe. While McFadden has played much better than I expected, I still do not beleive he can make it through an NFL season without getting hurt.
Speaking of injuries, the injury to Justin Fargas has opened the door for former FFV darling Michael Bush, who had 90 yards and a TD on 16 carries. I'm worried that the team tried to move him to FB, but with Fargas and McFadden hurting, he could have a shot to show us what he's got on a week-to-week basis. He hasn't played much in the last 2 years, but he definately has talent.
Larry Johnson (12 carries for 22 yards) is not looking good. He is tentative and just looks slow. Looking this way against the awful Raiders run defense is particularly concerning. I think that LJ has one more year left in him, so don't totally panic yet, but this is starting to look like the begining stages of the Sean Alexander drop-off.
Jamarcus Russell (6 of 17 for 55 yards) still looks terrible and is not worth owning.
Darren McFadden (21 carries, 164 yards, TD), looked really good, with the only problem being 2 fumbles. Oh, yeah, and he is also dealing with a turf toe. While McFadden has played much better than I expected, I still do not beleive he can make it through an NFL season without getting hurt.
Speaking of injuries, the injury to Justin Fargas has opened the door for former FFV darling Michael Bush, who had 90 yards and a TD on 16 carries. I'm worried that the team tried to move him to FB, but with Fargas and McFadden hurting, he could have a shot to show us what he's got on a week-to-week basis. He hasn't played much in the last 2 years, but he definately has talent.
Green Bay - Detriot Game Notes
First off, sorry that there have not been any posts in a while, but my real job has taken me out of town, and the hotel's wifi does not work. I will try to blog while sitting in this pub until I spill beer all over my laptop.
Aaron Rodgers looked really good, but the Lions defense may wind up doing that for a lot of people. Still, combined with his performance against the Vikings (who also do not have a great pass defense), Rodgers looks like a legitimate QB and a draft-day bargain.
Brandon Jackson (7 carries for 61 yards and a TD) may continue to steal carries from a sore-hamstrung Ryan Grant (15-20). Grant will continue to be the starter, but he is going to have to outperform Jackson before he gets 20+ touches a game again.
Calvin Johnson (6 catches for 129 yards) is the real deal. He had a total of 12 targets, so Kitna is looking for him early and often. Roy Williams (6 catches through 2 games) is getting upset, and his owners should be a little worried as well.
The Lions are still not used to rushing (12 carries). Since they figure to be behind a lot, don't count on enough touches for Kevin Smith or especially Rudi Johnson to be factors.
Aaron Rodgers looked really good, but the Lions defense may wind up doing that for a lot of people. Still, combined with his performance against the Vikings (who also do not have a great pass defense), Rodgers looks like a legitimate QB and a draft-day bargain.
Brandon Jackson (7 carries for 61 yards and a TD) may continue to steal carries from a sore-hamstrung Ryan Grant (15-20). Grant will continue to be the starter, but he is going to have to outperform Jackson before he gets 20+ touches a game again.
Calvin Johnson (6 catches for 129 yards) is the real deal. He had a total of 12 targets, so Kitna is looking for him early and often. Roy Williams (6 catches through 2 games) is getting upset, and his owners should be a little worried as well.
The Lions are still not used to rushing (12 carries). Since they figure to be behind a lot, don't count on enough touches for Kevin Smith or especially Rudi Johnson to be factors.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
New Orleans - Washington Game Notes
Jason Campbell (24 of 36 for 321 yards) had a great day after a poor outing in the first game, but don't expect the numbers to continue. Over half his yardage (164) was to Santana Moss, one of the streakiest players in the NFL. He's not going to put up those numbers all year, so neither will Campbell.
Chris Cooley calmed down some people that were worried he might not be a big part of the offense without Al Saunders with a 5-catch, 72 yard game.
The Saints are obviously intent upon not making Duece McAllister (2 carries, 10 yards) a big part of their offense.
Chris Cooley calmed down some people that were worried he might not be a big part of the offense without Al Saunders with a 5-catch, 72 yard game.
The Saints are obviously intent upon not making Duece McAllister (2 carries, 10 yards) a big part of their offense.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Texans - Ravens Officially Canceled
The Texans and Ravens game has been officially canceled. Both teams have been given a bye this week, and schedules have been juggled to play the game on September 9. So, obviously, don't start any Texans or Ravens this week (really, this should be a pay site!).
