Still Here, Plans for off-season

Sorry I have been absent for the last few weeks - to make a long story short, never get into the rental housing market. Or put more clearly, never buy a rental property that is situated on ground that makes Heinz Field in December look stable. So after paying a boatload of money to a foundation repair company and fixing about 100 drywall cracks, I am ready to return to my true love - fantasy football.

For the off-season, here is what I plan to do -

1. Enter all the 2006 game data into my database. I currently have 2007 and (most of) 2008, so this will give me three year's of data, which I think will be good for projection baselines.

1a. Speaking of projections, I will write one or two articles patting myself on the back for 2008 projections - for instance my sleeper list from before the season has a lot of great names on it, in hindsight.

1b. I will also look for projections where I was way, way, wrong (Joseph Addai, anyone?) and see if we can learn anything from it.

2. Try to get the projection system to start spitting out 2009 projections by the time free agency starts, so I can easily make adjustments as players switch teams. This includes an easy interface to change a player's projected playing time, which could happen with free agency movement or with coaching changes.

3. Post the first set of projections shortly after the draft, giving more time during training camp to peruse camp stories and make tweaks to the ratings.

4. Figure out how many weeks of the season to use for projections. For example, in week 10 of the season, is a team's projected defensive performance indicated by an equal weighting of their performance in the first 9 weeks, or should more recent weeks be weighted more heavily?

5. Make the in-season weekly rankings spit out of the projection system more easily, so it becomes more of a cut-and-paste job to put them on the web site, so I can have more time to write quasi-interesting articles instead of being a slave to getting rankings done by the end of the week. This also includes the ability to tell the database that a player is on IR so I don' t have to remember to delete Nate Burleson every week.

On the subject of the projection/ranking software, I have a dream of it some day being a program that people would actually want to pay for, but it won't be there in 2009. However, I might be interested in giving an early version of the software to a handful of beta testers for the 2009 season. If you are interested, drop me a line.

Week 16 RB Fantasy Football Rankings

Must Starts

1. Brian Westbrook vs. Washington Redskins

The Skins are reeling and the Eagles are fighting for a playoff spot. Westbrook might be the most dynamic offensive player in the game when healthy. Look for No. 36’s number to be called a lot on Sunday and for Westbrook to eclipse the 100-yard mark and put a few balls into the end zone.

2. Steve Slaton vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders boast one of the worst run defenses in football and apparently pass defenses too after last week’s manhandling by the Patriots. Slaton has shown himself to be a 20+ carry kind of back this year and look for him to continue his hot running when the Texans head out to Oakland.

3. MarShawn Lynch vs. Denver Broncos

One of the lone bright spots for the fading Bills last week was RB MarShawn Lynch. He ran with power, with purpose, and finished with over 120 yards in the game. This week, he gets the Broncos, and their 29th ranked defense. Although the Bills are out of the AFC East Playoff race, they haven’t rolled over and died, so expect a big fantasy effort from Lynch on Sunday.

4. Thomas Jones vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Jets are desperate for a win this Sunday at Seattle and the best way to get it is to stick with what has worked: running the football. Jones has emerged as a big time threat this season on the ground and look for that to continue this weekend as he gets to face the 26th ranked defense in the Seahawks.

Sleepers:

1. Mwelde Moore vs. Tennessee Titans

Moore gets a lot of the goal line carries for Pittsburgh and in this big match-up on Sunday to decide the AFC’s top seed, the Titans will be without Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth. That is two massive losses to the line. Look for the Steelers to employ a heavy run oriented game plan and for Moore to score at least once by the goal line.

2. Kevin Smith vs. New Orleans Saints

Aside from Calvin Johnson, there’s few bright spots on this Lions’ team, but Smith is becoming one of them. The rookie has been running hard of late and appears to have a nice future ahead of him. Look for a strong fantasy effort out of him Sunday when the Saints, and their unimpressive defense, come to town.

Others with favorable match-ups:

1. Ronnie Brown vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Brown is having a wonderful year for the 9-5 Dolphins and now gets a bit of a breather against the Chiefs. Look for Miami to run all over Kansas City and for Brown to have a solid day on the ground.

2. Pierre Thomas vs. Detroit Lions

The Saints appear to have found a running back and his name isn’t Reggie Bush; it’s Pierre Thomas. The kid runs hard, is elusive, and has shown that he can take it to the house. Look for him to eat up the Lions defense as New Orleans should be playing with the lead.