The story is that the Texans didn't want to give up a home game. Given the struggles that the Saints had a few years ago when forced to go on the road for their "home" games, this makes a lot of sense. If Reliant Stadium is not ready to go by the Texans' next home game, they will probably use Rice Stadium instead. Rice Stadium is borderline acceptable for NFL games - in fact, one of the early Super Bowls was played there.
The story is that the Texans didn't want to give up a home game. Given the struggles that the Saints had a few years ago when forced to go on the road for their "home" games, this makes a lot of sense. If Reliant Stadium is not ready to go by the Texans' next home game, they will probably use Rice Stadium instead. Rice Stadium is borderline acceptable for NFL games - in fact, one of the early Super Bowls was played there.
Texans - Ravens Game Postponed
The game between the Texans and the Ravens, which was originally scheduled for Sunday, then moved to Monday night, has now been postponed indefinitely. It is not clear right now, but the game may be moved to a neutral site or rescheduled for another week.
The reason for rescheduling the game is that 5 of the 8 panels have been blown off of Reliant Stadium in Houston. There is speculation that this may keep the Texans out of Reliant for an extending period, perhaps the entire season.
Obviously, people in Houston have a lot more to worry about over the next few days, but this could have an adverse impact on the Texans ala the Saints in 2005.
The reason for rescheduling the game is that 5 of the 8 panels have been blown off of Reliant Stadium in Houston. There is speculation that this may keep the Texans out of Reliant for an extending period, perhaps the entire season.
Obviously, people in Houston have a lot more to worry about over the next few days, but this could have an adverse impact on the Texans ala the Saints in 2005.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Quick Hits Before the Weekend
Since I now have a house full of evacuees, I may not get to post very often, if at all, this weekend. So let me put in quick-note form some of the things that I was thinking about writing over the next few days and probably won't get a chance to do:
I saw one site this week (I forget who) mention that you should "sell high" on Randy Moss this week. That is absurd. From my analysis earlier in the week, I think Moss is still the #5 WR in the league, so there is no way you will be getting value for him. If you try to trade him, your trade partner will know that you are concerned about him losing Brady and will try to get him for much less than he is worth. Right now, while people are unsure what the Patriots offense will look like, Randy Moss's value is lower than it has been since his Oakland days. How is that "selling high?" I think Moss will become Cassel's security blanket and still put up very good numbers.
Speaking of the Patriots, we need to examine the load that we expect Sammie Morris and Laurency Maroney to carry. We are projecting that the Patriots will run the ball 100 more times (6 times per game) than they would have with Brady at the helm. Who will get those carries? Without going into a lot of detail, I think it will be Morris, who becomes a legit RB3. We can do a detailed analysis next week, when we will have a game's worth of data to analyze.
With Alex Smith going on injured reserve, JT O'Sullivan now looks like the full-time starter in San Fransisco. JT should be owned in all leagues, so if he is available in yours and you don't like your QB2, take a chance on O'Sullivan.
I saw one site this week (I forget who) mention that you should "sell high" on Randy Moss this week. That is absurd. From my analysis earlier in the week, I think Moss is still the #5 WR in the league, so there is no way you will be getting value for him. If you try to trade him, your trade partner will know that you are concerned about him losing Brady and will try to get him for much less than he is worth. Right now, while people are unsure what the Patriots offense will look like, Randy Moss's value is lower than it has been since his Oakland days. How is that "selling high?" I think Moss will become Cassel's security blanket and still put up very good numbers.
Speaking of the Patriots, we need to examine the load that we expect Sammie Morris and Laurency Maroney to carry. We are projecting that the Patriots will run the ball 100 more times (6 times per game) than they would have with Brady at the helm. Who will get those carries? Without going into a lot of detail, I think it will be Morris, who becomes a legit RB3. We can do a detailed analysis next week, when we will have a game's worth of data to analyze.
With Alex Smith going on injured reserve, JT O'Sullivan now looks like the full-time starter in San Fransisco. JT should be owned in all leagues, so if he is available in yours and you don't like your QB2, take a chance on O'Sullivan.
Jaguars Injuries Mounting
Earlier in the week, I mentioned that they Jaguar's paltry running game against the Titans was no cause for concern, because they were, after all, facing one of the best run defenses in the NFL. However, since then the Jaguars have put both of their starting guards, Vince Manuwai and Maurice Williams, on season-ending injured reserve. So, there is some cause for concern about the status of both Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.
Over their next four games, the Jags face Buffalo, Indianapolis, Houston, and Pittsburgh. Their running game may not look very good at that point, but then they face Denver, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Detroit in a four-game stretch that should heal the running game. MJD is still an every-week start at this point, but you will have to see if he is still able to pound out inside yards with two new gaurds on the offensive line. Fred Taylor may be sitting more often than not until the Jaguars face the easy portion of their schedule.
Over their next four games, the Jags face Buffalo, Indianapolis, Houston, and Pittsburgh. Their running game may not look very good at that point, but then they face Denver, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Detroit in a four-game stretch that should heal the running game. MJD is still an every-week start at this point, but you will have to see if he is still able to pound out inside yards with two new gaurds on the offensive line. Fred Taylor may be sitting more often than not until the Jaguars face the easy portion of their schedule.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Examining the Texans' Backfield
Sorry for the late and relatively short post, but I have been getting my house ready all evening for Hurricane Ike evacuees. Let's hope that everyone remains safe over the next few days.
Speaking of Ike, he has forced the Texans-Ravens game to Monday night. And, speaking of the Texans, Ahman Green has gone down with the inevitable injury (after a whopping 5 carries), and Steve Slaton will be starting in week 2, and possibly longer than that. Who predicted that Slaton would be the starter by halftime of week 1? Oh, yeah, that was me. Hope you picked him late in your draft as directed.
Slaton looks to be used like a poor man's Reggie Bush (and yes, I sense the irony of him playing for Houston). He'll use his speed to get to the outside, and should be dangerous catching the ball, but I don't see him running much between the tackles.
That job will go to Chris Taylor. Taylor has 28 career rushes, all of them in 2006, but the Texans' coaches love him. He did have a 4.4 yard per carry average in 2006, while the Texans as a whole averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, so he does appear to have some talent. He is expected to get short-yardage and goal line work along with spelling Slaton occasionally. Expect 10-15 touches per game for Taylor, and 15-20 for Slaton, but most of the rushing TDs should go to Taylor.
The problem with both these guys is the Texans' brutal schedule. Their next four games are against Baltimore, Tennesee, Jacksonville, Indianapolis. So I wouldn't break the bank to get either of these guys, they may not be startable for awhile. However, in a few weeks you may be able to pry one of them from a disgruntled owner before the Texans play Miami, Detroit, Cincinnati, and Cleveland over a 6-game stretch of the season.
Speaking of Ike, he has forced the Texans-Ravens game to Monday night. And, speaking of the Texans, Ahman Green has gone down with the inevitable injury (after a whopping 5 carries), and Steve Slaton will be starting in week 2, and possibly longer than that. Who predicted that Slaton would be the starter by halftime of week 1? Oh, yeah, that was me. Hope you picked him late in your draft as directed.
Slaton looks to be used like a poor man's Reggie Bush (and yes, I sense the irony of him playing for Houston). He'll use his speed to get to the outside, and should be dangerous catching the ball, but I don't see him running much between the tackles.
That job will go to Chris Taylor. Taylor has 28 career rushes, all of them in 2006, but the Texans' coaches love him. He did have a 4.4 yard per carry average in 2006, while the Texans as a whole averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, so he does appear to have some talent. He is expected to get short-yardage and goal line work along with spelling Slaton occasionally. Expect 10-15 touches per game for Taylor, and 15-20 for Slaton, but most of the rushing TDs should go to Taylor.
The problem with both these guys is the Texans' brutal schedule. Their next four games are against Baltimore, Tennesee, Jacksonville, Indianapolis. So I wouldn't break the bank to get either of these guys, they may not be startable for awhile. However, in a few weeks you may be able to pry one of them from a disgruntled owner before the Texans play Miami, Detroit, Cincinnati, and Cleveland over a 6-game stretch of the season.
The Fantasy Football Librarian is Our New Best Friend
Yesterday, the Fantasy Football Librarian posted a link to one of our articles, and the result was our biggest traffic day ever. So we owe a huge debt of gratitude to the librarian.
For those of you who have not heard of the Fantasy Football Librarian, you should check out her site (yes, an actual female in the fantasy football world - and she knows what she's talking about). She typically compiles links to interesting articles, and throws in her own research and analysis as well. Definitely worth checking out on a daily basis.