3. Steven Jackson vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are playing much more competitively under Mike Singletary, but Jackson’s as dangerous as they come in the NFL. Look for a solid effort from No. 39 as he cuts and slashes his way through the Niners’ D.

Week 15 QB Fantasy Football Rankings

Must-Starts:

1. Peyton Manning vs. Detroit Lions. O-13 goes to 0-14 after this one. The winless Lions are heading to Indianapolis at a time when the Colts are on a roll and after Sunday’s 35-3 blowout over the Bengals, Peyton showed that even in blowouts he’ll get his numbers: 277 yards and 3 TDs. Look for similar numbers this Sunday and Peyton is the top fantasy QB of the week.

2. Kurt Warner vs. Minnesota Vikings. Even though the Cardinals clinched the NFC West on Sunday, it’s still too early to begin resting players before the NFL playoffs begin. And with the Cards inability to generate much from the ground game in general, look for Warner to continue his air assault on the Vikings and reach the 300-yard mark with a few scores.

3. Tony Romo vs. New York Giants. Romo has historically been a Giants killer throughout his career. And in this Sunday Night match-up, the Cowboys will be playing on pure desperation. Look for Romo to have a solid game as his line will provide him time to locate his prime targets, and for Romo to finish with at least two TDs.

4. Eli Manning vs. Dallas Cowboys. The other signal caller in the game, Eli Manning, also has a history of playing well against the Cowboys and in particular in Dallas. The Giants will look to erase Sunday’s loss to the Eagles from their memory and look for Eli to have a big game spreading the ball around to his playmakers and putting a few into the endzone.

Sleepers:

1. Jeff Garcia vs. Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have played pretty solid defense throughout the season and have clamped down on most opposing teams’ running games, so look for Garcia to have some opportunities in the passing game and for him to locate Bryant and Galloway on at least one deep pass.

2. Matt Schaub vs. Tennessee Titans. The Titans bring a dominant defense into this football game but division rivalries have been known to produce uncharacteristic outcomes. Schaub has a solid group of playmakers at his disposal and after today’s 400+ yard game, look for at least 250 this weekend.

Others with favorable match-ups:

1. Donovan McNabb vs. Cleveland Browns. McNabb will try and keep the Eagles’ playoff hopes alive and the Browns are ready for ‘09. Look for McNabb to once again enjoy a solid performance on Monday night.

2. Jake Delhomme vs. Denver Broncos. Delhomme has had his ups and downs this season but against the Broncos, he should have his opportunities. The Broncos have had trouble all season getting pressure on opposing QBs and Delhomme has the weapons to make them pay.

3. Aaron Rodgers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have mailed in 2008 and the Packers are close to doing so as well. Sitting two games back with three to play, the Packers must win out and get help. Look for Rodgers to play his part and for the passing game to come up big on Sunday.

College Football Playoff Seedings

The BCS rankings have been released, so now we can seed our imaginary Division I (or BCS bowl division, or whatever) playoffs:

December 13 - 8 games
Holiday Bowl - Boise State vs. Boston College
Sun Bowl - Ohio State vs. Northwestern
Motor City - TCU vs. Ball State
Texas Bowl - Cincinnati vs. Missouri
Independance Bowl - Oklahoma State vs. Pittsburgh
Alamo Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Emerald Bowl - Georgia vs. Michigan State
Humanitarian Bowl - BYU vs. Oregon

December 20 - 8 games
Gator Bowl - Oklahoma vs. #16
Outback Bowl - Florida vs. #15
Motor City Bowl - Texas vs. #14
Insight Bowl - Alabama vs. #13
GMAC Bowl - USC vs. #12
International Bowl - Utah vs. #11
Capital One Bowl - Texas Tech vs. #10
Chick-fil-A Bowl - Penn State vs. #9

Over the next week, I'll "pencil-sim" the December 13 games.

Something completely unrelated to fantasy football

OK, so it involves football and it is a fantasy, but I wanted to share with you my thoughts about a college football playoff.

Right now, division II does a 24-team playoff, that began on November 15 and will conclude on December 13 (Minnesota-Duluth will be facing Northwest Missouri in the championship clash). A similar playoff format for the BCS division could start on December 13 and conclude on January 10 (2 days after the scheduled 2009 BCS championship game). So it is possible. This would require 23 games, so 23 of the 34 current bowls games could be included in the scheme. The top 8 teams get a first round bye, with the 9-24 ranked teams playing to get to the next round. After that, every team is re-seeded and sent to a bowl.