For those of you who have not heard of the Fantasy Football Librarian, you should check out her site (yes, an actual female in the fantasy football world - and she knows what she's talking about). She typically compiles links to interesting articles, and throws in her own research and analysis as well. Definitely worth checking out on a daily basis.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
The Seahawks are a Complete Disaster
In case you haven't heard, 3 major skill position players will be out at least until the Seahawks' week 4 bye - RB Maurice Morris, WR Deion Branch, and WR Bobby Engram.
The 'Hawks have exactly 2 receivers on their roster that have been on the team longer than 48 hours: Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne, not exactly fantasy stalwarts. They have signed mediocrities Samie Parker and Billy McMullen to fill a couple of jerseys, and QB Seneca Wallace will also get into the mix. Oh yeah, and QB Matt Hasselbeck is still recovering from back injuries that limited him throughout the pre-season.
So time to rely on the running game, right? Not so fast. Starting guard Rob Sims is out for the year with a torn pectoral muscle, so an offensive line that has not been very good the last couple of years just got weaker.
The Seahawks now have to rely on Julius Jones, who had a 3.6 yards per carry average with Dallas last year, while Marion Barber had a 4.8 yard average behind the same offensive line. The 3.9 YPC we projected for Jones in 2008 seems generous, but we will stick with it.
The good news is that the Seahawks' next two opponents, San Fransisco and St Louis, have poor run defenses, which should help Jones.
In their blowout loss to the Bills last week, the Seahawks only managed 21 carries as a team, but we will assume 22 for Jones in each of the next 2 games, as the Seahawks should keep things closer against this level of competition.
Using our True Player Value defense ratings, we have Jones with 88 yards against the 49ers and 94 against the Rams. Plus, with no receivers to throw to, he should get a fair amount of check-down passes from Hasselbeck. Even if we de-rate Jones to 3.5 yards per carry, he should get over 80 yards in each game, after adjusting for opponent. These numbers might be good enough to let Jones wrestle the full-time gig from Morris, at least until the Seahawks face stiffer competition (the Giants and Packers loom on the other side of the bye). So if you are a Jones owner, he may be startable the next couple of weeks, at which time it will be time to sell high before he faces the better run defenses and/or starts sharing time again with Maurice Morris.
The 'Hawks have exactly 2 receivers on their roster that have been on the team longer than 48 hours: Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne, not exactly fantasy stalwarts. They have signed mediocrities Samie Parker and Billy McMullen to fill a couple of jerseys, and QB Seneca Wallace will also get into the mix. Oh yeah, and QB Matt Hasselbeck is still recovering from back injuries that limited him throughout the pre-season.
So time to rely on the running game, right? Not so fast. Starting guard Rob Sims is out for the year with a torn pectoral muscle, so an offensive line that has not been very good the last couple of years just got weaker.
The Seahawks now have to rely on Julius Jones, who had a 3.6 yards per carry average with Dallas last year, while Marion Barber had a 4.8 yard average behind the same offensive line. The 3.9 YPC we projected for Jones in 2008 seems generous, but we will stick with it.
The good news is that the Seahawks' next two opponents, San Fransisco and St Louis, have poor run defenses, which should help Jones.
In their blowout loss to the Bills last week, the Seahawks only managed 21 carries as a team, but we will assume 22 for Jones in each of the next 2 games, as the Seahawks should keep things closer against this level of competition.
Using our True Player Value defense ratings, we have Jones with 88 yards against the 49ers and 94 against the Rams. Plus, with no receivers to throw to, he should get a fair amount of check-down passes from Hasselbeck. Even if we de-rate Jones to 3.5 yards per carry, he should get over 80 yards in each game, after adjusting for opponent. These numbers might be good enough to let Jones wrestle the full-time gig from Morris, at least until the Seahawks face stiffer competition (the Giants and Packers loom on the other side of the bye). So if you are a Jones owner, he may be startable the next couple of weeks, at which time it will be time to sell high before he faces the better run defenses and/or starts sharing time again with Maurice Morris.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Fantasy Impact: Patriots Receivers
Yesterday, we came up with a SWAG on Matt Cassel's passing numbers, and noted that he would have about 70 fewer completions and about 1000 fewer yards than our projections for Brady.
Today, we will try to figure out where those passes will go, or more appropriately, won't be going.
I am not going to reduce Randy Moss' numbers by a lot, because I think he will become Cassel's "security blanket." I know that if I were playing QB for the Patriots, I would just heave it in Randy's direction and hope for the best. We will have to come back and adjust his numbers later, but let's start with the lesser receivers, who are not going to get the 4th-look checkdown passes that came their way when Brady was pulling the trigger.
We had Jabar Gaffney projected for 55 catches, tied for his career high. Well, now that's not going to happen. His low-end numbers as a starter in Houston were 41 catches, and that sounds good to us. We also reduced his yards per catch from 12.0 to 11.8.
Ben Watson is not healthy right now, and has always seemed to struggle with injuries throughout his career. We had him projected for 45 catches, but now have reduced that to 35 (which is the number he had last year), which seems more reasonable.
We had projected Laurence Maroney to get more involved in the passing game with 21 catches, which was all kinds of wrong. We will put him down to 5 catches (he had 4 all of last year).
We have mentioned that Wes Welker would suffer the most from the absence of Brady, and we still believe it. The Patriots used short passes to Welker in lieu of a running game last year, and now they will actually be handing the ball off for their running game. The most catches he had in Miami was 67; we will project him for 70 this year (that is down from the 94 we originally projected).
So that brings us to Randy Moss. In order for the Patriots receiving corps to have the 282 we are projecting, we only need to take 8 catches away from Moss, leaving him with 83 for the season. That comes out to 5 catches per game, which sounds about right.
Keeping all these players (except Gaffney) at their originally projected yards per catch value gives us a total of 3293 receiving yards on the season, compared to 3280 projected passing yards. We can safely ignore the 13 yard difference.
Now we have to reduce the receiving TDs from the originally projected 33 to 24. Without going into detail, we project Moss with 11, Welker with 5, Gaffney and Watson with 3 each, Kevin Faulk with one, and Mike Vrabel to make his annual TD catch.
How does this affect the receivers' standings? Putting these stats back into our annual projections, Moss falls from the #1 receiver to the #5 receiver, Welker from the #14 receiver to the #35 receiver, Gaffney from the #46 to the #69 receiver, and Watson from the #17 to the #21 tight end.
So, in short, don't worry too much about Moss, Welker goes from a starter to a reserve, and Gaffney and Watson can be dropped.
Today, we will try to figure out where those passes will go, or more appropriately, won't be going.
I am not going to reduce Randy Moss' numbers by a lot, because I think he will become Cassel's "security blanket." I know that if I were playing QB for the Patriots, I would just heave it in Randy's direction and hope for the best. We will have to come back and adjust his numbers later, but let's start with the lesser receivers, who are not going to get the 4th-look checkdown passes that came their way when Brady was pulling the trigger.
We had Jabar Gaffney projected for 55 catches, tied for his career high. Well, now that's not going to happen. His low-end numbers as a starter in Houston were 41 catches, and that sounds good to us. We also reduced his yards per catch from 12.0 to 11.8.
Ben Watson is not healthy right now, and has always seemed to struggle with injuries throughout his career. We had him projected for 45 catches, but now have reduced that to 35 (which is the number he had last year), which seems more reasonable.
We had projected Laurence Maroney to get more involved in the passing game with 21 catches, which was all kinds of wrong. We will put him down to 5 catches (he had 4 all of last year).
We have mentioned that Wes Welker would suffer the most from the absence of Brady, and we still believe it. The Patriots used short passes to Welker in lieu of a running game last year, and now they will actually be handing the ball off for their running game. The most catches he had in Miami was 67; we will project him for 70 this year (that is down from the 94 we originally projected).
So that brings us to Randy Moss. In order for the Patriots receiving corps to have the 282 we are projecting, we only need to take 8 catches away from Moss, leaving him with 83 for the season. That comes out to 5 catches per game, which sounds about right.
Keeping all these players (except Gaffney) at their originally projected yards per catch value gives us a total of 3293 receiving yards on the season, compared to 3280 projected passing yards. We can safely ignore the 13 yard difference.
Now we have to reduce the receiving TDs from the originally projected 33 to 24. Without going into detail, we project Moss with 11, Welker with 5, Gaffney and Watson with 3 each, Kevin Faulk with one, and Mike Vrabel to make his annual TD catch.
How does this affect the receivers' standings? Putting these stats back into our annual projections, Moss falls from the #1 receiver to the #5 receiver, Welker from the #14 receiver to the #35 receiver, Gaffney from the #46 to the #69 receiver, and Watson from the #17 to the #21 tight end.
So, in short, don't worry too much about Moss, Welker goes from a starter to a reserve, and Gaffney and Watson can be dropped.
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