For the bowls that are included, I think that the revenues would skyrocket. Since the BCS has been instituted, I watch about 2 bowl games a year - the national championship game and the one that my team is in (if they make it - which is becoming rare). The rest of the bowl games don't really have any meaning. But if all the bowl games fed into the national championship, then you would have people across the country glued to their TVs on December Saturdays. All of these bowls suddenly become relevant.

Another advantage is that you no longer have the month-plus layoff for teams heading into the championship game. I believe that this layoff is what sometimes causes one of the teams to come out flat, making the game anticlimatic (USC vs. Texas a few years ago being a major exception).

And, of course, you don't have the problems of teams that are on the outside looking in that have a good reason to believe that they deserve to be in the championship game. Texas, USC, Utah, Boise State, and Penn State can all make arguments to be in the championship game this year.

So, we will use the BCS rankings that come out later today to seed our 24 teams, then pencil-sim the results of each Saturdays games until we get to our imaginary national championship. I will try to use the teams' actual bowl performance in my results, when possible.

Here are the games that we will have

December 13 - 8 games
Holiday Bowl #9 vs. #24
Sun Bowl #10 vs. #23
Motor City #11 vs. #22
Texas Bowl #12 vs. #21
Independance Bowl #13 vs. #20
Alamo Bowl #14 vs. #19
Emerald Bowl #15 vs. #18
Humanitarian Bowl #16 vs. #17

December 20 - 8 games
Gator Bowl #1 vs. #16
Outback Bowl #2 vs. #15
Motor City Bowl #3 vs. #14
Insight Bowl #4 vs. #13
GMAC Bowl #5 vs. #12
International Bowl #6 vs. #11
Capital One Bowl #7 vs. #10
Chick-fil-A Bowl #8 vs. #9

December 27 - 4 games
Orange Bowl #1 vs. #8
Sugar Bowl #2 vs. #7
Cotton Bowl #3 vs. #6
Liberty Bowl #4 vs. #5

January 3 - 2 games
Rose Bowl - #1 vs #4
Fiesta Bowl - #2 vs #3

January 10 - National Championship Game

Sunday Morning Projection Updates

Marion Barber is out, and Tashard Choice is in for the Cowboys. Expect Choice to get about 50 yards rushing and 20 yards receiving against Pittsburgh.

There are some weather conditions that could affect the passing games in these areas:

Jacksonville at Chicago - Currently 6 degrees, expected to be in the upper teens/lower 20s by game time. No real wind, though, so the poor passing games of both teams will only suffer a little.

Philadelphia at NY Giants - 37 degrees, some snow, 20 MPH winds. You can downgrade the passing attacks some in this game. Expect Brandon Jacobs to be used a battering ram and expect a lot of touches for Brian Westbrook.

Cleveland at Tennessee - 35 degrees, sunny, 7 MPH winds. Niether of these teams has a big passing attack anyway, but they won't be affected very much.

Houston at Green Bay - 15 degrees, partly sunny, no wind. This is the game many are worrying about, but since the wind is calm, I wouldn't bench Rodgers, Jennings, or Andre Johnson in this game. However, our projection of Rodgers being the best fantasy QB of the week is in some doubt.

Kansas City at Denver - 50 degrees, mostly cloudy. Nothing to worry about, but it is always wise to check Denver's weather this time of year.

Dallas at Pittsburgh - 20 degrees, cloudy, 8 MPH winds. Expect the Steelers to try to wear down the Cowboys with Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, but the Cowboys have no "Choice" but to pass. The Steelers defense will be a bigger impediment to Romo and company than the weather.

Washington at Baltimore - 30 degrees, clear, 18 MPH winds. This game will see some of the heaviest winds, so it could also have a higher effect on the passing game. Again, niether of these teams is built upon the pass, so it shouldn't affect anyone's fantasy day too much.

Friday Projection Updates

Matt Hasselbeck (back) will miss this Sunday's game with the back problem he has been suffering with all season, so I removed him from the projections. I would add in Seneca Wallace's projection, but suffice it to say, he would go on the bottom of the list.

Wes Welker is practicing fully and expected to play.

TJ Houshmandzadeh (back) is probable and expected to play.

Josh Morgan (groin) has returned to practice and is expected to play.

Arnez Battle (foot) is listed as probable.

Ryan Grant (thumb) is expected to see his full work load.

Marion Barber (toe) has not practiced and is a game-time decision. You may want to sit him against Pittsburgh if you have anything resembling a reasonable alternative.

Matt Schaub has practiced all week and will start - unless he gets another sudden stomach virus.

Trent Edwards (groin) will not start this week. He has been replaced in the rankings with JP Losman.

Clinton Portis (neck) returned to practice in a limited fashion. See Marion Barber.

Correll Buckhalter (knee) has not practiced all week and is not expected to play.

WR Projections - Week 14

Name	Prj Rec	Prj Rec Yards	Prj Rec TDs	Fan Pts
Anquan Boldin	8	88	1.3	18
Greg Jennings	5	88	0.9	14
Roddy White	6	100	0.6	14
Randy Moss	5	76	0.9	13
Larry Fitzgerald	6	87	0.7	13
Andre Johnson	7	88	0.6	12
Calvin Johnson	4	85	0.5	12
Bernard Berrian	4	81	0.5	11
Reggie Wayne	5	73	0.6	11
Dwayne Bowe	5	73	0.5	10
Donald Driver	5	58	0.7	10
Brandon Marshall	7	83	0.3	10
Hines Ward	5	68	0.5	10
Lance Moore	5	63	0.6	10
Eddie Royal	6	70	0.4	10
Lee Evans	5	83	0.2	10
Vincent Jackson	4	54	0.6	9
Issac Bruce	4	62	0.5	9
Matt Jones	6	80	0.2	9
Santana Moss	5	65	0.4	9
Steve Smith	5	78	0.2	9
Terrell Owens	4	59	0.5	9
Wes Welker	7	81	0.1	9
Laveranues Coles	5	55	0.5	9
Kevin Walter	4	54	0.5	9
DeShaun Jackson	4	63	0.1	8
Marquez Colston	4	77	0.1	8
Santonio Holmes	4	58	0.4	8
Steve Breaston	6	67	0.2	8
Jerico Cotchery	5	60	0.3	8
Justin Gage	3	52	0.4	8
Michael Jenkins	3	51	0.4	8
Devin Hester	3	40	0.5	7
Devery Henderson	2	53	0.3	7
Derrick Mason	5	61	0.2	7
Nate Washington	3	49	0.3	7
Amani Toomer	4	44	0.4	7
TJ Housmanzadeh	7	57	0.1	7
Marty Booker	2	30	0.6	7
Marvin Harrison	4	42	0.4	7
Malcom Floyd	3	47	0.3	7
Brandon Lloyd	3	47	0.3	6
Jason Hill	4	52	0.2	6
Antonio Bryant	5	52	0.1	6
Muhsin Muhammad	4	43	0.3	6
Ted Ginn	4	55	0.1	6
Braylon Edwards	4	55	0.1	6
Ashley Lelie	2	37	0.4	6
Anthony Gonzalez	4	48	0.2	6
Mike Walker	4	59	0.0	6
Jabar Gaffney	3	41	0.3	6
Robert Meachem	2	41	0.3	6
Chris Chambers	3	34	0.4	6
Kevin Curtis	4	46	0.2	6
Mark Clayton	2	35	0.2	6
Hank Baskett	3	38	0.3	6
Bryant Johnson	3	43	0.2	6
Billy McMullen	4	55	0.0	6
Donnie Avery	4	46	0.1	5
Reggie Williams	3	35	0.3	5
Mark Bradley	4	48	0.1	5
Josh Reed	4	47	0.1	5
Rashied Davis	3	33	0.3	5
Reggie Brown	3	38	0.2	5
Derek Hagan	3	50	0.0	5
Antwan Randle El	4	38	0.1	5
Brandon Stokley	4	38	0.2	5
Domenik Hixon	3	41	0.1	5
David Patten	2	36	0.2	5
Josh Morgan	2	35	0.2	5
Harry Douglas	2	29	0.1	5
Bobby Wade	4	40	0.1	5
Chansi Stuckey	2	28	0.3	5
Roy Williams	3	33	0.2	5
Patrick Crayton	3	33	0.2	5
Koren Robinson	3	34	0.2	5
Arnez Battle	3	44	0.0	4
Tory Holt	4	38	0.1	4

TE Projections, Week 14

Standard fantasy scoring. Guys with asterisks (*) next to their names need their injury status checked before you give them the start.

Name	Prj Rec	Prj Rec Yards	Prj Rec TDs	Fan Pts
Tony Gonzalez	6	75	0.6	11
Dallas Clark	4	40	0.6	8
Donald Lee	3	21	1.0	8
Kevin Boss	3	40	0.6	8
Anthonio Gates	4	41	0.5	7
Jason Witten	5	57	0.2	7
Tony Scheffler	4	57	0.2	7
Visanthe Shiancoe	2	33	0.5	6
Zach Miller	3	56	0.1	6
Dustin Keller	4	48	0.2	6
Chris Cooley	6	52	0.1	6
Billy Miller	4	51	0.1	6
John Carlson	4	37	0.3	5
Greg Olsen	3	37	0.3	5
Mercedes Lewis	3	43	0.2	5
Owen Daniels	4	46	0.1	5
Heath Miller	3	40	0.2	5
Bo Scaife	4	39	0.2	5
Kellen Winslow	4	39	0.1	5
Vernon Davis	2	33	0.2	5
Jeremy Shockey	4	45	0.0	5
Anthony Fasano	3	33	0.2	4
Martellus Bennett	2	24	0.3	4
LJ Smith	2	22	0.3	4
Justin Peelle	2	21	0.3	4
Derek Fine	2	20	0.3	4
David Martin	2	31	0.1	4
Robert Royal	3	31	0.1	4
Todd Heap	3	24	0.2	4
Jeremy Stevens	3	30	0.1	4
Alex Smith	2	24	0.2	4
Dante Rosario	3	27	0.1	3
Ben Watson	2	25	0.1	3
Randy McMichael	3	31	0.0	3
Brent Celek	3	31	0.0	3

RB Projections - Week 14

Standard fantasy scoring. Guys with asterisks (*) next to their names need their injury status checked before you give them the start.

Name	Prj Ru Yards	Prj Ru TDs	Prj Rec Yards	Prj Rec TDs	Fan Pts
Adrian Peterson	157	1.1	9	0.0	23
Matt Forte	88	0.5	32	0.7	19
Peyton Hillis	75	1.1	27	0.2	18
Tim Hightower	60	1.6	17	0.0	17
Steve Slaton	99	0.8	19	0.1	17
Ladanian Tomlinson	91	0.8	27	0.1	17
Thomas Jones	86	0.8	14	0.3	17
Larry Johnson	92	0.6	8	0.0	14
Brian Westbrook	51	0.7	23	0.3	13
Chris Johnson	84	0.4	19	0.1	13
Ronnie Brown	56	1.0	15	0.0	13
Brandon Jacobs	74	0.9	3	0.0	13
Reggie Bush	39	0.2	55	0.4	13
Maurice Jones-Drew	32	0.9	43	0.0	13
Frank Gore	60	0.5	33	0.1	13
Michael Turner	87	0.6	1	0.0	12
Ryan Grant	97	0.3	3	0.0	12
Marshawn Lynch	55	0.4	25	0.1	11
Kevin Faulk	46	0.3	38	0.1	11
Pierre Thomas	46	0.6	19	0.1	11
Joseph Addai	55	0.5	13	0.1	10
Edgerin James	60	0.6	7	0.0	10
Jamal Lewis	63	0.4	13	0.0	10
Sammie Morris	46	0.6	14	0.0	10
Chester Taylor	36	0.4	26	0.1	10
Marion Barber*	44	0.3	27	0.1	10
Clinton Portis*	68	0.2	15	0.0	9
Steven Jackson	57	0.1	30	0.0	9
Lendale White	45	0.7	1	0.0	9
Warrick Dunn	58	0.1	20	0.0	8
Derrick Ward	44	0.1	33	0.0	8
Le'Ron McClain	41	0.4	9	0.1	8
DeAngelo Williams	59	0.1	8	0.1	8
Mewelde Moore	20	0.4	28	0.1	8
Selvin Young	64	0.2	2	0.0	8
Willie Parker	46	0.5	1	0.0	8
Leon Washington	26	0.2	25	0.2	8
Kevin Smith	38	0.3	19	0.0	8
Cedrick Benson	60	0.1	9	0.0	7
Dominic Rhodes	34	0.2	17	0.2	7
Jacob Hester	11	0.0	8	0.9	7
Ricky Williams	41	0.3	13	0.0	7
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	33	0.5	6	0.0	7
Willis McGahee	43	0.2	12	0.0	7
JJ Arrington	21	0.3	19	0.1	6
Jerious Norwood	28	0.1	23	0.1	6
Darren McFadden	37	0.1	19	0.0	6
Justin Fargas	58	0.0	4	0.0	6
Mike Karney	1	0.9	3	0.0	6
Cadilac Williams	20	0.6	0	0.0	6
Fred Taylor	31	0.1	9	0.0	5
Maurice Morris	23	0.0	10	0.2	4
Julius Jones	36	0.0	5	0.0	4

QB Projections - Week 14

I put these together while trying to choke down an Amy's Veggie Loaf, so there is no telling what kind of mistakes I could have made, because it is hard for me to see straight right now. I mean, I try to eat healthy, and most of Amy's stuff is actually pretty good (the enchiladas and Matar Panaar especially), but this was just horrid. It tasted like someone put a bunch of vegetables in a food processor, then put the result in a loaf-type form - which I guess is pretty much what a Veggie Loaf is.

Enough of that, below are the picks. As always, guys with asterisks (*) next to their names need their injury status checked before you give them the start.

You can see that the TPV rating system agrees with PF101 on the Cassel sleeper pick, but not so much on Bulger. The Cardinals give up most of their red-zone TD's through the air, but I don't see the Rams getting into the red zone too often. We'll find out who was right (if either of us) on Sunday.

Name	Prj Comp	Prj Att	Prj P Yards	Prj P TDs	Prj Int	Fan Pts
Aaron Rodgers	21	34	242	3.1	0.8	28
Drew Brees	26	39	339	1.9	1.2	22
Kurt Warner	27	39	300	2.2	0.9	22
Matt Cassel	22	33	264	1.4	0.8	20
Peyton Manning	23	37	246	2.1	1.0	19
Jay Cutler	23	37	281	1.4	1.1	19
Kyle Orton	18	30	204	2.2	0.6	19
Tyler Thigpen	16	29	190	1.6	0.9	18
David Garrard	21	33	283	0.9	0.8	18
Sean Hill	17	28	240	1.5	0.6	18
Phillip Rivers	19	30	210	2.0	0.8	17
Donavon McNabb	22	37	247	1.4	0.8	17
Eli Manning	19	31	224	1.6	0.7	17
Tony Romo	21	33	251	1.5	0.9	17
Matt Ryan	17	28	241	1.3	0.5	17
Brett Favre	22	33	237	1.6	1.2	16
Chad Pennington	20	30	240	0.6	0.5	16
Gus Frerotte	17	29	216	1.5	1.3	16
Matt Schaub	22	32	224	1.1	1.1	15
Ben Roethlisberger	17	29	217	1.1	1.0	15
Jason Campbell	20	32	189	0.6	0.3	12
Jamarcus Russell	13	25	175	0.8	0.4	12
Joe Flacco	17	28	171	0.7	0.8	12
JP Losman	17	25	212	0.4	0.6	11
Ryan Fitzpatrick	21	35	150	0.2	0.9	11
Jeff Garcia	19	29	169	0.4	0.3	11
Kerry Collins	16	27	166	0.6	0.3	10
Daunte Culpepper	12	23	160	0.8	1.5	10
Jake Delhomme	16	27	162	0.7	0.8	9
Marc Bulger	16	28	147	0.5	0.9	8

Suspensions Rain Down and Other News

The NFL has brought down 4-game suspensions on 6 players for taking a dietary supplement spiked with the illegal substance Bumetanide.

Three of these suspensions will have an impact on fantasy football.

First off, Duece McAllister has been suspended. Hopefully, you were not planning on starting Duece, who has been averaging roughly 5 touches per game for the past several weeks, but this does mean that Pierre Thomas should maintain some value (10-15 touches per game), even as Reggie Bush is phased into the offense.

Also, Vikings defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams have been suspended. The Vikings have a great run defense (-34% TPV rating), and the ability of these monsters to be immovable objects on the offensive line is a big reason why. Fred Evans and the undersized Otis Grigsby are listed as the Willams' backups on the Vikings web site, and it is hard to believe that they will be able to clog the line (or the toilets) like Kevin and Pat. So an average running back that would have been an instant bench decision against the Vikings before this week might be worth a second look now. Keep on eye on this to see how it develops.

Other news heading into week 14:

Kellen Winslow (ankle), Carson Palmer (elbow), Ben Utecht (foot), and Plaxico Burress (dumbass-itis) have already been ruled out for this week.

Trent Edwards (groin), Ryan Grant (thumb), Marion Barber (toe), Ahmad Bradshaw (neck), and Clinton Portis (neck) all have injury situations that bear watching as the week wears on.

Matt Schaub looks likely to play this week, and Peyton Hillis will be the featured back in Denver, at least for one more game. After that, who knows what Shannahan will do.

Welcome, Pro Football 101

You might notice the post below by our new contributor, Pro Football 101. We have decided to add another blogger to increase the amount of (useful) content on the site, especially in the light of the last few weeks, were my "real job" has not given me time to do much but put up weekly rankings. Anyway, hope you enjoy the increased content.

Of course, we now run the risk of making conflicting predictions, but if so, we will remedy it the way any good blog does - we will erase the bad prediction after the fact, and tout the fact that we were right!

Week 14 QB Fantasy Football Rankings

Must Starts

1. Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis Rams. Warner and his offense have had a tough go of it these past two weeks, as they were beaten by better football teams from the NFC East, but this is the week that we begin to hear the Warner MVP chants again.

Heading back to Arizona, the hapless Rams come to town and bring with it its suspect defense. Look for Warner to locate his talented trio on the outside and eclipse the 300-yard mark with at least three TDs.

2. Peyton Manning vs. Cincinnati Bengals. I’m not sure what happened on Sunday, but Manning certainly disappointed many fantasy owners with his 125 yard, two INT performance vs. the Browns. And since his defense couldn’t get off the field, he had very little time in which to work with.

This week, back at home, we like Manning and his offense to bounce back against the Bengals and for the QB to throw for at least 250 with a couple of scores.

3. Aaron Rodgers vs. Houston Texans. The lone bright spot to this Packers team of late has been Rodgers and the passing game. They’re definitely not the reason why Green Bay is sitting at 5-7.

This week, they get the Texans, and with that, ample opportunities to put up big numbers in the passing game. Look for Rodgers to locate Jennings and Driver and post another solid day through the air.

4. Drew Brees vs. Atlanta Falcons. Even in an off game by Brees (three INTs vs. Tampa Bay), he still gets his as evidenced by the nearly 300 yards and two TDs he threw yesterday.

Against Atlanta, this is a football game of desperation; if the Saints lose, they are officially done in ‘08. Look for Brees to respond with another big game at home and put up the fantasy numbers (300 yards and a few scores) that we’re all accustomed to.

Sleepers

1. Matt Cassel vs. Seattle Seahawks. Cassel came crashing back to earth hard in Sunday’s loss to the Steelers. His 169 yards and four turnovers was not the type of game fantasy owners were hoping for.

This week, his Patriots travel out to Seattle in what should be a pretty entertaining offensive game. The Seahawks have been unable to stop anyone on defense, and that trend will continue this week.

2. Marc Bulger vs. Arizona Cardinals. With RB Steven Jackson in the lineup, the Rams are a completely different team. They can compete. His presence also creates balance for the offense and allows Bulger the ability to target his receivers for some big gains. The Cards are anything but world beaters on defense so expect Bulger to do well in Arizona and for Holt and Avery to be on the receiving end of some long gains.

Other matchups we like

1. Eli Manning vs. Philadelphia Eagles. With the absence of WR Plaxico Burress, teams are challenging Eli to beat them by putting eight and nine guys in the box. Eli has done just that. Look for DC Johnson to try this approach once again and once again, for Manning to put up solid numbers.

2. Brett Favre vs. San Francisco 49ers. The Jets are going to want to come out strong in this one after laying an egg to the Broncos on Sunday. Without having to worry about a strong 49ers’ pass rush, look for Favre to have time to locate his outside receivers and rookie TE Dustin Keller and for the end result to be strong.

3. Ben Roethlisberger vs. Dallas Cowboys. If star DE/LB DeMarcus Ware can’t go this weekend, that makes this Cowboys’ defense look entirely different. The lack of a consistent pass rush will allow Big Ben the time he needs to locate his talented group of receivers and he should be able to deposit at least two balls into the end zone.